System Traps and Opportunities

Sydney Limited WIP SocietyJason Yip

j.c.yip@computer.orghttp://jchyip.blogspot.com

@jchyip

System Traps and Opportunities

How do you fix this?

“Australia’s youth unemployment rate of 27.2 per cent is the highest since the 1990s, up from a low of 16.6 per cent just before the global financial crisis in 2008.”http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-17/youth-unemployment-a-key-challenge-as-boomers-retire/5896202

System structures that produce common patterns of problematic behavior are called “archetypes”

We tend to blame the problems caused by archetypes on particular actors or events instead of underlying system structure

Interventions assuming the problem is due to individual actors or events (e.g., blaming, disciplining, specific policies, etc.) do not fix structural problems -- hence “System Trap”

Policy resistance

The advantage of a balancing feedback loop structure is that not much changes, despite external forces on the system

The disadvantage of a balancing feedback loop structure is that not much changes, despite external forces on the system

War on Drugs

Increased risk of supplying

Increased price of drugs

Increased profitability of drugs

More drugs supplied

Policy resistance happens because actors in the system have their own goals.

If one actor pushes the system in one direction, the others will pull it back.

Solutions to Policy Resistance

1. Overpower it2. Let go (aka de-escalate)3. Harmonise goals

Tragedy of the Commons

“...individuals acting independently and rationally according to one’s self-interest, behave contrary to the whole group’s long-term best interests by depleting some common resource.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The Tragedy of the Commons“As a rational being, each herdsman seeks to maximize his gain. Explicitly or implicitly, more or less consciously, he asks, “What is the utility to me of adding on more animal to my herd?” This utility has one negative and one positive component.

1) The positive component is a function of the increment of one animal. Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the sale of the additional animal, the positive utility is nearly +1.

2) The negative component is a function of the additional overgrazing created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects of overgrazing are shared by all the herdsman, the negative utility for any particular decision-making herdsman is only a fraction of -1.”

http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/articles/art_tragedy_of_the_commons.html

+1 +1

- 0.0...1 - 0.0...1

Examples

● Overfishing● Overpopulation● Climate change

“The tragedy of the commons arises from missing (or too long delayed) feedback from the resource to the growth of the users of that resource.”

Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A Primer (p. 117). Kindle Edition.

Solutions to Tragedy of the Commons

1. Educate and exhort2. Privatise the commons3. Regulate the commons

1. Define clear group boundaries2. Match rules governing use of common goods to

local needs and conditions3. Ensure that those affected by the rules can

participate in modifying the rules4. Make sure the rule-making rights of community

members are respected by outside authorities5. Develop a system, carried out by community

members, for monitoring members’ behaviour6. Use graduated sanctions for rule violators7. Provide accessible, low-cost means for dispute

resolution8. Build responsibility for governing the common

resource in nested tiers from the lowest level up to the entire interconnected system

http://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons

Drift to low performance

We tend to believe bad news more than good news

We believe our current performance is worse than it actually is

We adjust our performance goal based on our perceived current state

We adjust our corrective action based on our performance goal

Our actual performance gets worse

Solutions to Drift to Low Performance

1. Keep standards absolute, regardless of performance

2. Set goals based on the best performances of the past, instead of the worst (aka positive deviance)

Escalation

Examples

● Arms race● Price war

http://www.leader-values.com/article.php?aid=247

Solutions to Escalation

1. Unilateral disarmament2. Negotiate disarmament3. Don’t get caught up in this in the first

place

Success to the Successful

“If the winners of a competition are systematically rewarded with the means to win again, a reinforcing feedback loop is created by which, if it is allowed to proceed uninhibited, the winners eventually take all, while the losers are eliminated.

Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A Primer (p. 130). Kindle Edition.”

Competitive Exclusion Principle

“...two species competing for the same resource cannot coexist at constant population values, if other ecological factors remain constant.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitive_exclusion_principle

“The rich get richer...”

Solutions to Success to the Successful

1. Diversification to other sectors2. Policies to level the playing field3. Policies to ensure rewards do not bias the

next round of competition

Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor

An intervention is a system trap if it undermines the original capacity of the system to maintain itself and therefore increases dependence on the intervenor.

“Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime”

This is what is meant by Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor

Solutions to Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor

1. Withdrawal (painful)2. Intervene in such a way as to strengthen

the ability of the system to shoulder its own burdensa. Why are the natural correction mechanisms

failing?b. How can obstacles to their success be removed?c. How can mechanisms for their success be made

more effective?

Rule Beating (aka cheating)

“Wherever there are rules, there is likely to be rule beating.”

Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A Primer (p. 136). Kindle Edition.

Solutions to Rule Beating

1. Stamp out self-organisation… and hope that it doesn’t create even more cheating

2. Improve rules to support self-organisation

Seeking the Wrong Goal

“If the goal is defined badly, if it doesn't measure what it's supposed to measure, if it doesn't reflect the real welfare of the system, then the system can't possibly produce a desirable result.”

Donella H. Meadows. Thinking in Systems: A Primer (p. 138). Kindle Edition.

Examples

● National security: amount of money spent on the military

● Good education: amount of money spent on students, performance on standardised tests

● Family planning: number of IUDs implanted

● National success: GDP

Solutions to Seeking the Wrong Goal

● Change your indicators and goals● Don’t confuse effort with result

Thoughts? Questions?

Pictures

● https://flic.kr/p/7xz1XT● https://flic.kr/p/6QWKE2● https://flic.kr/p/ci4muE