View
92
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Scenario modelling:A peri-urban futures initiative
Kath Phelan & Bill Fish
Peri-urban Futures
The research project- Scenario modelling- Rural scenarios- Urban settlement scenarios
Workshop- Group work on developing scenario criteria
Conclusion- Discussion of groups’ scenarios - Applicability of scenario modelling
Peri-urban Futures: New Initiative
2 Year initiative – a collaboration between Spatial Vision, RMIT and La Trobe- Other researchers (University of Melbourne)
- Supporting State and local government
Scenario formulation to support peri-urban planning- Which planning questions?
- Which research concerns?
Sound spatial modelling framework- Robust
- Transparent
- Defensible
Purpose – Rural Landscape Scenario Modelling
Scenario modelling is about:
The testing of alternative policy positions.
Scenario modelling achieves this by exploring three basic questions:
What will happen?
What can happen?
How can a specific target be reached?
Peri-urban Futures Study Area
- 7 Local Government Areas
- Defined by Western and Calder corridors
- 52 settlements including Ballarat & Bendigo
- Covers part of two Regional growth areas, Loddon Mallee South and Central Highlands
Suitable Conceptual Framework
Method: Supply
Rural Land Supply Based Upon:- Land Occupancy, AND- Local Planning Zone Subdivision Provisions
Method: Demand
Victoria in Future 2012 Dwelling Projections 2011-2041
- Dwelling based Rural / Urban Apportionment Rules
Method: The Constraints
Assign a “Constraint” profile to
each Cadastral land parcel:
- Environmental values
- Intensive agriculture
- Climate related impacts
(flood, wildfire risk, sea level rise)
- Prescribed water catchments
- Groundwater management areas
- Heritage values
Impacted (Yes/No) and % Impacted
Native Vegetation = ‘Yes’ Impacted 20%
BMO = ‘Yes’ Impacted 7%
WMO = ‘No’ Impacted 0%
Method: Development Pressure
INFRASTRUCTUREDistance to major roadsDistance to rail commuter nodesDistance to bus nodesAccess to NBN Broadband – Optic FibreAccess to NBN Broadband – Fixed Wireless
DEMOGRAPHICPopulation DensityHistoric population growth (1996-2011)Historic dwelling growth (1996-2011)SEIFA disadvantage indexSEFIA advantage index
ENVIRONMENTDistance from CoastDensity of significant landscapeDensity of vegetationDistance from waterbodies and rivers
SETTLEMENTSDistance from MelbourneDistance to towns (Services weighted)Distance to towns (Population weighted)Distance from townsIdentified Growth Areas (UDP)
….Formerly referred to as ‘Attractiveness’ indicators
Outcomes: Likely rural parcel take-up (2012-2041)
Business as Usual Rural Preservation
Outcomes: Profile of parcels used to satisfy demand (2041)
Bushfire Risk Flood Risk Catchments Groundwater Significant Vegetation Agricultural Land0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Macedon Ranges Shire
Business as Usual Rural Preservation
Dwel
ling
take
-up
(201
1-20
41)
Population re-distribution to urban settlements
Rural Preservation:Capacity of townships to absorb
transferred rural dwelling demandBusiness as Usual
Regional Housing Futures in four towns
Ballarat Bendigo
Bendigo case study
Scenario Criteria Density
Business as usual greenfield
Development at current trend densities
12 dwellings per hectare
Higher density greenfield
Maximum yield of parcels over one hectare
25 dwellings per hectare
Dual occupancy infill Two lot development on existing occupied and vacant residential parcels
13 dwellings per hectare
Activity centre infill Development occurs on sites within 400m radius of BZs
35 dwellings per hectare
Bendigo case study
Scenario Criteria Density
Residential infill Development occurs on R1Z sites identified by CoGB
35 dwellings per hectare
Other redevelopment Residential development occurs on infill sites outside CBD zoned Business and Industrial identified by CoGB
35 dwellings per hectare
CBD development Development on sites determined as appropriate, to heights defined by CBD Strategy
140 dwellings per hectare
Bendigo case study: greenfield
Bendigo case study
Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Where should the region’s 75,661
projected new dwellings go (by
2041)?
- 60,650 in urban settlements
- 15,010 in rural areas
Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Example scenario: Tenement control
Scenario description
- Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties
- New dwellings should instead be built in urban settlements
- Preference for growth in urban settlements along transport corridors
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
- 60,650 in urban settlements
- 15,010 in rural areas
Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Scenario criteria
- Urban settlements: particularly Ballarat and Bendigo, also Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh,
Maryborough
- Transport corridors
- Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water,
sewerage
- Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
- 60,650 in urban settlements
- 15,010 in rural areas
Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Rationale for criteria
- Growth in urban settlements: protects rural landscape including agricultural land,
native vegetation and animal species
- Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards eg. Bushfire, flood
- Transport corridors: potential to travel using methods other than car
- Smaller settlements without basic infrastructure cannot support growth
- Higher residential density development: protects existing streetscapes and housing
stock
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
- 60,650 in urban settlements
- 15,010 in rural areas
Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Policy and regulatory implications
- Change to Councils’ Municipal Strategic Statements to explicitly protect rural
landscapes from development and direct dwelling demand to well serviced urban
settlements
- Regulation: Planning zone approach
• Restrict minimum lot sizes in Farm Zone
• Require minimum residential densities in urban zones:
eg. 20 dwellings per hectare in Residential 1 Zone in greenfield area
35 dwellings per hectare on infill sites
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
- 60,650 in urban settlements
- 15,010 in rural areas
Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Scenario description - Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties
- New dwellings in urban settlements
- Preference for growth along transport corridors
Scenario criteria - Ballarat, Bendigo, Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh, Maryborough
- Transport corridors
- Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water,
sewerage
- Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements
Rationale for criteria - Protect rural landscape (agricultural land, native vegetation and animal species)
- Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards
- Potential to travel using methods other than car
- No growth in smaller settlements without basic infrastructure
- Protects existing streetscapes and housing stock
Policy and regulatory implications
- Municipal Strategic Statements
- Planning zones
Conclusion
Discussion of groups’ scenarios
Applicability of scenario modelling
Recommended