Energy Risks to Activity Systems as a function of urban form

Energy risks to activity systems as a function of

urban form

Dr. André Dantas, Civil Engineering DepartmentDr. Susan Krumdieck, Mechanical Engineering DepartmentMr Shannon Page, Mechanical Engineering Department

Advanced Energy and Material Systems LabAdvanced Energy and Material Systems Lab

Presentation outline

• Discussion

•RECATS demonstration

•Case study findings

•RECATS model

•Context

•Energy supply analysis

•Risk analysis

Once upon the time, there was an urban area ….

…. And the urban area was changing

and growing…t=1

t=2

t=n

And growing

….

…and the more it was growing, the more people had complex needs

Complex commuting patterns all over the

city.

t=1

t=2

t=n

Central displacements

on foot;

Travel Demand

Long-motorized travel from suburbs to

CBD;

…and the more people had complex travel needs,

...

ENERGY crisis/shortage risks

???

Which urban form

development option minimizes

energy risks?

?

Petroleum availability?

Alternative energy sources?

Transport technology?

Facts about Oil Resources

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

60

50

40

30

20

10

Billions of Barrels per year

Projected Discoveries

Discovery

Production

Energy supply analysis

World Oil Supply Situation

Sept 2005 Saudi’s Oil Minister pledges (again) to increase production

Oil production capacity remains limited, leaving the market vulnerable to shocks…

www.fin.gc.ca

High Price can cause oil shortages in import-dependent economies

Philippines, Eritrea, Zimbabwe,Nigeria, China, South Africa

Panic Buying can cause oil shortagesUK, USA, India, China

Energy supply analysis

Facts about NZ Oil Demand

Values in Gross Peta Joules for the year ending September 2005

Product Imports

Crude oil imports (incl. condensate, naptha and feed stocks) International transport,

Industry & agriculture, and other uses

50.0 Indigenous production

33.0 Export

85.89

Losses, own use, stock change and exports

Domestic Transport

Diesel 75.7

Motor Gasoline 109.1

Av. Fuel & others 21.6

231.30

Diesel 32.6 Gasoline 35.5

NZRC Total refined

Products 311.0

Energy supply analysis

There is a Possibility• Fuel Shortage• High Price

Published January 14, 20032005 Minneapolis Star Tribune

Encarta.msn.com

That there will be a problem

Energy supply analysis

Peak Oil is a problem because…

It’s not accounted for in the original design and operation

It is an issue we don’t have a plan to deal with

Therefore it poses a RISK

Energy supply analysis

Peak Oil Probability

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125

History

Mean

USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896

7.8% Growth1963-1973

2% Growth& Decline

High Prices CanAffect Demand4.1% Decline

1979-1983

2016

40

30

35

25

20

15

10

5

01900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 21002075 2125

Billi

ons

of B

arre

ls p

er y

ear

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pro

babi

lty (%

)

Peak Oil5% Reduction7.5% Reduction10% Reduction15% Reduction20% Reduction

Fuel Shortage

Y

Y

yr

ryyrXCP

2005

20051!1!2005!20051

Energy supply analysis

Probability of Fuel Shortfall Shortage10% Below 2005

2005 0% 2010 0%2015 30%2020 78%2025 96%2030 99.5%

Post Peak Oil Supply Decline neglecting cost or panic induced shortages

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pro

babi

lty (%

)

Peak Oil5% Reduction7.5% Reduction10% Reduction15% Reduction20% Reduction

Fuel Shortage

Energy supply analysis

Petroleum availability?

Alternative energy sources?

Transport technology?

Technology Substitutes or Alternatives? Alternative Vehicles Alternative Fuels

Alternatives don’t change the fact that an oil shortage represents a change in the amount of oil currently being used.

Energy supply analysis

Petroleum availability?

Alternative energy sources?

Transport technology?

?PEAK OIL

AND THE SUBSEQUENT SUPPLY DECLINE

Risk to Transportation Activities?

Impacts on wellbeing?

Urban form and adaptability?

Essentiality?

Essentiality Metric

For Wellbeing

Optional

Necessary

Essential

Risk Analysis

Num

ber o

f Trip

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Essentiality LevelsOptional Necessary Essential

Car

Bus

Walk

Bike

Trip Modes

ShortDistance Bins

Medium Long

Travel Demand

Risk Analysis

Opt Nec Ess Opt Nec Ess Opt Nec Ess0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r D

ay (

1000

s)

CarBusW alkBike

Opt Nec Ess Opt Nec Ess Opt Nec Ess0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r D

ay (

1000

s)

CarBusW alkBike

High Density

Low Density

Risk Analysis

Adaptation to Reduced Fuel Use

Optional

Necessary

Essential

People will act to preserve wellbeing

Eliminate First

Eliminate Last

Eliminate Trips

Risk Analysis

Mode Shifting

Walk Bike Bus (Public Transport) Car (Private Transport)

People will act to preserve participation in activities

Function of Urban Form

Risk Analysis

Distance Shifting

Neighbourhood Area Region

Function of Urban Form

People will act to preserve participation in activities

Risk Analysis

Efficiency Shifting

Share Rides Combine Trips or Modes Use or Purchase more

Efficient Vehicle

Function of Urban Form

People will act to preserve participation in activities

Risk Analysis

Impact Assessment

Loss of Essential Trip

Loss of Necessary Trip

Loss of Optional Trip

Change of Mode

Change of Destination

Risk Analysis

•Identify Risks•Evaluate Impacts•Mitigation Measures•Implementation

Risk Analysis

Exploring Energy Constraint Impacts

Impose a Fuel Shortage

Choose an Urban Form

Model Travel Demand

Calculate Energy Demand

Until Energy Demand = Supply

Model Travel Behaviour Change

Opt Nec Ess Opt Nec Ess Opt Nec Ess0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r D

ay (

1000

s)

CarBusW alkBike

m d

ddmdm DBECTDE ,, *

Risk Analysis

Energy Constrained Activity ModelTravel Activity

RECATS ModelImplemented in MATLAB®

Energy Constraint

Calculate Energy Consumption

E2< E1?Modify

Travel Activity

Constrained Travel ActivityCalculate Risk

Yes

NoE1

E2

Risk Analysis

Risk Assessment

1*

**

,,

,,

m d s

ssdmm d s

ssdm

eeIW

IWTPR

Ψ

Risk = Probability * Impact

Pro

babi

lity

of p

eak

havi

ng o

ccur

red

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Year b)

Travel Activity

Energy Constraint

Calculate Energy Consumption

E2< E1?Modify

Travel Activity

Constrained Travel ActivityCalculate Risk

Yes

NoE1

E2

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0

5

10

15

20

25

30 WORLD WORLD OUTSIDE PERSIAN GULF PERSIAN GULF U.S. AND CANADA FORMER SOVIET UNION U.K. AND NORWAY

ANNU

AL O

IL PR

ODUC

TION

(BILL

IONS

OF

BARR

ELS)

Risk Analysis

RECATS

Risk Analysis

Case Study, Christchurch 2041

What are the risks?

Scenario:Probability Reduction event=20%

Case Study, Christchurch 2041

URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

Business As Usual Car Trips Lost High

Risk=117

Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess 0

100

200

300

400

500

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r Day

(100

0s)

Car Bus Walk Bike

• Optional Trips must be reduced by 84%• Necessary trips must be reduced by 1%• 17% reduction in car travel

Option A – Centralized development Car Trips Lost

Low Risk=105

Case Study, Christchurch 2041

Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess 0

100

200

300

400

500

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r Day

(100

0s)

Car Bus Walk Bike

URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

• Optional Trips must be reduced by 74%• Necessary trips must be reduced by 2%• 15% reduction in car travel

Option B – Hybrid-Corridor based development Car Trips Lost

Moderate Risk=110

Case Study, Christchurch 2041

Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess 0

100

200

300

400

500

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r D

ay (1

000s

)

Car Bus Walk Bike

URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

• Optional Trips must be reduced by 72%• Necessary trips must be reduced by 2%• 16% reduction in car travel

URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

Option C – Urban sprawlCar based development Car Trips Lost

Very High Risk=126

Case Study, Christchurch 2041

Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess 0

100

200

300

400

500

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r Day

(100

0s)

Car Bus Walk Bike

• Optional Trips must be reduced by 84%• Necessary trips must be reduced by 1%• 17% reduction in car travel

Impact of Shortages

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4Scenario

Ris

k le

vel (

Re)

Option BAU Option A Option B Option C

7% 10% 15% 20%

Case Study, Christchurch 2041

Conclusions

•RECATS: a planning tool to assess future scenarios of urban development forms.

•Transport energy: a critical sustainability issue.

•Energy supply analysis: probabilities of future disruption scenarios.

•Greater Christchurch 2041: urban development options subject to different energy risk levels.

•Limitations and further studies: limited data on travel behavior in energy constrained situations.

Acknowledgements

End-user organisations: Christchurch City Council Environment Canterbury Urban Development Strategy Forum Combined Owner Driver Association MWH Global

This research project was funded by

Dr. Susan KrumdieckSusan.Krumdieck@Canterbury.Ac.Nz

Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab

Interdisciplinary research effort to develop the theory, models, information, ideas, technology and planning tools for New Zealand to begin the journey toward a Sustainable Civilization.

Dr. André DantasAndre.Dantas@Canterbury.Ac.Nz