Food for All on a Changing Planet

Food For All on A Changing Planet

Photo: Matthieu Paley, National Geographic

Kimberly NicholasLund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden

www.kimnicholas.com@KA_Nicholas

2

Imag

e: M

ark

Voge

l

4

Smallholders: 1/3 people, grow 70% of food

5Photo: Martin Mejia/AP, in The Guardian

6Photo: Reuters/Paulo Whitaker

12% ice-free land used for crops (size of South America)

Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004

7Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

22% ice-free land used for grazing livestock (size of Africa)

Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004

8

Land is limited on the blue planet…

NASA PPM

9

ALL water on Earth(1384 km sphere)

Liquid fresh water (270 km sphere)

Fresh water in lakes & rivers(56km sphere)

Data from Shiklomanov, In Gleick 1993,“Water in Crisis.” Visualization by USGS Water Science Photo Gallery

Water Resources Are Limited…

10

Agricultural production is 92% of human water footprint

Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012, PNAS

Phot

os: N

ation

al G

eogr

aphi

c

11

Traditional fertilizer

Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic

12

Modern fertilizer

Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic Photos: UNEP 2011, National Geographic

13

Photo: Mishka Hnner, 2013. Tascosa Feedyards waste lagoon, Texas. Compiled from Google Earth.

Livestock manure: from valuable nutrient to toxic waste

14

Livestock “probably largest sectoral source of water pollution”

(In US: 55% erosion, 37% pesticides, 33% N & P)(FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow)

Photo: NASA

We’re losing diversity

15http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/food-variety-graphic

We need a new food paradigm

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

Right now, we have too little food security…

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

… and too much environmental harm

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

We need more real, fair & resilient food

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

… and less environmental damage

Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature

Which causes more global warming?

Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic

Livestock are major greenhouse gas sources

Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic

Sources: FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow; 20-year global warming potentials: IPCC WG1 2013, Table 8.A.1; Transport: IPCC WG3 2014, SPM

18%Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent):

14%• 37% methane (84x stronger than CO2)• 65% nitrous oxide (264x stronger than CO2)

23Henson, 2011, “Warming World: Impacts by Degree.”

Climate change threatens crop yields

24

What about quality?

Climate change threatens wine quality

25Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American

Climate change threatens wine quality

26Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American

27

Hunger remains a problem for 1/8

28

Progress in poverty & food security

FAO, IFAD, & WFP (2013): State of Food Insecurity in the World

29

Food has never been so plentiful

Source: Our World In Data, Max Roser

What’s the leading determinant of health around the world?

30

Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington

What we eat determines global health

32Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington

Diets kill more than disease

Cassidy et al., 2013, ERL

Only 59% of calories produced become foodCurrent crops could feed 4 billion more if fed

directly to people

Global meat consumption has increased dramatically since 1960

Godfray et al., 2010, Science

https://xkcd.com/1338/

Slide courtesy Emily Cassidy. Source: Cassidy et al., 2013, ERL.

Meat is inefficient to produce human nutrition

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef uses 28x more landCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

beef

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef uses 11x more waterCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

beef

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef produces 5x more greenhouse gasesCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

beef

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef produces 6x more reactive nitrogenCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs

Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS

Beef has the largest footprint of animal products

How much meat are we consuming?

Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com

How much meat is recommended?

~0.7 grams / kilogram

90 kilogram person (200 lbs)

63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per year

Otten et al., 2006. Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient Requirements. National Academies Press. Slide from Emily Cassidy

Source: FAO Food Balance SheetsSlide from Emily Cassidy

Source: FAO Food Balance SheetsSlide from Emily Cassidy

Recommended intake

Most countries are consuming more meat than recommended for health - and the environment

How much meat are we consuming?

Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com

Too much! Ukraine: 48.5 kg/person

Recommended level

How can we do better?

Health and environmental goals align in plant-based diets

49

Sweden’s new diet guidelines: health + environment

2015. “Find your way to eat greener, not too much and be active”

50

Stop wasting 30-40% of food grown

http://itm.marcelww.com/inglorious/

Urban Food Forestry

Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology51

Urban trees could meet substantial food needs

Very Food Insecure:

Plant 1%city land

Recommended fruit intake: Plant 2% city land

52Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape EcologyCase study in Burlington, Vermont, USA

City planners recognize benefits of trees for wildlife…

Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology

“wildlife” N= 30 urban forestry master plans

80

60

40

20Perc

ent m

entio

ning

con

cept

Andr

ea C

olon

77%

53

…but not for people.

Bren

dan

Calla

han

Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology

13%

“wildlife” “food”N= 30 urban forestry master plans

80

60

40

20Perc

ent m

entio

ning

con

cept

Andr

ea C

olon

77%

54

2 in BC! Saanich and Selchelt

“In terms of immediacy… and feasibility… [reduced meat consumption] is clearly the most attractive opportunity. Give up meat for one day a week initially, and decrease it from there.”

Decrease meat consumption

Dr. Rajendra PachauriChair of IPCCQuoted in The Guardian, 7 September 2008 Photo: Elizabeth Ruiz

Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

Smaller portions of meat, meat-free meals go a long way

“Meat is a wasteful use of water and creates a lot of greenhouse gases. It puts enormous pressure on the world’s resources. A vegetarian diet is better.”

Go further

Lord Nicholas SternFormer World Bank chief economistQuoted in The Daily Mail, 27 October 2009

Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com

Vegetarians had half the carbon footprint of heavy meat eatersFish-eaters and vegetarians had similar carbon footprintsVegans go the extra mile

“We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2°C targetwith a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.” Hedenus et al., 2014, Climatic

Change

EAT Forum 2014

Some exciting models

Picture from @kaityarnall

62Quote by Michael Pollan; graphic design by Rob Kelley, namtab.com

We vote with our forks three times every day

Photo: Seven Stans, National Geographic

If we’re serious about addressing climate

change, we have to get serious about reducing meat

consumption.@KA_Nicholas Image: Bill Hogan on vox.com

High-impact actions for individuals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

65Wynes & Nicholas, in prep

Based on: • 42 sources (25

peer-reviewed)• 16 countries• 161 scenarios