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NNFCC
The changing face of the planet
The role of Bio-based Plasticson global land use change
Dr Adrian HigsonJune 2012
NNFCC
Company VisionWe view bio-based technologies as key components of the low carbon economy delivering economic, social and environmental benefits.
We believe the bioeconomy will create sustainable business opportunities for feedstock suppliers, technology and project developers, manufacturers and investors.
A specialist bio-based economy consultancy based in York, UK.
Company MissionTo provide clients with a holistic view of feedstock, technology, policy and market development across the bioeconomy, enabling them to make informed business decisions and develop sustainable business strategies.
NNFCC
economy
bio-economy
bio-based economy
The aggregate set of economic operations in a society that use the latent value incumbent in biological products and processes to capture new growth and welfare benefits for citizens and nations. (OECD)
Activity associated with the use of biological products (plants, animals, micro-organisms) to produce energy and materials
Activity associated with the use of biomass to produce energy
and materials
Terminology
NNFCC
Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011 – IEA preliminary estimates
Europe is on track to spend over USD500 billion on oil imports this year, which is well in excess of the Greek government’s USD370 billion debt - IEA
Why the interest?
NNFCC
Bio Chemicals and Bio-Based Polymers (all areas of economy)
Market size~ 50 million tones
1%
7%1%
20%
54%
5%7%
4%1%
Chemical Derivatives Naval Stores Natural Products
Oleochemicals Biopolymers Amino Acids
Alcohols Aliphatic acids Other
Fermentation Products
NNFCC
ADM
Amyris/Michelin
Anellotech
BioAmber
Biocaldol
BioMCN
Braskem
Butamax
Cathay Industrial Biotech
Colbolt TechnologiesDSM
DOWDraths
DuPont
Eastman Chemicals
Global Biochem
Global Bioenergies
Glycos Biotechnologies
Green Biologics
Greencol Taiwan Corporation
GenomaticaGevo
Goodyear/Genencor
India Glycols
Metabolic Explorer
Myriant
Natureworks
NovephaPurac
Rennovia
Reverdia (DSM/Roquette)
SolvayTMO
OPX Bio
Verdezyne
VinythaiVirent
Zeachem
Methanol
Formic Acid
Ethanol
Ethylene
Ethylene Oxide
Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
Acetic Acid
Ethyl acetate
Epichlorohydrin
Acetone
isoPropanol
Propylene
Propylene Glycol
1,3-Propanediol
Lactic acid
Acrylic Acid
n-Butanol
iso-Butanol
iso-Butylene
Butadiene
Succinic acid
2,3-Butanediol
1,4-Butanediol
Tetrahydrofuran
Isoprene
Adipic acid
HMDA
Benzene
Toluene
Paraxylene
Terephthalic acid
Styrene
Market expansion and development activity
Currently over 30 companies actively commercialising over 50 bulk chemicals
Companies working on bio-based chemicals
Bio-
base
d ch
emic
als
NNFCC
Market building - European Lead Market Initiative
• Standards, labels and certification
• Legislation promoting market
development
• Product specific legislation
• Legislation related to biomass
• Encourage Green Public Procurement
• Financing and funding of research
NNFCC
Ethylene Polyethylenes
Styrene Monomer
Ethylene Oxide/Glycol
EDC
Other
Polymers/Rubbers
Polyester
PVC
Alpha Olefins
PVA
Ethanol60%
7%
14%
12%
7%
Bio-based chemical platforms
Ethanol production ~ 70 million tonnes
Ethylene production ~ 110 million tonnes
PET Collaborative
NNFCC
Succinic Acid 1,4-ButanediolPolybutylene
Terephthalate
Copolyester Ethers
Thermoplastic Polyurethanes
Spandex Fibres
Tetrahydrofuran
Solvent
Polytetramethylene Ether Glycol
g-Butyrolactone
Fine & Speciality Chemicals
N-Methyl -2-Pyrrolidone
Fine & Speciality Chemicals
2-Pyrrolidone
Fine & Speciality Chemicals
N-Vinyl-2-Pyrrolidone
Polyvinyl Pyrrolidone
Deicers/Coolent
Plasticisers
Fuel Additives
Bio-based chemical platforms
NNFCC
Politically Driven
Consumer Pull
Raw Material
Technology Push
Right place, wrong time
Wrong place, right time
Right place, right time!
Why now?
Climate ChangeMandates/Support
Commodity differentiationPrice volatility
Industrial BiotechGreen chemistry
Brand owner focusEnvironmentFunctionality
NNFCC
Bio-based chemicals – Novel or drop in?
Strengths• Drop in – known targets and downstream products• Novel – exploits attributes of biomass or biological
processing
Weaknesses• Drop in – number of unit operations required• Novel – requirement for product development
Opportunities• Drop in - rapid route to market through existing
infrastructure and know how• Novel – provides new or improved functionality
Threats
• Drop in – production never achieves cost competitiveness
• Novel – immature supply chain and market awareness
NNFCC
Bio-based chemical outlook
Strengths• Consumer preference• Reduced carbon footprints & fossil energy use• Novel / Improved function
Weaknesses• Low volume / High costs• Immature supply chain• Market confusion
Opportunities• Oil price volatility• Capture C3 and C4 markets• Co-development with fuel industry
Threats• Feedstock supply• Alternative feedstock (coal, gas)• Environmental pressure
NNFCC
Biomass – A love hate relationship!
Strengths• Available on demand• Carbon source
Weaknesses• Cost• Physical nature
Opportunities• Energy generation (heat and power)• Liquid transport fuels• Chemicals and materials
Threats• Competition for land• Environmental pressure
NNFCC
Client questions
• What’s the value proposition in bioplastics?– Function vs renewable content
• What does the environmental footprint look like?– greenhouse gas emissions, water impacts
• How big is the potential market opportunity/impact?– niche or mainstream– true rate of development
• What do the resource requirements look like?– Availability, price, impact on other markets
• How will technology develop?– Synthetic biology, biomass crops etc
Time horizons202020302050
NNFCC
Do we have enough land to feed the planet and produce the low carbon energy, fuels and materials needed by a population expected to reach 9 billion
by 2050?
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Land availability and use
Global arable land could be doubled
However, what is the limit of sustainable expansion?
What are the environmental and societal implications of expansion and land use change?
NNFCC
Chemical drivenPolitical support for biofuel wanes
Limited commercial biotech breakthroughsIndustry based on arable crops
BioeconomyPolitical support for bioeconomyBiotech breakthroughs expand to
chemicalsIndustry based on biomass & arable crops
Biofuels stalledCurrent political support for biofuel
remainsLimited commercial biotech breakthroughs
Industry based on arable crops
Biofuel drivenPolitical support for biofuel grows
Biotech breakthroughs limited to biofuelIndustry based on biomass crops
NNFCC scenarios
How to view the future
NNFCC
Biopolymer volume fixed as a % of overall market
Plastic market growth rates?
Which biopolymers will achieve a significant place in the market?
Production technology?
Production geography?
Feedstock preference?
Bio-based content of polymers?
Questions, variables and assumptions
NNFCC
Future development Hurdles• Lignocellulose deconstruction• Fermentation scope and yields• Downstream processing
Game changers• Synthetic biology• Synthesis gas fermentation
NNFCC
Biopolymer Scenarios - land requirements (2030)
All plas
tics
All pac
kagin
g
Realisti
c
05
101520253035404550
Chemical drivenBiofuel stalledBiofuel drivenBioeconomy
% o
f ava
ilabl
e la
nd
Polymer demand – 428 million tonnesLand availability – 250-800 million ha (Source FAO)
NNFCC
Regional DevelopmentSustainable agriculture
Established agri supply chainsStrong technology baseLimited political support
Agricultural sustainability?Land availability?
Strong political supportAccess to growing markets
Sustainable agricultureEstablished agri supply chains
High residue availabilityStrong technology baseStrong political support
Established cultivation and processing
Available arable landHigh crop yields (sugar cane)
Good residue availability (bagasse)
Good access to growing markets
Large arable land potential
Limited access to skillsLimited access to markets
NNFCC
12 Principles for sustainable biofuel production– Legality– Planning, Monitoring and Continuous Improvement– Greenhouse Gas Emissions– Human and Labour Rights– Rural and Social Development– Local Food Security– Conservation– Soil– Water– Air– Use of Technology, Inputs and Management of Wastes – Land Rights
Sustainability through project controlRound Table on Sustainable Biofuels
NNFCC
Use our existing resources better by driving innovation
Migrate to non-food feedstock like wastes, agricultural residues, algae
and lignocellulosic crops
Push policies towards sectors with limited alternatives
Mitigation Strategies
NNFCC
recycle
raw material
supply chain
products
end of life
cultivation
raw l
supply chain
fuel
combustion
raw material
Energy CycleMaterial Cycle
Maximising resource use
NNFCC
The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy
for more information contact us
Email - enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk
+44 (0) 1904 435182
Follow us on Twitter @NNFCC
• Future Market Analysis
• Feedstock Logistics Planning
• Sustainability Strategy
Development
• Technology evaluation & associated
due diligence
• Project feasibility assessment
• Policy and regulatory support
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