View
449
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Live long and prosper?
Demographic trends and their impact on living standards
Intergencommission.org 2
People are living longer
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables
Average expected years of life at birth for females by generation
Intergencommission.org 3
Each generation is living longer than the next (on average)
Survival rates for different generations, Males, 1896 to 2015
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables
Intergencommission.org 4
Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge too
• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer lives
Intergencommission.org 5
Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge too
• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer lives
• Collectively there are concerns that an ageing population will raise the tax burden (or lower available support) for younger generations
Intergencommission.org 6
Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge too
• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer lives
• Collectively there are concerns that an ageing population will raise the tax burden (or lower available support) for younger generations
• But we are not our grandparents. How we live is dynamic, not a static thing
Intergencommission.org 7
Changing lives: 1) investing more in their education
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables
Proportion of children in full-time education, 1953 to 2010
Intergencommission.org 8
Changing lives: 2) having children at later ages (and fewer)
Proportion of women by age of mother having first child
Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales, 2013
Intergencommission.org 9
Changing lives: 3) working longer
Female employment rates by age for different generations
Source: Resolution Foundation analysis using Labour Force Survey microdata
Intergencommission.org 10
Changing state: Not just dealing with longevity, but also cohort size. That complicates things. There are a lot of baby boomersNumber of births by years (millions)
Source: ONS, UK & England Wales live births, 2015
Intergencommission.org 11
The Baby boomer generation boosted the young population in 1950s and 1960s…
UK population by generation, 1965
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK
Intergencommission.org 12
Boosted the working age population in the following decades…
UK population by generation, 1985
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK
Intergencommission.org 13
Boosted the working age population in the following decades…
UK population by generation, 2010
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK
Intergencommission.org 14
…and are are now set to speed the increase in the ageing of the population
UK population by generation, 2036
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, UK
Intergencommission.org 15
Traditional support ratio suggests a striking problem about to hit, but this is too simplistic an argument
Support ratio (ages 20-64/(under 20 + 65 plus))
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK
Intergencommission.org 16
An ‘effective’ support ratio (working v non-working population) is less dramatic – though still simplistic
Effective support ratio (employees/non-working)
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK, Labour Market Statistics, BoE historic data
Intergencommission.org 17
Longer lives bring opportunity and challenge• Demographics are changing people’s approach
to life, work and family formation
• Younger generations are set to benefit from continued gains in longevity
• But they also face different challenges to older generations, particularly from work, housing, wealth and retirement planning
• These are all issues the Intergenerational Commission will focus on in the coming months
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables
Live long and prosper?
Demographic trends and their impact on living standards
Recommended