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Climate change: an evolving planetary health emergency?
Prof Colin Butler, ARC Future Fellow
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“We play Russian roulette with climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun".
Broecker WS. Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? Nature 1987;328:123-126.
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“The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable”
Health in the Greenhouse
Editorial (Lancet, 1989)
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“Demand will create a parachute”
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What does this mean for society?
and health??
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Unmet electricity need
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Lack of “modern” energy
Most electricity is not clean
“Coal for all”?
Clean(er) energy for many?
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Released Sept 2014
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Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires
Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure
secondary
primary
tertiary
Health effects of adverse global environmental change
famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure
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Men
tal h
ealth
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“Tertiary”
“Primary”
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“Secondary”
Old location
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Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave
(Azhar et al, 2014) (adapted)
May 1-31
Max temp 2010
Max temp 2009-and 2011
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Daily deaths 2009 & 2011, 2010
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Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths
30Mean daily temp, 2003
Mean daily temp 1999-2002
~12 oC above season norm
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15 oC
20
35 oC
~900 extra deaths during heatwave
350
300
250
200
150
100
0
Daily deaths
50
van den Torren, 2004
+8 oC
+12 oC
Daily deaths: 2003 1999-2002
~100 extra deaths
June …..……………… July …………………. ………… August ……….
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ElderlyPeople with chronic disease (renal, cardiac, dementia?)PoorMentally illMultiple sclerosis
Emergency workersMilitary personnel?Many workers in already hot places, eg factories, cane cutters, labourers in Middle East
Extreme heat and health: who is vulnerable?
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Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)
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Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The PhilippinesStrongest recorded storm to make landfallDirect death toll: >5,000Displaced: >4 millionTotal Burden of Disease?Fraction attributable to climate change?
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A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14Country: PHILIPPINES
Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city)
“The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries”
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secondary
primary
tertiary
“Tertiary” health effects
famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure
1919
Men
tal h
ealth
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(nominal prices)
20Butler, 2013
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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought
US droughts
Butler
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Waterscarcity
Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK Ministry of Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
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Burden of Disease (proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)
SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-
scale migration, economic collapse
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Eco-medicine?
The good news is you’re too big
to let fail
Pope
Canberra Times
29.10.08
The good news is you’re too big to let
fail The bad news is it’s hard to get a
government bailout until your
stocks completely
crash
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Towards a solution
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Toxicity
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Placebo
Vaccine spectrum
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Panic, despair, or indifference
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“Polyanna”
“Social vaccine” spectrum
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“Coal is good for humanity”
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“Peak health”
President Royal Society 2005-2010
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“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be
discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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Qld govt “future vision 2044”
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Crisis = opportunity31
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Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816)32
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Rod Simpson
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Solar (1975-20072007-10)
NUCLEAR
US$/kwH(2005
dollars)
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Lock-in of Technological and Social Cultures &Institutions
The QWERTY Phenomenon
SUBSIDIES: fossil fuel /renewables: 6 to 1 (2011 )
10 times more than costs of Hurricane Sandy
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He Had a dream
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