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Steve Jurvetson's presentation on Disruptive Innovation at TTI/Vanguard's [next] in San Francisco on December 10, 2013. http://www.ttivanguard.com
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STEVE JURVETSON
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
[ ]
DFJ Global Network
Evermore Moore
Electronics, April 19, 1965
Source: Ray Kurzweil (each dot is a computing machine)
Moore’s Law — A Recurring Catalyst
Why does technology accelerate?
“All technologies are combinations of technologies that already exist.” — • Combinatorial Explosion • Creates Economy
“Science quickly became the greatest tool for making new things the world has ever seen. Science was in fact a superior method for a culture to learn.”
—
—
“Throughout history, the engine of human progress has been the meeting and mating of ideas to make new ideas. The human race will prosper mightily in the years ahead, because ideas are having
sex with each other as never before.” • Urbanization • Interdisciplinary Disruption • Globalization
Global Network Effects Further Accelerating Change
Months from Launch
Users
explosive
syn bio agriculture
post-CMOS era manufacturing robots & AI
new space
Disrupting Many Industries
New Space
The Information Systems of Biology
Proteins crystallized
Imaging resolution
Genes mapped
Data: Rob Carlson, company forecasts
Carlson’s Curve
Gene Sequencing READ
Gene Synthesis WRITE
$10,000 genome
$100 genome
Eve Biomedical
Sources: “DNA sequencing via motion”, Stanford U. , US Pat No: 7,556,922, Ecoli RNAP data and Optical trap system. W J Greenleaf, S M Block Science 2006;313:801-801, T7-RNAP in Magnetic Trap: SUNY and UMDNJ: McAllister lab: Richard T. Pomerantz et al., Nano Lett., Vol 5, No 9,2005.
Eve Bio: a possible path to ubiquitous sequencing
Synthetic Biology: Gen9 Gene Printer
• Parallel Chip synthesis • Picoliter scale • 250,000 at once
• Pooled Assembly • Mut-S Error
Correction
• Automated QC • Sequence
verified
Oligo Synthesis
Gene Assembly
Quality Control
Chip2Gene
1.5 Gb
Enzyme Homologs
150 Mb
Human Drug Targets (Proteins)
200 Mb
Polyketides (Small Molecules)
GenBank Release 194 260,000 Organisms 190 Gb (billion base pairs) Doubling every 1.5 years
What to build?
Pleistocene Park
GMOs for Food, Chemicals, and maybe Fuels
AgraCast
“To support humanity’s needs, we will have to grow more crops in the next 50 years than in the past 10,000 years combined.” Chris Keely, Monsanto
Design, engineer, evolve
Sugars 1,4-Butanediol (BDO)
Building Complex Systems
• Nanotech
• Synthetic Biology
• Computer Science
• Innovative Organizations
…whether to design or evolve?
The Problem with Evolution
• Subsystem Inscrutability
- Black box defined by its interfaces
- No “reverse evolution”
• No simple shortcuts across the iterations
- Simulation ~ Reality
- Beauty from irreducibility
• Locus of Learning is Process, not Product
• Robust, within co-evolutionary islands
Robots & AI
“We actually think quantum machine learning may provide the most creative problem-solving process under the known laws of physics.” - Google Blog
Google’s First Quantum Computer
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Num
ber o
f Qub
its
1
100
1,000
10 FOR DISCRETE OPTIMIZATION
PROBLEMS
Competitive Performance with Classic Computers
Faster than all computers Faster than the universe
10,000
4q Calypso
16q Europa II
28q Leda
128q Rainier 4 512q Vesuvius 4
“Quantum computers have the potential to solve problems that would take a classical computer longer than the age of the universe.” — Professor David Deutsch, Oxford
Rose’s Law
Danny Hillis, The Pattern on the Stone “The greatest achievement of our technology may well be the creation of tools that allow us to go beyond engineering – that allow us to create more than we can understand.”
Beyond Engineering
Efficiency Summary
Accelerating Technological Change
- Interdisciplinary Renaissance
- IT innervates $T markets
- More Black Swans
- Perpetual driver of disruption
Virtuous cycle for entrepreneurs
a great time for the new
THANK YOU
Steve@DFJ.com
Iterative Algorithms & Evolved Systems
• Consider:
- Cellular automata
- Genetic programming
- Analog Circuits & Antennae
- Danny Hillis: Sort Algorithms
- Neural networks
- Quantum computers
- Wisdom of Crowds
The Problem with Evolution
• Subsystem Inscrutability
- Black box defined by its interfaces
- No “reverse evolution”
- Tweak the process not the product
• No simple shortcuts across the iterations
- Simulation ~ Reality
- Beauty from irreducibility
The tradition of design…
• Simple Problems
• Control
• Brittle
• Subsystem Clarity - Portable, Modular
• Top Down - Inheritance of Scale
Design
Dichotomy
• Simple Problems
• Control
• Brittle
• Subsystem Clarity - Portable, Modular
• Top Down - Inheritance of Scale
• Complex - Transcendence proof
• Out of Control
• Robust, Resilient, Adaptive - Co-evolutionary islands
• Inscrutable subsystems
• Bottom Up - Hierarchical subsumption
- Layers of abstraction
- Path dependence
Design Evolution
Innovation Management
• Cognitive Diversity > Ability
• Disagreement > Consensus
• Voting Policy > Coherence or Comprehensibility
• Communication Tuning > Leadership
AI Implications
• Cut & Paste Portability?
• Locus of learning: Process, not Product - Would we bother to reverse engineer?
- No hard take off?
• Co-evolutionary islands - accustomed environment (differential immunity)
• Path dependence - algorithm survival
- AI = Alien Intelligence defined by sensory I/O
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