WGI: Climate Change Projection

Climate change projections

Dr. Roxana BojariuLead Author in WG I of AR5 National Meteorological Administration (Bucharest, Romania)

Climate models Climate scenarios CMIP 5 projections in WG I Report of IPCC Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of

Regional Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl/atlas) CORDEX Programme Benefits and limitations of climate model results

Climate Models

From: NCPP Quantitative Evaluation of DownscalingAugust 12-16, 2013, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Coloradohttps://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/

CMIP 5

e.g. CORDEX

e.g. hydrological & agrometeorological models

Climate scenarios

From: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/275097914_Changing_risks_in_changing_climate

CMIP 5 projections in WG I Report of IPCC

From SPM

CMIP 5 projections in WG I Report of IPCC

Extreme statistics continue to change.

From IPCC (2013)

Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of Regional Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl

/atlas)

Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of the likelihood of changes.

Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of Regional Change (http://climexp.knmi.nl

/atlas)

Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of the likelihood of changes.

Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of the likelihood of changes.

Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of Regional Change (http://

climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)

Please be aware that these results are climate model outputs, not an assessment of the likelihood of changes.

Examples of CMIP 5 results for Turkey from the Atlas of Regional Change (http://

climexp.knmi.nl/atlas)

CORDEX Programme

Changes in frequency of strong wind episodes (> 13.4 m/s; in %) over the Black Sea based on the ensemble mean of 4 regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX in 2071-2100 vs. 1971-2000. Spatial resolution is 12.5 km.

EURO-CORDEX domain

Benefits and limitations of climate model results Numerical experiments are the equivalents of lab experiments in physics.

In the present modeling effort we start to look into more spatial and temporal scales of climate – some of them on which regional process and extremes take place.

Climate model results allow to make sound and informed decision by coupling climate information with impact and socio economic knowledge.

On the other hand

there are limitations in using model results due to problems in observation system which feed in models, model representations of reality etc.

But

we can get rid of a number of these limitations by advancing our knowledge.

However

there will be always a level of uncertainty due to intrinsic chaotic nature of some processes taking place in the climate system;

we have to cope with a level of uncertainty in the mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Thank you!