[Global HR Forum 2014] Technology, Demography and the Future of the Workforce

Technology, Demography And The

Future Of The Workforce

The darkness is the light One Horn of Plenty for us all!

Malthus Theory of Population

We Are Feeding 7.2 Billion Today

• No major food crisis

• Population does not double every 25 years as Malthus predicated

• It took 123 years to double from 1 billion to 2 billion people

• Fertility drops as societies develop

Malthus Underestimated Human Ingenuity

• Agricultural technology allowed food production to outpace population growth

• Global food output increased by 60 percent from 1938 to 1950s

• Global food output more than doubled from 1950s to 2001

Technology Advances

Can We Continue To Escape Malthus?

• World population could exceed 10 billion by 2050

• 90% of growth is forecasted to take place in Asia and Africa

• Increase the equivalent of two Chinas and two United States

Neo-Malthusians: Climate Change And Resource Depletion

Demographic Challenges: Population Growth In Developing World

India Population Projected To 1.7 Billion

Urbanization Challenge: Move More Than 3 Billion People Into Cities

• In 1800, world only 3% urbanized

• In 2014, 53% live in cities

• By 2050, 80% of humanity (about 8.5 billion) could be city dwellers

• Trend fastest in developing countries

China’s Urbanization

India’s Urbanization

Global Aging Challenge: People Everywhere Are Living Longer

Longer Life Expectancy • In 1800, Swedes on

average lived to age 32; today Swedish life expectancy is 83 years

• From the 1950s to 2014, India’s life expectancy rose from 38 to 64; in China, from 41 to 73 years

• By 2050, people may live beyond 120

Global Increase In Seniors From 2014 total of 531 million to 2050 projection of 1.5 billion

Increase In Older Workers

• By 2050, American seniors will have more than doubled, from 41 to 86 million, while those who are 25 to 54 are expected to grow by only 2%

• In service sector, number of older workers already increased sharply

The Future Workforce: More Women, Part-time, Mobile Workers

Over Time, Technological Change Accelerates Exponentially

Green Revolution: Higher Agriculture Yields Transforming Workforce

• In China, 250 – 300 million farmers already moved to cities, with more to follow

• In Asia and Africa, which account for 95 percent of world’s farmers, 1.5 – 2 billion people will move to urban centers

McKinsey’s 12 Disruptive Technologies

Cognitive Technology

• Robots will be decisive part of future, doing more than manual labor

• Technologies will generate trillions of dollars in a new economy

• Tech will give a huge boost to humanity, allowing us to better our physical and intellectual environment

Creative Destruction 47% of all jobs are likely to be lost to robots in 20 years

Biggest Challenge: Human Enhancement Technology

• Allows us to change ourselves and even control our own evolution

• Supermen will emerge through genetic enhancement and device implanting

• It is crucial to preserve humanity’s core values while seizing on new technologies

Future Frontiers: Think the Unthinkable & Do the Undoable

Solution to rapid urbanization? Hi-tech self-sustaining floating metropolis

Vertical Farming: Feeding The World

• Produce crops year-round anywhere on the earth’s surface

• Increase agricultural yields fourfold to thirtyfold, depending on crop

• Conserves water; eliminates runoff by recycling black water.

• Drastically reduces pollution

100 Billion Animals Required To Feed 10 Billion People

• In 2050, at least 500 million tons of meat will be required to feed the world

• Today, 30% of the world’s land mass is used for grazing

• Additionally, land is used to produce animal feed (grains)

• Today, 70% of U.S. grain is animal feed, enough to sustain over 800 million people

• Animals constitute major source of pollution

Cultured Meat To Feed The World

• In vitro meat produced by “tissue-engineering” technology will eliminate many problems associated with raising animals

• Meat parts such as tenderloin will be customized in vats

• First cultured hamburger “raised” in 2013

The Last Office Worker?

New Division Of Labor

• The singularity is further away

• A new division of labor will be formed and should be respected

• There will be an intelligent symbiosis between humans and robots

Jobs For Humans Jobs For Robots

— Launching a Startup — Inspiring, Innovating — Pattern Recognition — Effective Communications — Rapid Decision Making — Software Development — Higher Level Cognition

— Manual, Repetitive Work — Complex Computations and Analysis

Technology Divergence Creates Jobs

Millions of people will start their own small businesses to create and sell innovative, self-made products

Grand Strategy

• Integrate technological, economic, political and social objectives with public policies that have vision and the ability to handle the complexity of the transition to the second machine age

Build a workforce that embraces innovation and new technologies, and focuses on higher-order cognitive competencies

Future workers can stay ahead of the technology curve by constantly adopting and adapting to technological advances through educational innovations. Employers, educators, and governments must work together to re-design the existing education system to nurture an ongoing learning culture

• Education innovation

• Overhaul higher education and labor laws

• Free education for advanced cognitive skills for all working-age people

Invest In Future Human Capital

Safety Net For Displaced Workers

• Guarantee basic living

• Encourage learning new skills

• Free higher-order cognitive competency education

• Idle person tax

These challenges are serious but no match for human ingenuity Acknowledgment: all images are collected from the public domain