The potential for further emission reductions in the EU - Markus Amann

The potential for further emission reductions in the EU

Air Science-Policy Forum

April 15, 2013, Dublin, Ireland

Markus Amann

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Measures are available to further reduce

air pollution impacts in the EU

Potential gains from further policy interventions:

• 60-70 mio years of life lost + 2,500 less premature deaths

• Protection of biodiversity in 95,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas against N

deposition

Life shortening PM

Impacts indicators for 2025

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

TSA

P-2

01

3

TSA

P-2

01

2

TSA

P-2

01

3

TSA

P-2

01

2

TSA

P-2

01

3

TSA

P-2

01

2

TSA

P-2

01

3

TSA

P-2

01

2

HealthPM

HealthO3

Eutro-phication

Acidi-fication

Imp

act

ind

icat

or

rela

tive

to

20

05

CLE-2005 MTFR-CLE MTFRPremature deaths O3

Eutrophication Natura2000 Forest Acidification

Remaining problem areas in2025

Outlook: EU emissions to 2050

Further SO2 and NOx

cuts from climate

strategies,

but dedicated air

pollution measures will

be important, especially

for PM, NH3 and VOC

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

ns

SO2

Baseline - CLE

Baseline - MTFR

Decarb - CLE

Decarb - MCE

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

ns

NO

x

Baseline - CLE

Baseline - MTFR

Decarb - CLE

MCE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

ns

PM

2.5

Baseline - CLE

Baseline - MTFR

Decarb - CLE

Decarb - MCE

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

to

ns

NH

3

Baseline - CLE

Baseline - MTFR

Decarb - CLE

Decarb - MCE

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050M

illio

n t

on

s V

OC

Baseline - CLE

Baseline - MTFR

Decarb - CLE

Decarb - MCE

SO2

VOC NH3

NOx

PM2.5

Blue: BAU baseline, Red: climate policy + healthy diet scenario

Mitigation potential for SO2

TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025

Further potential in 2025: 33%

Key measures:

• Industry:

– Stricter controls on industrial

process emissions

– FGD/low S fuels for industrial

furnaces

– FGD for refineries and coke

plants

• Domestic sector:

– Low sulfur coal/briquettes for

small stoves

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 CLE Furtherpotential

MTFR

Mill

ion

to

ns

SO2

AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants

SO2 emissions in 2005 and 2025

Mitigation potential for NOx

TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025

Further potential in 2025: 25%

Key measures:

• Industry:

– SCR for cement plants

– SCR/SNCR for mid-size boilers

– Stricter controls on some

industrial process emissions

• Power sector:

– SCR/SNCR for mid-size boilers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 CLE Furtherpotential

MTFR

Mill

ion

to

ns

NO

x

AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants

NOx emissions in 2005 and 2025

Mitigation potential for PM2.5

TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025

Further potential in 2025: 45%

Key measures:

• Domestic sector:

– Modern biomass stoves with

lower emissions and higher

energy efficiency

• Agriculture:

– (Enforcement of) ban of

agricultural waste burning

• Industry:

– Stricter PM controls on some

industrial processes

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005 CLE Furtherpotential

MTFR

Mill

ion

to

ns

PM

2.5

AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants

PM2.5 emissions in 2005 and 2025

Mitigation potential for NH3

TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025

Further potential in 2025: 30%

Key measures:

• Agriculture:

– Efficient (‘low emission’)

application of urea fertilizer

– Low nitrogen feed

(pigs, dairy cows, poultry)

– Low emission application of

livestock manures;

liquid and solid

– Closed storage of manures

and new low emission housing

(pigs, poultry)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2005 CLE Furtherpotential

MTFR

Mill

ion

to

ns

NH

3

AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants

NH3 emissions in 2005 and 2025

Mitigation potential for VOC

TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025

Further potential in 2025: 40%

Key measures:

• Solvents:

– Further substitution

(low-solvent and water-based

products and processes)

• Domestic sector:

– Modern biomass stoves/boilers

(lower emissions & higher

energy efficiency)

• Agriculture:

– (Enforcement of) ban of

agricultural waste burning

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 CLE Furtherpotential

MTFR

Mill

ion

to

ns

VO

C

AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplants

VOC emissions in 2005 and 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

bill

ion

Eu

ro/y

r

Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)

Emission control costs

Many of these measures are cost-effective

and yield high (health) benefits

Marginal benefits exceed marginal costs

for at least 75% of the potential

from all measures

Total costs and health benefits of further emission reductions

0

50

100

150

200

250

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

bill

ion

Eu

ro/y

r

Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)

Benefits range

Emission control costs

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Mar

gin

al c

ost

/be

nef

its

(bill

ion

Eu

ro/%

gap

clo

sure

)

Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)

Marginal benefits (range)/%

Marginal costs/%

Marginal costs and marginal benefits

Cost-effective solutions imply

uneven distribution of emission control costs

In a cost-effective scenario (developed for the TSAP revision):

Additional costs (5.4 bn €/yr) :

– 32% in domestic sector

– 21% in industry

– 20% agriculture

– 14% solvents

– 12% power sector

These shares a different from costs for current legislation:

– 55% road transport,

– 12% power,

– 10% non-road, 9% industry,

– 2% agriculture

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

bill

ion

Eu

ro/y

r

Domestic

Agriculture

Power

Ind. combustion

Ind. processes

Solvents

Additional emission control costs by sector

Conclusions

• A range of measures is available that could yield significant improvements

of air pollution impacts in a cost-effective way, where benefits exceed

costs at a high margin. Many of these measures are already applied in

some countries, but not community-wide .

Changing entry points for future emission reductions:

• Climate policies can contribute to reductions of SO2 and NOx,

especially for sectors that have already tight emission controls.

• Further controls of PM, NH3 and VOC require action through dedicated

air pollution policies, especially for (dispersed) sources in sectors that

have contributed less to emission reductions in the past.