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The Northern Utah Economy, for more information, please visit jobs.utah.gov
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T H E N O RT H E R N U TA H E C O N O M Y
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK
2013 ECONOMIC FORECAST
Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013
EMPLOYMENT TRENDSHOW HAS EMPLOYMENT CHANGED?
UTAH YEAR-OVER CHANGE IN TOTAL NONFARM JOBS BY COUNTY
(DEC. 2011 – DEC. 2012)
EmeryDaggettCarbon
RichSan Juan
UintahTooele
PiuteIron
SevierBox Elder
MorganGarfield
WeberCacheDavis
SanpeteMillard
SummitKane
State Avg.Wayne
Salt LakeGrand
JuabUtah
WashingtonBeaver
WasatchDuchesne
-7.3%-6.6%
-4.6%-4.5%
-2.0%-1.9%
-1.5%-0.4%-0.2%
0.4%0.8%0.9%
1.5%2.0%2.1%2.3%
2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%
3.7%3.7%
4.1%5.1%
5.5%5.6%5.6%
6.6%6.8%
8.1%
WASATCH FRONT NORTHRECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY COUNTY
(2002 – 2012)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
2%1%
4%
3%
5%
3%
-0.2%
-3%
1%
5%
3%
-0.3%
7%
8%
-1%
1%
6%
-5%
-3%
-1%-1%
-2%
-0.1%
1%1% 1%
3%3%
-0.2%
-5%
-1%
0.5%
2%
Davis Morgan Weber Total Employment
Perc
ent
Change in E
mplo
ym
ent
from
Pre
-vio
us Y
ear
Tota
l N
onfa
rm E
mplo
ym
ent
201,787
192,196
201,722
WASATCH FRONT NORTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY COUNTY
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
Aug
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2010
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2012
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Davis County
Davis Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Aug
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2010
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2012
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Morgan County
Morgan Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Aug 2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug 2010
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug 2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug 2012
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Weber County
Weber Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Source: Department of Workforce Services
7.0%
4.9%
8.9%
5.7%
6.8%
4.9%
WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WEEKLY AVERAGE
(1ST QUARTER OF EACH YEAR)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
245 258
323
690
546
487
392368
WASATCH FRONT NORTH INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS BY COUNTY
(FOUR-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Davis County
Davis 2013
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Weber County
Weber 2013
6-yr Range
6-yr Range
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0
5
10
15
20
Morgan County
Morgan 2... 6-yr Range
132.5
166.0
3.5
IMPORTANT INDUSTRIESWHAT DRIVES THE ECONOMY?
14.2%
12.3%
11.7%
11.3%10.0%
7.4%
6.0%
5.5%
5.1%
16.9%Government (Excluding Education & Health Care)
Retail Trade (Private)
Health Care & Social Assistance (Public & Private)
Manufacturing (Private)
Educational Services (Public & Private)
Accommodation & Food Services (Private)
Construction (Private)
Administrative & Waste Services (Private)
Professional & Technical Services (Private)
Other Industries (Private)
WASATCH FRONT NORTH EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY 2012
(AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
WASATCH FRONT NORTH WAGES(BY INDUSTRY)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Accommodation & food services
Arts, entertainment, & recreation
Administrative & waste services
Retail trade
Other services
Agriculture & Forestry
Educational services
Real estate & rental & leasing
Health care & social assistance
Transportation & warehousing
Information
Construction
Finance & insurance
Mining
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Government (less Ed. & Health)
Professional & technical services
Management of companies
Utilities
$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000
$12,783
$13,991
$22,844
$24,632
$26,618
$27,706
$29,161
$31,342
$37,472
$39,458
$40,328
$42,376
$46,293
$47,667
$48,883
$50,702
$53,241
$57,729
$61,898
$82,375
Average Annual Wage in the WFN:
$37,675
WASATCH FRONT NORTH YEAR-OVER CHANGE IN NONFARM JOBS
(BY INDUSTRY)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Wholesale Trade
Total Government (excluding Education and Health Care)
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Total Education
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Transportation and Warehousing
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Total Health Care and Social Assistance
Information
Retail Trade
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Manufacturing
Construction
Administrative and Support and Waste Management
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
-2.6%
-2.3%
-2.3%
0.9%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
2.3%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
3.0%
3.5%
3.9%
4.1%
5.8%
6.1%
7.7%
8.9%
1990
1998
2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Government (Excluding Education & Health
Care)
Retail Trade
Health Care &Social Assistance
Manufacturing
Educational Services
Re-ces-sions
Perc
ent
of
Nonfa
rm E
mplo
ym
ent
WASATCH FRONT NORTH INDUSTRY TRENDS
(TOP FIVE INDUSTRIES)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% $-
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
$75,000
Percent of Total Employment
Annual W
ages
Government (excluding Education & Health Care)
WASATCH FRONT NORTH WAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS
(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)
Location Quotient of 1 (based on U.S. statistics)
LQ
Manufacturing
Professional & Technical Services
Transportation &
Warehousing
Construction
Administrative & Waste Service
Accommodation & Food Services
Educational Service
Health Care & Social Services
Retail Trade
Average Annual Wage in the WFN:
$37,675
Source: Department of Workforce Services
WEBER COUNTY WAGES AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS
(TOP 10 INDUSTRIES)
Source: Department of Workforce Services
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% $-
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
$75,000
Percent of Total Nonfarm Employment
Annual W
ages
Health Care & Social Assis-tance
ManufacturingFinance & Insur-ance
Construction
Wholesale TradeGovernment (excluding
Education & Health Care)
Retail Trade
Educational Ser-vices
Accommoda-tion & Food Services
Administrative & Waste Ser-
vices
Location Quotient of 1 (based on U.S. statistics)
LQ
Average Annual Wage in Weber:
$35,912
WASATCH FRONT NORTH INDUSTRY TRENDS
(LARGEST INDUSTRY BY COUNTY)
1990
1998
2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Davis, Government (excluding Education &
Health Care)
Morgan, Construction
Weber, Manufacturing
Re-ces-sions
Perc
ent
of
Nonfa
rm E
mplo
ym
ent
Source: Department of Workforce Services
EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOKHOW WILL THE ECONOMY GROW?
WASATCH FRONT NORTH TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Total Nonfarm Employment Projected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 233,865
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
2.0% per year
WASATCH FRONT NORTH GOVERNMENT
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Total Government (excluding education & health care & postal service) - ActualProjected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 30,252
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
0.5% per year
WASATCH FRONT NORTH RETAIL TRADE
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Retail Trade (Actual) Projected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 28,395
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
1.7% per year
WASATCH FRONT NORTH HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL SERVICES
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Health Care and Social Services (Actual) Projected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 30,024
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
3.3% per year
WASATCH FRONT NORTH MANUFACTURING
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Manufacturing (Actual) Projected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 24,565
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
1.9% per year
WASATCH FRONT NORTH CONSTRUCTION
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Construction (Actual) Projected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 16,129
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
3.5% per year
WASATCH FRONT NORTH PROFESSIONAL & TECHNICAL SERVICES
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Professional & Technical Services (Actual) Projected
Em
plo
ym
ent
Tota
l
Source: Department of Workforce Services
Projected Total: 12,494
Projected Annual Growth Rate from 2010-2020:
3.0% per year
OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUESWHAT ELSE IS IMPACTING ECONOMIC GROWTH?
SEQUESTRATION
• The sequester could affect as many as 11,000 people in Utah, resulting in $86 million in lost wages.
• The automatic spending cuts of the Sequester will affect employment differently in different industries and occupations. Regions with high levels of federal government employment, like Weber County and Davis County, will be impacted more than other counties in the state.
• The Department of Defense estimates that the furloughs at Hill Air Force Base will equate to a 20 percent pay cut. The personal income of individuals that have to take mandatory unpaid furloughs will decrease, which will negatively impact spending in these areas.
• The potential exists for 16,430 Utah workers to lose access to job training.
• The largest negative consequence of the Sequester is that it breeds uncertainty in the market, leading businesses and individuals to be less confident in the future of the economy. Uncertainty depresses business investment and consumer spending, which negatively impacts economic growth.
• The consensus amount economists and policymakers is that the majority of the spending cuts in the Sequester will be averted making Sequestration a short-term issue.http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/sequester/interactive-map
UTAH
EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/04/european-economy-guide
C O N TAC T: T Y S O N S M I T H @ U TA H. G OV
QUESTIONS?
THANK YOU!
Tyson Smith - Regional Economist May 8, 2013
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