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1 Why Downtown's Kids Need to Keep Tweed Prepared by: PS 234 Overcrowding Committee Presented to Speaker Sheldon Silver’s Task Force on School Overcrowding Nov. 23, 2010 For more information, please contact: Prof. Eric Greenleaf, [email protected]

Why downtown's kids need to keep tweed

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Eric Greenleaf's presentation to Speaker Silver's downtown school overcrowding taskforce

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Page 1: Why downtown's kids need to keep tweed

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Why Downtown's Kids Need to Keep Tweed

Prepared by:

PS 234 Overcrowding Committee

Presented to Speaker Sheldon Silver’s Task Force on

School Overcrowding

Nov. 23, 2010

For more information, please contact:

Prof. Eric Greenleaf, [email protected]

Page 2: Why downtown's kids need to keep tweed

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Downtown already has a shortage of elementary school seats, even with two new schools

Downtown schools’ kindergarten intake capacity is 350 kids per year: 14 classes @ 25 per class

But: Fall 2010 K enrollment exceeded 400 kids, requiring 17 classes:

– PS 89: 3 classes per grade

– PS150: 1 “ “ (80% from Downtown)

– PS234: 5 “ “ - but enrolled 6 Ks

– PS276: 3 “ “ - but enrolled 4 K

– PS397: 2 “ “ - but enrolled 3 K

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Shortage will get worse in the next three years

Bir

ths in

Man

hatt

an

C.D

. 1

Births in Community District 1 are increasing by over 60 per year

Also: Over 9000 new and converted apartments Downtown in last five years, and the 935-apartment residential tower above Spruce Street School opens in a few months

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Projected size of Downtown’s kindergarten class @ 60% of births

five years earlier (as in 2010)P

roje

cte

d s

ize o

f kin

derg

art

en

cla

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Projected shortage of seats for Downtown’s kindergarten class

Pro

jecte

d s

ize o

f kin

derg

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Total Downtown kindergarten

capacity

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Dept. of Education’s proposed solution:

Delay Spruce’s Middle School until 2015 and use these six classrooms to take Downtown’s excess elementary enrollment

Give Tweed space, currently used by Spruce, to Innovate Manhattan Charter Middle School for at least three years, starting Fall 2011

Is there enough classroom space to spare in Lower Manhattan elementary schools to justify diverting Tweed for another purpose?

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Present enrollment at Spruce – Fall 2010But what happens in Fall 2011?

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jecte

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Total Spruce elementary

capacity

Spruce K capacity

Spruce K enrollment Spruce total enrollment

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Spruce’s entire elementary capacity will be almost entirely used up by Fall, 2011 –

six or seven K classes in a twelve-classroom school

Pro

jecte

d s

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Total Spruce elementary

capacity

Spruce K capacity

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Dept. of Ed.’s solution – divert all 6 middle school classrooms to elementary grades, “creating” 150

more elementary seats

Pro

jecte

d s

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f S

pru

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erg

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Total Spruce elementary

capacity

Spruce K capacity

Total Spruce capacity

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But: Spruce more than completely full by Fall 2012Must take 194Ks = 8 K classes -

in an 18-classroom school whose oldest kids are in third grade.

Pro

jecte

d s

ize o

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pru

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Total Spruce elementary

capacity

Spruce K capacity

Total Spruce capacity

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In Fall 2013 there is no room for any of the

229 kindergarteners assigned to Spruce.These kids are already two years old in

2010.

Pro

jecte

d s

ize o

f S

pru

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ind

erg

art

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Total Spruce elementary

capacity

Spruce K capacity

Total Spruce capacity

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By Fall 2014 there is a shortage of 509 elementary seats – where will these kids

go to school?

Pro

jecte

d s

ize o

f S

pru

ce k

ind

erg

art

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Total Spruce elementary

capacity

Spruce K capacity

Total Spruce capacity

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Some help is on the way –A new school!

DOE has allocated 400 seats in Capital Plan for Downtown Manhattan

DOE has been searching for a site for new school since Spring 2010

Peck Slip Post Office site is a good possibility

– Speaker Silver has contacted Senator Schumer and Post Office requesting that it sell Peck Slip to DOE

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But not soon enough to prevent overcrowding

Earliest that 400 seats can open is Fall 2013 - too late to prevent Spruce overcrowding in Fall 2011

Need 394 more seats by Fall 2013 (or 244 more seats if divert Spruce middle school seats)

– New school could be full if opens in Fall 2013

– Not just beyond intake capacity, but completely FULL

Need 659 more seats by Fall 2014 (or 509 if divert Spruce middle to elementary)

– so new school overcrowded by 259 kids by 2014, which is 65% over capacity (or 25% if Spruce middle diverted)

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What is the “bottom line?”

Spruce does not have anywhere near enough space to solve Downtown’s school overcrowding problems for Fall 2011, much less over the next 2 – 5 years

The new school will not be ready in time to avoid severe overcrowding at Spruce, and at other Downtown schools

Keeping Tweed for Downtown kids is an essential part of the solution

Tweed is not big enough to be the entire solution

Adequate overflow space for Downtown’s elementary kids must be planned for and secured now

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One last note: Where are we headed?How many more elementary seats does

Downtown still need?

Suppose births plateau at 1000 per year in 2010 and stay at that level

– 881 in 2008, and increasing at about 60 per year

This level likely, since CB 1 already has more than 60,000 people, and a large population nearing their child-raising years

Implies a birth rate of 16.6 per thousand

– typical for a population where many residents will soon start families

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How many more elementary seats does Downtown still need?

If 1000 births per year, each year’s incoming public school class would have 600 kids @ 60% births

– This is 200 seats/year more than capacity, even with new school

Still need 1400 more elementary seats beyond new school

– about 56 elementary home rooms

– Plus cluster space and special needs

Even if K class is 55% of births, need 150 more seats per year = 1050 more elementary seats

But . . . .

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Downtown births may well increase beyond 1000, and these children are

more likely to attend public schools

Downtown Alliance’s 2010 Residential Survey concludes :

“Lower Manhattan . . . . is home to more couples and households with children than singles and roommates. Twenty-three percent of households have children under the age of 18, and results suggest that this proportion will rise, as 40% of childless households (age 45 and under) indicated plans to have children in the next three years.”

“Among households with children, 76% rated local schools as an important reason for living in Lower Manhattan.”

– Up from 56% in 2007

Suggests the “birth yield” might increase far beyond 60%

– Perhaps new school should be 600 seats, not 400

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Thank You

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Data Sources

“Summary of Vital Statistics, The City of New York,” prepared by the Bureau of Vital Statistics, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 1998 – 2008 reports

Downtown Alliance “Quarterly Residential Pipeline” and “Residential Survey Summary - 2010”