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Technological breakthroughs over the next few decades, including unprecedented lifespan longevity, mass utilization of 3-D printing, artificial intelligence, robotics and dramatically increased computing capacities, and the possibility of implanted electronic devices, offer the possibility of disruptive transformation in the workforce. What impact will technology have on the workforce? Will demography, such as significant population growth in sub-Saharan Africa and increased labor mobility worldwide, matter in shaping the new workforce? Kenneth Weinstein, President of the Hudson Institute, will try to give answers to these questions. He will also share his opinion on what will matter for the workforce a half-century from now.
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Technology, Demography And The
Future Of The Workforce
The darkness is the light One Horn of Plenty for us all!
Malthus Theory of Population
We Are Feeding 7.2 Billion Today
• No major food crisis
• Population does not double every 25 years as Malthus predicated
• It took 123 years to double from 1 billion to 2 billion people
• Fertility drops as societies develop
Malthus Underestimated Human Ingenuity
• Agricultural technology allowed food production to outpace population growth
• Global food output increased by 60 percent from 1938 to 1950s
• Global food output more than doubled from 1950s to 2001
Technology Advances
Can We Continue To Escape Malthus?
• World population could exceed 10 billion by 2050
• 90% of growth is forecasted to take place in Asia and Africa
• Increase the equivalent of two Chinas and two United States
Neo-Malthusians: Climate Change And Resource Depletion
Demographic Challenges: Population Growth In Developing World
India Population Projected To 1.7 Billion
Urbanization Challenge: Move More Than 3 Billion People Into Cities
• In 1800, world only 3% urbanized
• In 2014, 53% live in cities
• By 2050, 80% of humanity (about 8.5 billion) could be city dwellers
• Trend fastest in developing countries
China’s Urbanization
India’s Urbanization
Global Aging Challenge: People Everywhere Are Living Longer
Longer Life Expectancy • In 1800, Swedes on
average lived to age 32; today Swedish life expectancy is 83 years
• From the 1950s to 2014, India’s life expectancy rose from 38 to 64; in China, from 41 to 73 years
• By 2050, people may live beyond 120
Global Increase In Seniors From 2014 total of 531 million to 2050 projection of 1.5 billion
Increase In Older Workers
• By 2050, American seniors will have more than doubled, from 41 to 86 million, while those who are 25 to 54 are expected to grow by only 2%
• In service sector, number of older workers already increased sharply
The Future Workforce: More Women, Part-time, Mobile Workers
Over Time, Technological Change Accelerates Exponentially
Green Revolution: Higher Agriculture Yields Transforming Workforce
• In China, 250 – 300 million farmers already moved to cities, with more to follow
• In Asia and Africa, which account for 95 percent of world’s farmers, 1.5 – 2 billion people will move to urban centers
McKinsey’s 12 Disruptive Technologies
Cognitive Technology
• Robots will be decisive part of future, doing more than manual labor
• Technologies will generate trillions of dollars in a new economy
• Tech will give a huge boost to humanity, allowing us to better our physical and intellectual environment
Creative Destruction 47% of all jobs are likely to be lost to robots in 20 years
Biggest Challenge: Human Enhancement Technology
• Allows us to change ourselves and even control our own evolution
• Supermen will emerge through genetic enhancement and device implanting
• It is crucial to preserve humanity’s core values while seizing on new technologies
Future Frontiers: Think the Unthinkable & Do the Undoable
Solution to rapid urbanization? Hi-tech self-sustaining floating metropolis
Vertical Farming: Feeding The World
• Produce crops year-round anywhere on the earth’s surface
• Increase agricultural yields fourfold to thirtyfold, depending on crop
• Conserves water; eliminates runoff by recycling black water.
• Drastically reduces pollution
100 Billion Animals Required To Feed 10 Billion People
• In 2050, at least 500 million tons of meat will be required to feed the world
• Today, 30% of the world’s land mass is used for grazing
• Additionally, land is used to produce animal feed (grains)
• Today, 70% of U.S. grain is animal feed, enough to sustain over 800 million people
• Animals constitute major source of pollution
Cultured Meat To Feed The World
• In vitro meat produced by “tissue-engineering” technology will eliminate many problems associated with raising animals
• Meat parts such as tenderloin will be customized in vats
• First cultured hamburger “raised” in 2013
The Last Office Worker?
New Division Of Labor
• The singularity is further away
• A new division of labor will be formed and should be respected
• There will be an intelligent symbiosis between humans and robots
Jobs For Humans Jobs For Robots
— Launching a Startup — Inspiring, Innovating — Pattern Recognition — Effective Communications — Rapid Decision Making — Software Development — Higher Level Cognition
— Manual, Repetitive Work — Complex Computations and Analysis
Technology Divergence Creates Jobs
Millions of people will start their own small businesses to create and sell innovative, self-made products
Grand Strategy
• Integrate technological, economic, political and social objectives with public policies that have vision and the ability to handle the complexity of the transition to the second machine age
Build a workforce that embraces innovation and new technologies, and focuses on higher-order cognitive competencies
Future workers can stay ahead of the technology curve by constantly adopting and adapting to technological advances through educational innovations. Employers, educators, and governments must work together to re-design the existing education system to nurture an ongoing learning culture
• Education innovation
• Overhaul higher education and labor laws
• Free education for advanced cognitive skills for all working-age people
Invest In Future Human Capital
Safety Net For Displaced Workers
• Guarantee basic living
• Encourage learning new skills
• Free higher-order cognitive competency education
• Idle person tax
These challenges are serious but no match for human ingenuity Acknowledgment: all images are collected from the public domain