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Climate Change and Projection for Asia. Data and Uncertainty\. Modeling the climate processes AND Model Outputs for Climate Change Analysis. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Modeling the climate processesAND
Model Outputs for Climate Change AnalysisModel Outputs for Climate Change Analysis
Climate model is reduced complexity numerical system, which simulates one possible time evolution in which the major features have a response to primary forcing similar to the real world.
SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia RegiSNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Regionon
SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia RegionSNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Region
Dispersion and Inconsistency Dispersion and Inconsistency in downscaling in downscaling
Seasonal Cycles by RMIP models
Dispersion and Inconsistency Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projections in climate projections
Dispersion and Inconsistency Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projection in climate projection
ΔP
(mm
/day
)
ΔP
(mm
/day
)
South ChinaCenter China
RMIP downscaled Precipitation changes
Asia Land
OceanAnnual T Trends for 2040-2070 (c/10yr)
Interannual variability for future climate by multi-RCMs
Ensembles in RMIP
• Ensemble averages work well for mean climate;
• Explorer the best methods for evaluating changes and extremes;
• Use ensemble spread to inform uncertainty;
Model outputs and Observation• For surface climate:
– Daily average MSLP, maximal/minimal temperature, surface wind speed (optional)
– 3-hourly: 2m temperature, RH, convective precipitation, large scale precipitation, evaporation, 10m wind (U,V) (optional, depending on individual model)
• For upper level atmosphere– Daily average: U, V, T, H at 200, 500, 850 hPa
• Observation– CRU surface temperature, OISST SST
– APHRODITE and GPCP Precipitation