The Changing Geography of Cambridgeshire

Mike SoperResearch & Performance Team Manager

www.cambridgeshireinsight.org@CambsCCstatGuy

The Changing Geography of Cambridgeshire

Mike Soper will present what is essentially a Human Geographer’s perspective on the changing nature of Cambridgeshire. He will consider spatial variations in the distribution, composition and growth of the County’s population alongside the economic geography. From this perspective he will draw conclusions on what the County will look like in 25 years’ time. Mike (@CambsCCstatGuy) is an old graduate of Reading University’s school of geography and currently leads Cambridgeshire County Council’s Research Team, www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk .The team have a number of specialisms including economic forecasting & research, GIS & mapping, housing needs assessment and population forecasting.

Cambridgeshire County Council

• £½ billion (exec schools)

• Employ around 5,500 people

• Diverse range of services- Roads, Transport, Waste, Libraries;- Early Years, Education;- Social Care for children & adults;- Older peoples services;

What has the County Council ever

done for us?

Political OrganisationNumber of Councillors

Conservative - 32

Liberal Democrat - 14

UKIP - 12

Labour - 7

Independent - 4

Cambridgeshire County Council Public funding crisis continuesFunding not keeping pace with inflation and demand;

Increase demands for service across a range of County Council activities

Where to start? : History

• What were the historic drivers for population change in Cambridgeshire?

- Local growth / Local Economy - Relationship to London - Migration

Historic - National Context• The UK population: past, present and

future, Julie Jefferies, ONS, 2005

Local Growth - Historic

• Stretham Old Engine, 1831

http://www.pnas.org/content/100/17/9997.full

Local Growth - Historic

Local Growth- Historic - Cambridge example, from Medieval boundary to current city boundary - Railway, industrial growth (Jam, Milling, Brewing, Cambridge Instrument Company, Pye Radio, printing,)

(H.C. Darby, A Scientific Survey of the Cambridge District, 1938)

Local Growth - Historic

Local Growth - Historic

Relationship with London - Historic

• Huntingdon, St Neots

• (Bar Hill)

• Thetford, Haverhill, Kings Lynn, Braintree…

• New Towns: - Milton Keynes, Stevenage, Harlow…

• London ‘Overspill’ policy existed from 1930 until the late 1970s

• Greater London plan proposed that over 1 million people were relocated out of central London

Local Growth- Historic

End of Part One

Challenges

• Faltering (National) Economy

• Meeting housing demand

• Change in age structure

The Economy is now growing

National Institute for Social and Economic Research http://niesr.ac.uk/

Housing Demand

Objectively assessed need for the Cambridge housing sub-region is for 93,000 additional homes between 2011 - 2031

Cambridgeshire Population Structure 2010

-30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

14-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+Females

Males

Cambridgeshire County Council Population Forecasting Model

http://www.cambridgeshireinsight.org.uk/poppyramids

Cambridgeshire Population Structure 2031

-30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

14-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+Females

Males

Cambridgeshire County Council Population Forecasting Model

Population Change 2012 - 2031• Our total population will increase by 142,00 people, that is 23%• The national increase over the same time period is just 13%• We will have 64% more people aged 65+ and 32,100 people aged 85+, 131% more!

Is Migration a challenge?

End of Part Two

Cambridge in Detail

Northstowe

North West Cambridge

Cambridge Fringe Developments

Northstowe (New Town)

Alconbury

Peterborough

Conclusions

• Themes - Economic growth hand in hand with population growth - Supported by improvements in public health

• Challenges- How the different generations manage that growth (and decline) is written into the landscape.