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Eric Greenleaf's presentation to Speaker Silver's downtown school overcrowding taskforce
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1
Why Downtown's Kids Need to Keep Tweed
Prepared by:
PS 234 Overcrowding Committee
Presented to Speaker Sheldon Silver’s Task Force on
School Overcrowding
Nov. 23, 2010
For more information, please contact:
Prof. Eric Greenleaf, egreenle@stern.nyu.edu
2
Downtown already has a shortage of elementary school seats, even with two new schools
Downtown schools’ kindergarten intake capacity is 350 kids per year: 14 classes @ 25 per class
But: Fall 2010 K enrollment exceeded 400 kids, requiring 17 classes:
– PS 89: 3 classes per grade
– PS150: 1 “ “ (80% from Downtown)
– PS234: 5 “ “ - but enrolled 6 Ks
– PS276: 3 “ “ - but enrolled 4 K
– PS397: 2 “ “ - but enrolled 3 K
3
Shortage will get worse in the next three years
Bir
ths in
Man
hatt
an
C.D
. 1
Births in Community District 1 are increasing by over 60 per year
Also: Over 9000 new and converted apartments Downtown in last five years, and the 935-apartment residential tower above Spruce Street School opens in a few months
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Projected size of Downtown’s kindergarten class @ 60% of births
five years earlier (as in 2010)P
roje
cte
d s
ize o
f kin
derg
art
en
cla
ss
5
Projected shortage of seats for Downtown’s kindergarten class
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f kin
derg
art
en
cla
ss
Total Downtown kindergarten
capacity
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Dept. of Education’s proposed solution:
Delay Spruce’s Middle School until 2015 and use these six classrooms to take Downtown’s excess elementary enrollment
Give Tweed space, currently used by Spruce, to Innovate Manhattan Charter Middle School for at least three years, starting Fall 2011
Is there enough classroom space to spare in Lower Manhattan elementary schools to justify diverting Tweed for another purpose?
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Present enrollment at Spruce – Fall 2010But what happens in Fall 2011?
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f S
pru
ce k
ind
erg
art
en
cla
ss
Total Spruce elementary
capacity
Spruce K capacity
Spruce K enrollment Spruce total enrollment
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Spruce’s entire elementary capacity will be almost entirely used up by Fall, 2011 –
six or seven K classes in a twelve-classroom school
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f S
pru
ce k
ind
erg
art
en
cla
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Total Spruce elementary
capacity
Spruce K capacity
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Dept. of Ed.’s solution – divert all 6 middle school classrooms to elementary grades, “creating” 150
more elementary seats
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f S
pru
ce k
ind
erg
art
en
cla
ss
Total Spruce elementary
capacity
Spruce K capacity
Total Spruce capacity
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But: Spruce more than completely full by Fall 2012Must take 194Ks = 8 K classes -
in an 18-classroom school whose oldest kids are in third grade.
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f S
pru
ce k
ind
erg
art
en
cla
ss
Total Spruce elementary
capacity
Spruce K capacity
Total Spruce capacity
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In Fall 2013 there is no room for any of the
229 kindergarteners assigned to Spruce.These kids are already two years old in
2010.
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f S
pru
ce k
ind
erg
art
en
cla
ss
Total Spruce elementary
capacity
Spruce K capacity
Total Spruce capacity
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By Fall 2014 there is a shortage of 509 elementary seats – where will these kids
go to school?
Pro
jecte
d s
ize o
f S
pru
ce k
ind
erg
art
en
cla
ss
Total Spruce elementary
capacity
Spruce K capacity
Total Spruce capacity
13
Some help is on the way –A new school!
DOE has allocated 400 seats in Capital Plan for Downtown Manhattan
DOE has been searching for a site for new school since Spring 2010
Peck Slip Post Office site is a good possibility
– Speaker Silver has contacted Senator Schumer and Post Office requesting that it sell Peck Slip to DOE
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But not soon enough to prevent overcrowding
Earliest that 400 seats can open is Fall 2013 - too late to prevent Spruce overcrowding in Fall 2011
Need 394 more seats by Fall 2013 (or 244 more seats if divert Spruce middle school seats)
– New school could be full if opens in Fall 2013
– Not just beyond intake capacity, but completely FULL
Need 659 more seats by Fall 2014 (or 509 if divert Spruce middle to elementary)
– so new school overcrowded by 259 kids by 2014, which is 65% over capacity (or 25% if Spruce middle diverted)
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What is the “bottom line?”
Spruce does not have anywhere near enough space to solve Downtown’s school overcrowding problems for Fall 2011, much less over the next 2 – 5 years
The new school will not be ready in time to avoid severe overcrowding at Spruce, and at other Downtown schools
Keeping Tweed for Downtown kids is an essential part of the solution
Tweed is not big enough to be the entire solution
Adequate overflow space for Downtown’s elementary kids must be planned for and secured now
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One last note: Where are we headed?How many more elementary seats does
Downtown still need?
Suppose births plateau at 1000 per year in 2010 and stay at that level
– 881 in 2008, and increasing at about 60 per year
This level likely, since CB 1 already has more than 60,000 people, and a large population nearing their child-raising years
Implies a birth rate of 16.6 per thousand
– typical for a population where many residents will soon start families
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How many more elementary seats does Downtown still need?
If 1000 births per year, each year’s incoming public school class would have 600 kids @ 60% births
– This is 200 seats/year more than capacity, even with new school
Still need 1400 more elementary seats beyond new school
– about 56 elementary home rooms
– Plus cluster space and special needs
Even if K class is 55% of births, need 150 more seats per year = 1050 more elementary seats
But . . . .
18
Downtown births may well increase beyond 1000, and these children are
more likely to attend public schools
Downtown Alliance’s 2010 Residential Survey concludes :
“Lower Manhattan . . . . is home to more couples and households with children than singles and roommates. Twenty-three percent of households have children under the age of 18, and results suggest that this proportion will rise, as 40% of childless households (age 45 and under) indicated plans to have children in the next three years.”
“Among households with children, 76% rated local schools as an important reason for living in Lower Manhattan.”
– Up from 56% in 2007
Suggests the “birth yield” might increase far beyond 60%
– Perhaps new school should be 600 seats, not 400
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Thank You
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Data Sources
“Summary of Vital Statistics, The City of New York,” prepared by the Bureau of Vital Statistics, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 1998 – 2008 reports
Downtown Alliance “Quarterly Residential Pipeline” and “Residential Survey Summary - 2010”
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