Agua y Cambio Climático 1 sea level-rise-and-the-caribbean

Sea Level Rise & the

Caribbean by Maya A. Trotz

Associate Professor

Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering

University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

Focus Latin America and the Caribbean: Americas' Regional Panel on Water and Climate Change

World Water Week

Stockholm, Sweden

8/24/11

The 4 Points

life now our future

interconnectedness opportunities

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

Life Now • Do we build in vulnerable zones?

• Do we flood?

• Do we destroy natural mangrove habits?

• Do we properly manage our freshwater resources?

• Do we have access to clean and safe water?

• Do we manage runoff properly?

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

life now (our vulnerability)

life now

Sea level rise and the Caribbean. © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

Photo by O. Dalrymple

Guyana

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean

life now Guyana, 2005

Photo by M. A. Trotz

Leptospirosis?

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

life now Siparia, Trinidad & Tobago, 2009

Photos by E. O. Omisca

Dengue?

Malaria?

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

life now St. Mary, Jamaica, 2007

Photo by M. A. Trotz

Our Future • Will we have more droughts?

• Will we have more intense rainfall?

• Will our temperatures increase?

• What will be the level of the sea?

Sea level rise and the Caribbean

our future (climate predictions)

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

Projected change in runoff

Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

our future

Change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, in percent, under

the SRES A1B emissions scenario and based on an ensemble of 12 climate

models. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd. [Nature]

(Milly et al., 2005), copyright 2005

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

PROJECTED % CHANGE IN

PRECIPITATION

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Climate Change & Water in the Caribbean.

our future

Taken from U. Trotz, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center

PROJECTED INCREASE oC

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

our future

Taken from U. Trotz, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center

Dolphin fish

Habitat becomes

less favourable

+1°C

1oC impact on dolphin fish

U Trotz - CCCCC 14th June 2011 13

our future

Sea level rise

© M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

our future

Historic sea-level rise:

a. 0 mm/yr (Suriname)

b. 1.3 mm/yr (Venezuela)

c. 1-3 mm/yr (Insular Caribbean)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

predictions over the next century:

2 mm/yr – 9 mm/yr

Dalrymple, OK, Vulnerability assessment of coastal communities in Guyana, Center for Resource Management &

Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, MSc, 2004.

IPCC, 1996. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Interconnectedness • How will sea level rise impact coastal aquifers & water

supplies?

• How will sea level rise impact critical industries?

• How will sea level rise impact built infrastructure?

• How will sea level rise impact food?

Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

interconnectedness

(projected impact)

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

© M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

interconnectedness Guyana News

Dalrymple, OK, Vulnerability assessment of coastal communities in Guyana, Center for Resource Management &

Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, MSc, 2004.

Impacts on Aquifers

Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

interconnectedness

http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/indicators/saline_intrusion.jsp, accessed 7/19/11

Barbados West Coast aquifers already showing signs of salt water intrusion

Grenada 1.0 SLR will lead to salinisation of wells in South peninsula of Grenada

Guyana Coastal aquifers already experiencing salt water intrusion. Will >> with SLR

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

IMPACTS ON TOURISM SEA LEVEL RISE(SLR)

• Impacts of SLR significant for all states (average capital costs of up to 48% of GDP in 2080)

• Rebuild costs disproportionately high for smaller island states

• Rebuild costs of tourist resorts very high in many cases (average of up to 28% of GDP in 2080)

• Key infrastructure (ports, airport and power plants) in most countries vulnerable to 1m SLR

• Impacts increase significantly from 2050 to 2080

(murray.simpson@ouce.ox.ac.uk, www.caribsave.org, www.bb.undp.org)

U Trotz - CCCCC 14th June 2011 18

Opportunities • Regional Collaboration

• Optimized resource utilization

• Engaged citizenship

• Education & authentic science

© M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

opportunities

(adapt/mitigate)

Caribbean Modelling Initiative

Sea level rise and the Caribbean

opportunities

Climate Studies Group, Mona (Climate Studies Group, Mona‐CSGM)‐Jamaica

• University of the West Indies, Cave Hill‐Barbados

• Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)‐Barbados

• Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)‐ Cuba

• Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)‐Belize

Region as a system?

• Water

• Food

• Energy

• Human capacity

• UWI,

• Local

universities

• Technical

institutes

• Common

primary &

secondary

curriculum.

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

Relocation & smart design opportunities

Climate, energy, water, materials, human

nexus – new building codes, demand side

change, new training

Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

opportunities

Adapted from http://www.environmentwriter.com/archives/tag/water-reuse © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

cacce.net

Sea level rise and the Caribbean

opportunities

National Science

Foundation Climate

Change Education

Partnership (CCEP)

Program.

Phase 1 funded ($1

million US)

Phase 2 due 2012

($10 million US) © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.

© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation

opportunities

• The Formal Education Spectrum

• K-12 students

• K-12 teachers

• College and Graduate Students

• College Educators, Researchers, and Climate Scientists.

• Informal Science Education Audiences and

Professionals

• Business/Regulatory/Governmental Organizations and

Professionals at the Territorial/Regional/Municipal level,

focused on the Built Environment:

• Regional/Urban Planning Councils

• Water/Coastal Management organizations

• Design/Engineering Firms

• Others, as Relevant and Appropriate

CACCE Targets

© M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

opportunities

Building Community Engagement & Resilience

Water Awareness Research and Education

• Builds sustainable model for P-20 and community partnership to raise

environmental awareness, improve livelihoods and health & protect water bodies.

• Field studies, laboratory experiments, P-20 curriculum, community outreach.

Weather station

Difference between weather & climate

How do we build the human

capacity needed to develop

innovative solutions to deal

with sea level rise or other

climate impacts?

© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation

opportunities

matrotz@eng.usf.edu 27

Adapted from http://www.ifad.org/remittances/maps/latin.htm

Accessed 11/22/08.

Country/Island %GDP

Guyana 30.1

Honduras 24.8

Suriname 21.2

Costa Rica 2.0

Remittances as a % of GDP (2006)

OECD countries

Country/Island %

Guyana 83

Jamaica 82

Haiti 79

Brazil 2

% of highly skilled

migrants (2000)

Dumont, J., & Lemaitre, G. (2005). Counting immigrants and expatriates in OECD countries: A new perspective OECD Social Employment and Migration Working Papers, 25, 1-45.

Diaspora engagement

© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation

opportunities

Sea level rise and the Caribbean.

QUESTIONS? matrotz@usf.edu

© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.