Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032

CMHCApril 1st, 2014

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Metamorphosis…

We have come a long way from this….

To this….

but…

Smithore Dreamstime.com

We have also come to this…

GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet

Gross Depletion of the Planet

+ Yield - Costs= Profit

Gross Depletion of the Planet

And this…

The last time the world was 3C warmer

the sea-level was up to

25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

We have also come to this…

And this…

The power of our vision

must be stronger than

the power of our fears

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt

"Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”

- George Lucas

Istanbul,Turkey

So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?

What are the Valueson which we shall build our future city?

THE OLD THE NEWMoving Cars Moving PeopleIndividualism Community

The Functional City The Happy City

A Private Capitalist Economy

A Sharing Co-operative Economy

Domination over Nature

Harmony with Nature

Eight Themes1: A New Green Economy

2: Poverty & Inequality

3: Affordable Housing

4: The Downtown Eastside

5: Transportation without Oil

6: Our Homes

7: Our Neighbourhoods

8: How Do We Get There?

Moving from a CAPITALIST

COOPERATIVEEconomy

1: The New Green Economy

A COOPERATIVEEconomy

Businesses flourish in harmony with other businesses, workers,

community and nature.

The Community

Economyin 2032

Neighbourhoods across Vancouver have set up Urban Village Business Networks

Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales for financial mutual support and cooperation.

Emilia Romagna, Italy• Population 4.4 million• $$$, top ten European regions• 32% self-employed• 76% work in small • Business with 4-5 workers• Italy’s 4th largest exporter• 400,000 enterprises• 15,000 cooperatives• Strong tradition of reciprocity, regional economy mutual support system, financed by a 0.4% levy on sales • High density of banks• Regional credit system with close ties to local enterprises• Lowest unemployment• Highest rate of citizen satisfaction in Italy

Emilia Romagna, Italy

There are half a million businesses and coops in the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to local inter-business organizations.

In return, they receive support with financing, training, research, development strategies and export efforts.

Vancouver Cooperatives have their own Mutual Support Network

Local Businessesare making

Wage Differentials Reduction Pledges

from 30:1 to 10:1

Many Vancouver businesses are becoming Benefit Corporations

Most Vancouver businesses have Women Directors on the Board

“Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance,

according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”

All Vancouver businesses are incentivized to acquire

Green Business Certification

Youth Enterprise Initiatives are flourishing

The Local Food Economyis flourishing

www.solefoodfarms.com

There is a big New City Market and Food Hub

There are community gardens and micro-markets everywhere

All of Vancouver’s banks and credit unions have embraced

Values-Based Banking

A publicly-owned State Bank of BC

has been established

Creates new creditHolds public taxes and feesTargets strategic investmentsClearing bank for other banksProfits recycled, public benefit

Modeled on The Bank of North Dakota

WIR Inter-Business Banking gives businesses credit when they need it

Micro-Lending is flourishing

Many people have joined an interest-free JAK Bank

Community Currencies are flourishing

Time-banking is flourishing

VANCOUVER

All banks and credit unions provide Debt Circles

2: Poverty and Inequality

Basic Income for allhas been established

A Basic Income is an income unconditionally guaranteed to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.

www.livableincome.org

It is being financed through:

•Reallocation of pensions and unemployment benefit, social security and welfare payments•Direct taxation•Indirect taxation on consumption (GST)•The Financial Transactions Tax

Student Debt problems have been solved

The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

The Sharing Economy is thriving

A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…

Debt CirclesFair TaxationBasic Income Co-operativesProfit-sharing

Affordable HousingStudent Debt SolutionThe Sharing Economy

Increased Minimum WageAbility to grow your own food

3: Affordable Housing

Two-storey house: $1,151,250

Vancouver Average House Prices, July 2013

Detached bungalow: $1,052,500

Condo: $490,475

Existing City Initiatives

Vancouver Rent BankInclusionary ZoningDensity BonusingSecondary SuitesInfill DevelopmentDemolition Control

Further Initiatives…

$$ GATHERING THE MONEY $$•There’s a progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million

•15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies

•Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons

•Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them

$$ SPENDING THE MONEY $$

•Vancouver Affordable Housing Trust Fund

•There’s a Community Housing Circle in each neighbourhood which plans and builds affordable projects.

There’s a Community Land Trustwhich buys land for affordable housing

Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi

In rental apartmentsthere are Tenants’ Stewardship Councils

which also have the first right of purchase

The new funds are being used to buy out the Downtown Eastside Rooming Hotels,

and to restore or demolish and rebuild

Communal Renting has been legalized for more than five people

Communal ownership has become common

8-Bedroom house in North Van: $1.5 million= $250k each for 8 owners

Car-Free Laneway Micro-Housing has become common

www.loftcube.net

There’s a special Rooftop Homes Zone

Rooftop Housingis the new cool

thing.

Micro-homes

502 Alexander StVancouver

280 sq ft

12 units, base cost $85,000 each

There are Micro-Homes Villageson temporarily vacant land

Claire Martin

4: The Downtown Eastside

1. There is Basic Income for all

Already in place in our imagined 2032:

2. The Bank of BC creates low-interest credit and supports local community economies, including microloans

3. There are many new affordable housing initiatives

4: There is funding to restore or rebuild the old rooming hotels

In addition….

5. There is funding to convert the old motels along Kingsway into single-room

housing coops

6. BC has adopted the Nordic model, decriminalizing prostituted women, while criminalizing pimps and johns

7: There has been a change in Canada’s prisons policy, with more restorative justice and less jail time. It costs $114,000 a year to

keep someone in jail.

8: Recreational soft drugs have been legalized. There are safe legal injection sites,

detox and treatment on demand, and recovery coaching to help ex-addicts

remain in their homes.

9: A team of “Judy’s Angels” provide one-to-one support to help people get off the street and into a home.

10: Vancouver’s Food Banks (which fed 15,000 people a day in 2014) have been transformed into Community Food Centres where people learn how to cook together, eat together, grow their own food, and join a Community Food Coop.

Hastings Street from Cordova to Main has been made car-free.

There is a green Trail of Power with a big sculpture at each intersection

that tells the story of Canada’s First Nations

5: Transportation

without Oil

How most traffic engineer see the city

How cities should be designed

Who needs to own a car,when walking is so pleasant,Cycling such fun, public transit so efficient and carsharing so easy?

20% of our trips in 2032 are on foot 40% are by bike 25% are by transit only 15% are by car or light truck

Many more people enjoy walking

Neighbourhoods have organized local Walkability Audits

www.walklive.org

MANY more people are cycling: 40% of our trips in 2032

All bike lanes are safe separated bike lanes

Electric Bicycles are everywhere

The Copenhagen Wheel

Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Many people are using Transit= 25% of our trips

There are luxury commuter buses

There are many creative Bus Shelters, designed by community volunteers

100% Electric Buses

On-Line Recharge Electric Buses

Cars are only being used for 15% of our trips

Vehicle owners are earningup to $300 a month

through peer-to-peer carsharing

Affordable small electric vehicles:Renault Twizy

$9,700 + $60/month battery lease

100 km = 15 kWh10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

Grid Power for EV

EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper

to run!

Hiroko EV

Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland

www.cargohopper.com

There is no more air pollution

And at night, because smart street lights are user-controlledand office lights are turned out, we can see the stars

6: Our Homes

Every house with a south-facing

roof is a Solar House

Solar Economics in Vancouver

4 kW, 5% finance, 3% year hydro inflation

2013 2020 2032Cost per kW $4,000 $3,000 $2,0004 kW system $16,800 $12,600 $8,400Cost + $ @ 5% $29,300 $22,000 $14,700

kWh per year 4,400 4,400 4,400 25 year Income $21,900 $26,300 $61,500Profit -$7,400 +$4,300 +$46,800

Every housewith a south-facing roof has solar hot water

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

Neolithic Era

Ancient Egypt

Roman Empire

Islamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Fossil Fuels……………………………………….

The last 10,000 years

..................................................

What happens here,when we stop burning fossil fuels?

The Age of Fossil Fuels

A billion years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and get cheaper.

90% HEAT ENERGY

REDUCTIONIN NEW HOMES

Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

16" foam insulation. 8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB

EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed U= 0.73

Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust heat transferred to incoming fresh air

Building cost only 4.3% more, repays through energy saving

Solar Heat Pumps

Air-Source Solar Heat Pumps

Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pumps

The Octopus Ice-Stickwww.octopus.tm

Air Moisture Solar Heat Pumps

Since 1991In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland,

Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.

• Saves 50-75% on heating costs• Uses air moisture, quiet air collector• Operates down to -25o C

The cross is an Ice-Stick heat pump

Ground Source Solar Heat Pumps

Ground-Source Heat

Intelligent geothermal heat extraction

geothermic.tracto-technik.com

District Heat

Insulated Pipes

Hot water at 200o C delivered to customers

25 km away only a few degrees of

heat loss.

Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta

Solar Thermal District Heat

800 solar hot water

panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C)

Saves 5 tonnes GHG emissions per home

per year.

The Energy Centre

Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels

Collective solar thermal system on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com

LED Lighting

Smart Thermostats: NEST

Single ‘House-off’ Switch

Li-fi instead of Wi-fi

Electronic Art

Legal Composting Toilets

Rainwater Storage

Many people are growing their own food

Boulevards are being vegetablized

7: Our Neighbourhoods

Bioswale captures rainwaterSEA Street, Seattle

SEA Street, Seattle

PorousPavement

Crown Street Sustainable StreetscapeNatural Stormwater management

Lost Creeks are being restored

Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years

Streets are being re-imagined and redesigned

www.cityrepair.org

Most Streets Hold an Annual Block Party

www.restreets.org

Downtown streets are being calmed and claimed

www.restreets.org

…and cultured

Suburban streets are being calmed and claimed

www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets are being slowed

www.restreets.org

Fast, boring streets are being slowed and humanized

There are many local Farmers Markets

All Schools are Growing Their Own Food

Concrete school yards are being transformed

Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey

www.greenovergrey.com

Boring buildings are being greened…

Musee du quai Branly in Parisdesigned by Patrick Blanc Le Mur Vegetal

Many neighbours are participating in the sharing economy

www.streetbank.com

www.collaborativeconsumption.com

Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing

There’s lots of community art

Many people are celebrating

The Sustainable City

The Happy, Affordable City

More walking, biking, bus, carsharing = Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens = Lower food costs

Innovative affordable housing = Lower housing costs

Green, solar, energy-efficient homes = Lower energy costs

The Sharing Economy = Lower cash costs

Stronger community economies = More financial security

Basic Income, debt solutions = More financial security

More urban greenery = More peace, more beauty

No more fossil fuels = Clean air, clear sky, quiet city

More civic engagement = Healthier political realm

Stronger neighbourhoods = More friends, more real community

More arts, music, celebration = More friends, more happiness,

8: How Do We Get There?

Community engagement x 500

Design the Future Community Meetings

Engage Young People

www.leadingchangenetwork.com

Electronic ballots

Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16

Transferable Voting at municipal elections

Electronic ballotsVoting aged reduced to 16

Transferable Voting at municipal elections$100 voting tax credit (revenue neutral)

This whole presentation is available on

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Special Price

D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We?

Where Are We Going??

Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.

The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us

Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion

Number of atoms in your body:

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion

Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

We are amazing… and we are all conscious

We have free will We can make a difference

This is about us, our planet,our future.

It’s Our World – So LETS CHANGE IT

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

Imagining a Beautiful Green Future: Vancouver 2032

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