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AITPM 2014 National Conference presentation
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The Use of Antifragility Heuristics in Transport PlanningRICHARD ISTED
A Long Term Understanding of Transport
An Activity based understanding – a “Platonic” approach
The problem for Transport Models in the Long Term
• People change their behavioural preferences
• Travel modes and other technological features that are currently not available may be in the future
• Travel modes that are currently available may become redundant
• “Black Swan” events defy inductive reasoning in-built in transport models.
Defining Fragility, Resilience and Antifragility
Concavity and Convexity in responses
Concavity Convexity
A simple example - investment in public transport
A case study – Which corridor to invest in?
y = 29.644x3 - 178661x2 + 4E+08x - 2E+11
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Poly. (Series1)
y = -229.79x3 + 1E+06x2 - 3E+09x + 2E+12
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Series1
Poly. (Series1)
South East Corridor
North East Corridor
South West Corridor
How long should one stick with a transport strategy?
www.jacobs.com | worldwide
The Use of Antifragility Heuristics in Transport Planning
RICHARD ISTED – RICHARD.ISTED@JACOBS.COM
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