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The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill. Presented to Southern Model UN Conference in November 2010.
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The costs and complexities of climate change, from South Africa to Capitol Hill
Joe IndvikICF International
Bednets and Bureaucrats
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Global Malaria Incidence
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Malariais a threat to half of the global population, mostly developing countries.is preventable and treatable if you have the resources.
Climate Change
is spread by…
Mosquitosbreed in hot, wet locations.increase malaria incidence as their population grows.
will be bolstered by...
The Infection Process
HumanInfection
Bite
Sporogony
Bite
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Temperature
Malaria Transmission
Temperature and Malaria
Faster metabolism
Shorter larvae stage
Shorter incubation More mosquito deaths
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Malaria can hit vulnerable communities hard…
Vendaland, South Africa
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…but is preventable with simple technologies like bednets.
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The Malaria Triangle
Low-Income Communities
Malaria Incidence
Climate Change
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Low-Income Communities
Malaria Incidence
Climate Change
Tend to live in regions that will be
hardest-hit by…
Increases the prevalence of…
Is dangerous primarily in…
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Malaria is one example of damages caused by climate change.
Malaria is preventable but already kills hundreds of thousands of people per year.
Emissions from the developed world hit the developing world hardest.
The prevention of climate change is equally complex.
How?
How much?
Is it worth it?
Why haven’t we done it?
Reducing EmissionsThe four big questions:
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How?
Quantity of fossil fuels produced
Price
The Economics of Climate ChangeExternal Costs
Private Cost
Demand
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Quantity of fossil fuels produced
Price
The Economics of Climate ChangeExternal Costs
Private Cost
Demand
Public Cost
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ActualOptimal
Putting a price on carbon aligns the private cost of climate
change with the costs to society.
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How much?
Climate Damage Pathways
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Carbon Emissions
More Solar Energy
Trapped
Global Warming
Biological Disruption
Geographical Disruption
Economic Disruption
Political Upheaval
Social Conflict
Demographic Change
Health Impacts
Net Cost
Economic Activity
Effect on Atmosphere
Effect on Earth Systems
Effect on Social Systems
The relationship between carbon emissions and net social cost
The relationship is complicated! This makes it hard to determine the best carbon price.It is made even more complex by…
Feedback LoopsPermafrost Melting
WarmingMore
Permafrost Melts
Organic Matter
Decomposes
Methane Released
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Is it worth it?
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The Economics of Climate ChangeThe Damage Function
Atmospheric CO2
Damage
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If we could perfectly predict climate change, the solution
would be simple.
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The Economics of Climate ChangeThe Damage Function
Atmospheric CO2
Damage
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?But there is a range of uncertainty around potential damages
And a chance of low-probability, high-impact events resulting from feedback loops
i.e. the end of civilization as we know it
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Why haven’t we done it?
Why haven’t we done it?
NIMBY“Not in my back yard”
NIMTO“Not in my term of office”
Tragedy of the Commons
Concentrated pain, diffuse pleasure
Uncertainty
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How?Put a price on carbon
How much?Substantially Under 450 ppm
Is it worth it?The better question is: Can we risk it?
Why haven’t we done it?Human Nature
Reducing EmissionsMy answers to the big questions:
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Bednets and Bureaucrats
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For the first time in history
Both the actions of bureaucrats on the other side of the world and the availability of simple technologies like bednets will dictate the well-being of half the world’s population.
Policy, politics, wealth, and health interact on the global stage like never before.
Can we find a solution?
