A Visual History of the Next Big Thing...and how to see The Next One coming

Peter SweeneyFounder & President, Primal

A Visual History of the Next Big Thing

...and how to see The Next One coming

Tony Sarris

Although players like WordPerfect and MS Word came along an made word processing an app for PCs, the real pioneer in word processing as its own thing apart from a type writer was Wang. Unfortunately for them they kept the old model of a separate device -- a digital word processor that killed the type writer, at least for business use. But when the PC came along with its notion of a whole host of office and home productivity apps, then word processing became an app on top of a more general purpose delivery vehicle (a PC).

Peter Sweeney

See alternate slide 8 that uses an old word processor.

Tony Sarris

I'd include both actually, but put 8 before 7, and then make the point that even the new innovations can change significantly one they are set free on their own. This one found a whole new form/factor within the new PC vehicle that came along shortly thereafter.

Source: John Kratz via Flickr

https://www.flickr.com/photos/kratz/1289786522/in/photolist-2XYuAE-4zKK8m-7gYbXk-bz1C4E-5rcHab-bRxPJD-9dXjG7-nP2YHB-8dk6aM-344Kx8-oNpPzG-6x88Bu-4UwSna-4PHmFa-kANfVY-8UT7U-4LkGfC-7rZZjr-EoNRG-8YWBCH-AS1q-9hzieV-cdDTz-vBCq8-4k9RW5-e3265N-7iUwuM-8dk6jH-4H63FH-8PMkmJ-8JoSb4-aiVeBx-bdwF8g-oWqMdA-8hk5Ch-L2gdj-AkcbB-8X67Vx-oAR8o9-612guP-bz1C7h-2XVg9-9tHb33-oykzC9-8vZa7h-6ogZSx-7eLQm8-f5EddA-4R6bnk-e7osj

Vision is being able to recognize a pattern and apply it to something new, before others see it coming.

What is Vision?

New Media as Features in Old MediaAn incumbent player, when presented with a new innovation, attempts to incorporate that innovation as a feature within their existing user experience.An emergent player introduces that innovation as an entirely new medium, giving the innovation room to achieve its full potential, as The Next Big Thing.

Digital Documents

Source: Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typewriter

Amstrad PCW8512 word processor, 1988 (Source: Wikipedia)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amstrad_PCW

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amstrad

The World Wide Web

Source: Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gopher_%28protocol%29

The first WWW page, 1991 (Source: W3C, The World Wide Web Consortium)

http://www.w3.org/History/19921103-hypertext/hypertext/WWW/TheProject.html

Online Services

Main Menu USA (AOL 2.5 for Windows), 2003 (Source: Mike Richardson)

http://www.mikerichardson.name/oldaol/

Yahoo, original home page, 1994 (Source: CNET)

http://news.cnet.com/2300-1032_3-6072801-1.html

Search

Yahoo, original home page, 1994 (Source: CNET)

http://news.cnet.com/2300-1032_3-6072801-1.html

Google, 1999 (Source:Google Blogoscoped)

http://blogoscoped.com/archive/2006-04-21-n63.html

Social Networks

BlueRodeo.com, June 7, 2000 (Source: Internet Archive)

http://web.archive.org/web/20000611094743/http://www.bluerodeo.com/

Myspace, June/04 (Wayback); launched in Aug. 2003

Microblogging and Activity Streams

Facebook, 2006 (Source:Mashable via Jon Loomer)

http://www.jonloomer.com/2012/05/06/history-of-facebook-changes/

Twitter, 2009 (Source:iCrossing)

http://connect.icrossing.co.uk/twitters-adwords-coming_1777

The Next Big Thing?

Interest Networks

Twitter, 2014

Primal, 2014

Cognitive Services

Google, 2013

Wolfram Alpha, 2013

Intelligent Virtual Assistants

Primal, intelligent content assistant

IFTTT Recipes (Source:Marcello Pedra)

http://www.marcelopedra.com.ar/blog/2013/11/08/interesantes-recetas-ifttt-para-manejar-fotografias/

How To Recognize The Next Big Thing?New media invariably dominates old media, regardless of how hard the incumbents try to keep new media down.

The essence of The Next Big thing won’t be technological. Cloud, data, augmented, geo, semantic, mobile, distributed, implicit, programmable networks are statements of technological enablers, not human experiences.

Look at the activities and experiences of features that seem overburdened or excessively inconvenient.

Further ReadingMedium: A Visual History of the Next Big Thinghttps://medium.com/@petersweeney/a-visual-history-of-the-next-big-thing-a40c5f30cde8

The next step for intelligent virtual assistants: It’s time to consolidatehttps://gigaom.com/2014/09/01/the-next-step-for-intelligent-virtual-assistants-its-time-to-consolidate/

2013: The Year 'the Stream' Crestedhttp://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/12/2013-the-year-the-stream-crested/282202/

Why Cognition-as-a-Service is the next operating system battlefieldhttp://gigaom.com/2013/12/07/why-cognition-as-a-service-is-the-next-operating-system-battlefield/

Sentient code: An inside look at Stephen Wolfram's utterly new, insanely ambitious computational paradigmhttp://venturebeat.com/2013/11/29/sentient-code-an-inside-look-at-stephen-wolframs-utterly-new-insanely-ambitious-computational-paradigm/

Antisocial Networking: How Small (and Valuable) Can Social Networks Get?http://blog.primal.com/antisocial-networking-how-small-and-valuable-can-social-networks-get/

https://medium.com/@petersweeney/a-visual-history-of-the-next-big-thing-a40c5f30cde8

https://gigaom.com/2014/09/01/the-next-step-for-intelligent-virtual-assistants-its-time-to-consolidate/

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/12/2013-the-year-the-stream-crested/282202/

http://gigaom.com/2013/12/07/why-cognition-as-a-service-is-the-next-operating-system-battlefield/

http://venturebeat.com/2013/11/29/sentient-code-an-inside-look-at-stephen-wolframs-utterly-new-insanely-ambitious-computational-paradigm/

http://blog.primal.com/antisocial-networking-how-small-and-valuable-can-social-networks-get/