Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster

HORMEGEDDONHOW TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING LEADS TO DISASTER

BILL BONNER

HISTORY IS A LONG TALE OF THINGS THAT WENT FUBARD E B A C L E S , D I S A S T E R S , A N D C A T A S T R O P H E S

You can learn about these disasters by reading history. But be careful. Histories are narratives.

THEY ARE STORIES.

— E N G L I S H P H I L O S O P H E R K A R L P O P P E R

WE NEVER KNOW WHATWE ARE TALKING ABOUT.

“ ”

Instead, we stretch and strain to understand things

WE CAN NEVER REALLY HOPE TO UNDERSTAND AT ALL.

The alternative—silence—isn’t much fun though.

THE BEST WE CAN DO IS TRY TO CATCH TINY GLIMPSES OF THINGS

THAT ARE TRUE ENOUGH

O N E O F T H E S E T H I N G S I S T H E P H E N O M E N O N C A L L E D

HORMEGEDDON

Hormegeddon is what happens when a small dose of something produces a favorable result,

THE RESULTS ARE A DISASTER.

B U T I F Y O U I N C R E A S E T H E D O S A G E ,

Hormegeddon does just that.

NASSIM TALEB, AUTHOR OF THE BLACK SWAN AND ANTIFRAGILE, SUGGESTED APPLYING THE TERM BEYOND ITS ORIGINAL APPLICATION, PHARMACOLOGY.

First described in 1888, it was later given a name by scientists in 1943: “hormesis.”

DISASTERS COME IN MANY FORMS,FROM EPIDEMICS TO EARTHQUAKES AND TORNADOES.

B U T H O R M E G E D D O N A P P L I E S T O A N O T H E R K I N D O F D I S A S T E R —

THOSE THAT ARE MAN-MADE

They all have the same characteristics:

BECAUSE THOSE EXACT PEOPLE ARE THE ONES WHO CAUSE THESE DISASTERS IN THE FIRST PLACE.

The problem is, these disasters cannot be stopped by smart people with good intentions,

T H E Y A R E T H E P R O D U C T O F

“RATIONAL THINKING.”T H I N K B A I L O U T S F O R B A N K E R S A N D S U B S I D I E S F O R C O R N .

1

THEY ARE THE RESULTS OF LARGE SCALE PLANNING, USUALLY BACKED

BY THE GOVERNMENT.

2

T H E F E E D B A C K L O O P I S T W I S T E D .

3

YOU FEEL THE PAIN OF ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES,L I K E W H E N Y O U P U T Y O U R H A N D T O T H E S T O V E .

4

T Y P I C A L L Y W H E N Y O U M A K E A M I S T A K E

5

and free to continue their bad behavior.

LEAVING THOSE WHO MADE THE ORIGINAL BAD CHOICESFREE OF CONSEQUENCES

Man-made disasters twist that loop and put the pain onto someone else,

6

T H E Y C R E A T E T H E I R O W NS U P P O R T S Y S T E M S .

RATHER THAN SELF-LIMITING,MAN-MADE DISASTERS ARE SELF-PERPETUATING.

7

THEY CREATE “ZOMBIES”, PEOPLE WHO GAIN FROM WEALTH-DESTROYING ACTIVITIES.

from the outbreak of WWII to the 21st century War on Terror,

FROM THE GREAT RECESSION TO THE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS.

We can see the effect of Hormegeddon in some of the largest man-made disasters in history —

WE CAN ALSO SEE THE EFFECTS OF HORMEGEDDON IN OUR PERSONAL LIVES.I T O C C U R S W H E N T H E M A R G I N A L R E T U R N S I N A N

I N V E S T M E N T Y O U M A K E S I N K S B E L O W Z E R O .

L i k e t h e p o p u l a r C r o s s f i t w o r k o u t r o u t i n e , w h i c h c a np r o v e f a t a l i f p r a c t i c e d b e y o n d i t s p r a c t i c a l l i m i t s .

“IT CAN KILL YOU. I’VE ALWAYS BEEN COMPLETELY HONEST ABOUT THAT.”

THE FOUNDER OF CROSSFIT, GREG GLASSMAN, WAS RECENTLY QUOTED SAYING,

WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AMERICANS CLASSIFIED AS OBESE.

BUT AMERICA IS APPROACHING HORMEGEDDON IN THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH FOOD,

Or eating. A little bit of food can be the difference between survival and death, which is a very high return on investment.

UNDERSTANDING HORMEGEDDON GIVES US THE CONTEXT AND UNDERSTANDING TO HELP US AVOID THESE IMPENDING DISASTERS IN OUR OWN LIVES, L IKE

INVESTING FOR RETIREMENT, RUNNING A BUSINESS,OR IMPROVING OUR RELATIONSHIPS.

—NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB,AUTHOR OF THE BLACK SWAN AND ANTIFRAGILE

“THIS IS A MUST, MUST, MUST READ EXPOSITION ON THE SIDE

EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT. IT EXPOSES THE PROBLEM OF NAIVE

INTERVENTIONISM, THE IATROGENICS OF BUREAUCRACIES, AND THE

GROWING ABSENCE OF SKIN- IN-THE-GAME. . . IT IS DEEP

ILLUSTRATIVE, WITTY, PLEASANT TO READ.”

From New York Times Bestseller Bill Bonner, learn how to navigate the biggest man-made

disasters of our time and succeed in business, investing, and life in spite of them with

Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster.

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