John Yeomans - First Capital - Balanacing OnNet backhaul

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John Yeomans

Director, FirstCapital

Director, SharedBand

+44 7870 655647

john@yeomans.org.uk

www.firstcapital.co.uk

www.sharedband.com

Balancing OnNet backhaul with

OffNet WiFi DSL

The future of cellular with WiFi

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Introduction

John Yeomans, FIET

telecom strategy and technology finance background

Director, Sharedband

access management software

bonded DSL leader

applications extend to 3G and WiFi

Director, Worksnug

social network to help mobile workers access wifi

Director, FirstCapital

financial adviser to European technology businesses

combine industry and financial knowledge

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What everyone is saying

1. Backhaul

As big a bottleneck as spectrum

Carrier Ethernet, in various forms, is the ubiquitous solution

2. WiFi Offload

Do it more, but it’s still only a small minority of traffic

Don’t allow voice to ‘leak out’

Generally winning over femtocells, because of ubiquity/market position

Debate between tight and loose coupling with mobile network

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What this paper is going to say

1. Backhaul

Agreed, backhaul is congested, but make life easier with more

wifi offload to alleviate suburban/urban congestion….

and in the process change the choices of backhaul architecture

and technology

2. WiFi Offload

Plan for it a lot more still: target 80% plus of traffic by 2014

VOIP over wifi is inevitable and desirable – plan for it, and encourage it

Loose coupling initially is the way….but it will migrate to a

new more tightly coupled architecture

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Typical urban/suburban cellular infrastructure : base stations in Blue

Population 60,000(for full town: 120,000)

Area c. 4 x 4 km, hilly

Households 25,000

Operators 4/5

Base stations c. 60(T Mobile and Orange not up to date)

Broadbands c 20,000

Sites c. 35

Places needing extremely

high capacity, resilient

cover 1

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As you move to smartphones, data dominates usage

My own usage per month

300 texts = <1 Mbyte

300 voice mins = 30 Mbyte

300 Mbytes data = 300 MByte

So adding data typically means 10x the level of bit carriage

My package costs less than 1.3x a voice only package

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The effect of 20 x data growth (about 5 years by most forecasts)

Option 1: No new focus on wifi offload Say 10% of traffic is offloaded

Sites Constrained by planning Maybe 2-4 x numbers, at most

Already sub 1km distances

Backhaul c. 10 x capacity per cell site More sites and more capacity

Shift to Gig-E and fibre but favours wireless relay to core,

many technology options existing nodes as access points

Option 2: Heavy focus on wifi offload 50% + of traffic offloaded

Now only coping with 10x traffic growth for cellular network.

Wireless mesh/access point architecture less strongly favoured.

Massive savings.

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Is 50% to 80% wifi offload realistic or desirable?

Realistic Absolutely

Personally 70% Netcounter statistics over 6 months, now

See also Mobile Data Offload: How much can wifi deliver April 2011, CoNext which

estimated 65% is offloadable now & John Yeomans paper, Service And Pricing Strategy

For Mobile Operators Long Term Survival, March 2011, Informa Mobile Broadband

Conference, Amsterdam

Desirable Yes, too

Users Prefer it. Far higher bit rates. More reliable.

Economics Strongly favours it

Operators Loss of control? Loss of revenue?

‘Unmanaged’ service? Or a foundation for profits?

2.5GByte 1GByte

WiFi Cellular

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The connection, control and management problem

1. Is there a problem? Why do operators want on-net?

2. Rely on the device rather than just the network for management

Software in Smartphones : a monitoring app. with usage data sent to operator

3. Use the (mobile) IP protocol and modify the data network architecture

From: To:

On-net

Off-net

Voice

Data

mobile

fixed

Voice

Data

Access CoreOperator’s managed

core network – use

IP routing to bring

data back on-net

…if you need to

Public internet

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What’s the next stage? It’s as easy as A B C (access, backhaul, core)

More intelligence in the device to manage routing: cellular versus WiFi

currently there is no handoff: arguably unnecessary for data

But as streaming traffic over smartphones grows, handoff becomes essential

data streaming, video streaming & voice

Architecture now a logical wireless access, backhaul, and core network structure

fixed

Access Backhaul Core ABC

Operator’s managed core

network – managed data,

video and voice streaming

Public internet

Wireless access

mobile

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Can a Smartphone manage this level of IP complexity?

Yes, easily

The handoff decision (wifi / cellular) is placed in the handset, as now

Joining the packets from different transmission routes back together is a

managed service performed in the core network

Managing seamless handover between cellular and wifi is the

same problem as bonding DSL lines properly

Joining together and break apart streams of packets over different lines or routes

Compensating for delay, jitter, speed variation and other changes in transmission

parameters over time

SharedBand does this now, and is working with tier 1 international carriers

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Reality check

Does this matter and is it right? YES

With acknowledgement to Adam Gryzbicki, ATT Oregon, Paper on Mobile Broadband Technology Path, Nov 2010

and to Zanran.com for making graphical information so easy to find

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Commercial impacts

Option 1: Batten down the hatches

Disallow VOIP / streaming on handsets

Maximise on-net traffic

….and watch your cost structure go up FAST

over 5 years and your user base migrate to

advanced VOIP, with its presence and other

services functionally better than cellular

Option 2: Open it all up

Create a mobile solution that uses the most

economic access method (cellular or wifi)

Offload 70% of mobile data by 2015

Manage the connections from the Smartphones

Into the network, for reliable streaming

services and management of network handoff

….danger of some short term revenue loss

….but also some big 2-3 year capex savings

….and the opportunity to retain voice and

data traffic later rather than see it

migrate

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Conclusion

WiFi offload strategy forms an integral part of backhaul planning

It leads towards a different vision of a mobile network

Use the best access network (WiFi when available, usually)

but provide the best coverage too (cellular)

The handset as the first place to manage handoff, not the base station

with intelligent access/routing software, linked to the core network

Core managed network services

protecting voice, and building new streaming and managed service revenues

managing access integrity, over cellular and wifi

Thank you