October 2013 precognition research

Precognition Research

in Scientific Parapsychology

Nancy L. Zingrone, PhD

www.theazire.orgThe AZIRE Learning Center in Second Life

SLURL: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Madhupak/153/89/60

Today’s Class Topics

• Precognition Cases and Case Collections

• Precognition Experiments

Extrasensory Perception (ESP)

Telepathy

Clairvoyance

Precognition

Precognition

A form of ESP in which the target is some

future event that cannot be deduced from

normally known data in the present.

M. A. Thalbourne, A Glossary of Terms Used in Parapsychology (2003)

Precognition

O An undefined sense that something terrible is going to happen (or something wonderful)

O A uncharacteristic change in behavior that seems to avoid some danger

O A realistic vision or dream that brings details of something on the horizon

O A sudden sense of knowing that moves you to do something altogether different — to save yourself, or others

Larry Dossey, The Science of Premonitions (2010)

“The non-sensory, non-inferred foreknowledge of a future event is

precognition or premonition.”

Larry Dossey

Cases“Precognitive experiences are probably nearly as common as acorns under oak trees.”

Louisa E. RhineESP in Life and Lab, 1967

Form of ExperienceDreams (literal, symbolic)

Intuition / Impressions

Bad Feelings / Anxiety

Hallucinations(visual, auditory, other)

Motor Automatisms

Herodotus on King Croesus (reigned c. 560–546)

Croesus sent delegates to the oracle of Delphi asking if he should attack the Persians.

According to Herodotus they were told “that if he should march against the Persians he should destroy a great empire” (I: 53).

Abraham Lincoln’s DreamW. H. Lamon, Recollections of Abraham

Lincoln (1895)

“I heard subdued sobs, as if a number of people were weeping. I thought I left my bed and wandered downstairs . . . What could be the meaning of all this? . . . I kept on until I arrived at the East Room, which I entered . . . Before me was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestments . . . 'Who is dead in the White House?' I demanded of one of the soldiers. 'The President,' was his answer; 'he was killed by an assassin!‘ ”

Butler-Dwyer Dream Case: 1959

Rita Dwyer: Research chemist.

Edward M. Butler: Rita’s co-worker.

Rocket fuel exploded in Dwyer's lab, she was badly burned.

Butler rescued her from the fire.

Butler had a recurring dream about saving Dwyer from a fire. He saved Dwyer’s life doing exactly what he had "rehearsed" in the dream.

Rita Dwyer

William Fletcher Barrett(1844-1925)

Irish Chemist & Physicist

Credited with helping to found the American Society

for Psychical Research

Interested in a variety of cases, including death-bed

witnesses

Frederic W. H. Myers

(1843-1901)

Society for Psychical Research

Founded in February of 1882

Classical scholar, theorist, early psychologist,

developed the theory of the subliminal mind, wrote

Human Personality and Its Survival After Bodily Death

Eleanor Sidgwick(1845-1936)

Society for Psychical Research

Founded in February of 1882

Methodical investigation of mainly spontaneous cases, with methodological refinements surroundings the level of corroboration available for the cases

Theodore Besterman

(1904-1976)

Was active in the SPR

from 1927 through 1935 as the Research Officer, collaborated with J. W.

Dunne who was known for his study of his own

precognitive experiences

H. F. Saltmarsh(1881-1943)

Joined the SPR in 1921

Two primary interests, precognition and the

survival of personal identity beyond bodily death, also

conducted some mediumship investigations

Some Pre-Rhine Research

O Publication of individual cases in the SPR proceedings (first one by Dr. William Barrett, in 1884)

O Publication of case collections (first one by Eleanor Sidgwick, 250 cases considered, in 1888; then Myers, 85 cases considered, in 1895 and Saltmarsh, 50 years worth of published cases considered, in 1934)

O Dream experiment conducted with volunteers (first one by Theodore Besterman, 3 series, 43 subjects, 430 dreams, 45 of which were precognitive, in 1932)

Sidgwick, E. (1889). On

the evidence for premonitions. Proceedings of the Society for

Psychical Research.

Evidence from dreams suggestive, but not conclusive for

premonitions

Dreams about: Death, Accidents, Winners of races, Trivial Incidents, Symbolic Dreams

Eleanor M. Sidgwick(1845-1936)

Eleanor M. Sidgwick’s 1889 Study of Cases

Pre-Rhine research approaches:O Emphasized analytical treatment of

cases for the purpose of uncovering features, patterns, types, possible conventional explanations

O Experimental work focused on single individuals, or groups of individuals engaged in a free response task such as dream telepathy, drawing experiments

O Advantages: Closer to “life”O Disadvantages: Difficult to establish

as evidence

Saltmarsh’s “Perfect Precognitive Case”:

O Case must have been told or recorded prior to the event precognized

O Include details so that chance foreknowledge is precluded

O Narrow limits of time for fulfillment, and narrow description of place or event

O Not inferable from knowledge gathered by conventional senses

O No one else has knowledge of the event, so that telepathy could be ruled out

O Excluded hyperesthesia

Enter the Rhines …

The remit:O To take the spontaneous phenomena of

experience and mediumship and operationalize it for laboratory testing:O Variations on a card-guessing regime:

O Telepathy: One sender concentrating on a card, one receiver guessing the card, a statistically analyzable matching of “call” to “card

O Clairvoyance: One perceiver guessing at hidden cards

O Precognition: Calls recorded before cards were prepared for guessing

Research problems peculiar to precognition:

O If precognition exists, how do we know a clairvoyance test measures clairvoyance and not precognition?

O What if an experimental participant is seeing the next target or something else?

O Do experimental results really tell us something about spontaneous experiences?

Still, the results were very good …

O Strong evidence in the Rhine team’s data for positive scoring in experiments with a precognitive set-up over life of the lab, with unselected subjects

O Meta-analysis from 1935-1987, still strong evidence: O 309 studiesO 42 investigatorsO 2 millions trialsO 50,000 subjects

O Overall z = 11.41, wildly significant

Trying to GetCloser to

Precognition in Life

Click icon to add picture

Case collections still being compiled from 1937 through

the 1960s

Drawing experiments being conducted at the Rhine until

the early 1940s

Reneé Warcollier, Upton Sinclair, and others were

using open ended methods of ESP testing closer to spontaneous cases

Stanley Krippner & Montague Ullman (1960s)

“The DescentFrom the Cross”Max Beckmann,

1917, Oil on Canvas

Target for a Successful

Dream Telepathy Session

O Prof Chris Roe, Andrew Hodrien & Laurrie Kirkwood (England) at the 2012 Convention (Durham, NC)

O Tested 40 participants on Precognitive Remote Viewing and Precognition Ganzfeld

O Target pool = 40 target sites using Google’s interactive maps (10 sets of 4) chosen for distinctiveness, aesthetics and interest

O 30% hit rate for the RV trialsO 35% hit rate for the Ganzfeld trialsO No correlations with personality, experience, but

participants who were more absorbed in the task, less physiologically aroused and had less internal dialogue did better

From recent Parapsychological Association conventions …

Results of free-response precognition tests overall …

O Dream studies since Maimonides significant but less strong than Maimonides

O At-home dream studies show strong effects, less costs, less logistical complications

O Meta-analysis from 1935-1997 showed a stronger significance for precognitive experiments than clairvoyance, but similar effect sizes

From recent Parapsychological Association conventions …

O Jon Taylor (Spain): The Nature of Precognition (presented at the 2013 conference in Viterbo, Italy)

O Precognition is the fundamental form of psychic functioning.

O Precognition is more likely to occur when the future event produces a strong emotional impact.

O Precognition is more likely to occur when the time interval between “now” and “then” is shorter.

O Belief in precognition has an impact on results in laboratory tests.

Main presentiment researchers …

Dick Bierman, Amsterdam/UtrechtDean Radin, IONs

Julia Mossbridge, Northwestern Patrizio Tressoldi, Padova

More basic elements …

O Standardized Target Pool of 600-700 photos

O Emotional (sometimes violent or erotic) targets

O Calm targets

O Task presentation:

O Target selected and shown for 3 seconds

O 10 second inter-trial period

O Repeat 30-40 trials in one sitting, about 15 minutes

O Continuous recording of physiology detection variable

Common hypotheses and analysis …

O That prior to the appearance of the target picture, the participant’s physiological activity changes

O Changes to higher arousal in advance of seeing an emotional photo

O No changes in arousal in advance of seeing a calm photo

O Analysis focuses on:

O Continuous recording of the physiology shows a statistically significant increase in arousal levels 3-4 seconds prior to the target picture appearance

Meta-analysis results from Mossbridge, Tressoldi & Utts …

O 26 studies from 1978 through 2010

O Results provide strong evidence for a presentiment effect

O Studies show consistency across experimenters, laboratories, language groups, detection methods

O Effect Size is small

O More work needs to be done on alternative explanations

O More work needs to be done on the presentiment process

But What Else Could It Be?

Coincidence

Failures to Predict ignored

Subconscious use of currently available

information(sensory / via ESP)

Psychokinesis

Implications

Expansion of Perception

Can the Future Be Changed?

The Nature of Time

Implications for Free Will

Thanks for your Attention!

email: nancy@theazire.org

www.theazire.orgThe AZIRE Learning Center in Second Life

SLURL: http://maps.secondlife.com/secondlife/Madhupak/153/89/60