Bednets And Bureaucrats

The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill

Joe IndvikICF International

joe.indvik@gmail.com

Bednets and Bureaucrats

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Global Malaria Incidence

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Malariais a threat to half of the global population, mostly developing countries.is preventable and treatable if you have the resources.

Climate Change

is spread by…

Mosquitosbreed in hot, wet locations.increase malaria incidence as their population grows.

will be bolstered by...

The Infection Process

HumanInfection

Bite

Sporogony

Bite

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Temperature

Malaria Transmission

Temperature and Malaria

Faster metabolism

Shorter larvae stage

Shorter incubation More mosquito deaths

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Malaria can hit vulnerable communities hard…

Vendaland, South Africa

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…but is preventable with simple technologies like bednets.

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The Malaria Triangle

Low-Income Communities

Malaria Incidence

Climate Change

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Low-Income Communities

Malaria Incidence

Climate Change

Tend to live in regions that will be

hardest-hit by…

Increases the prevalence of…

Is dangerous primarily in…

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Malaria is one example of damages caused by climate change.

Malaria is preventable but already kills hundreds of thousands of people per year.

Emissions from the developed world hit the developing world hardest.

The prevention of climate change is equally complex.

How?

How much?

Is it worth it?

Why haven’t we done it?

Reducing EmissionsThe four big questions:

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How?

Quantity of fossil fuels produced

Price

The Economics of Climate ChangeExternal Costs

Private Cost

Demand

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Quantity of fossil fuels produced

Price

The Economics of Climate ChangeExternal Costs

Private Cost

Demand

Public Cost

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ActualOptimal

Putting a price on carbon aligns the private cost of climate

change with the costs to society.

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How much?

Climate Damage Pathways

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Carbon Emissions

More Solar Energy

Trapped

Global Warming

Biological Disruption

Geographical Disruption

Economic Disruption

Political Upheaval

Social Conflict

Demographic Change

Health Impacts

Net Cost

Economic Activity

Effect on Atmosphere

Effect on Earth Systems

Effect on Social Systems

The relationship between carbon emissions and net social cost

The relationship is complicated! This makes it hard to determine the best carbon price.It is made even more complex by…

Feedback LoopsPermafrost Melting

WarmingMore

Permafrost Melts

Organic Matter

Decomposes

Methane Released

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Is it worth it?

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The Economics of Climate ChangeThe Damage Function

Atmospheric CO2

Damage

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If we could perfectly predict climate change, the solution

would be simple.

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The Economics of Climate ChangeThe Damage Function

Atmospheric CO2

Damage

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?But there is a range of uncertainty around potential damages

And a chance of low-probability, high-impact events resulting from feedback loops

i.e. the end of civilization as we know it

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Why haven’t we done it?

Why haven’t we done it?

NIMBY“Not in my back yard”

NIMTO“Not in my term of office”

Tragedy of the Commons

Concentrated pain, diffuse pleasure

Uncertainty

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How?Put a price on carbon

How much?Substantially Under 450 ppm

Is it worth it?The better question is: Can we risk it?

Why haven’t we done it?Human Nature

Reducing EmissionsMy answers to the big questions:

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Bednets and Bureaucrats

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For the first time in history

Both the actions of bureaucrats on the other side of the world and the availability of simple technologies like bednets will dictate the well-being of half the world’s population.

Policy, politics, wealth, and health interact on the global stage like never before.

Can we find a solution?