Interpreting trends: making the most of new developments in the international market - Neil Kemp

Interpreting trends: making the most of new developments in the international market

Dr Neil KempVisiting Fellow

International higher education forum 2014

Today’s presentation agenda

The trends

The competition

Marketing practice: how are we doing?

The challenges

The future

A few questions?

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• How might you select a balanced market portfolio?

• How is the international market segmenting?

• What Marketing-Communications mix is appropriate for the market segments of interest?

• What level of investment is appropriate?

Some messages

• International student mobility continues to grow – but it is also evolving

• Competition to attract students increases

• Some UK universities are doing very well – others are facing declines

• Institutions are getting SMARTer

• Market is very influenced by immigration policies

International student mobility is strong and set to continue! Total globally mobile students (UNESCO)

• Much of the recent increase due to Asia

• Europe and North America steady state

Two percent of ALL higher education students are globally mobile

UNESCO estimate up to 8 million HE students will be studying internationally by 2030

The main source and destination countries in 2010 (UNESCO-UIS)

The UK and international competition

• US

• Australia

• Canada

• European countries

• Other

• Malaysia

• China

• Middle East

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International competition for the UK?

UK international enrolments – recent trends

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UK TNE a success story

(Source HESA)

The US and international enrolments (Open Doors 2011)

Australia

Will there be an enrolment resurgence following changes to visa regime?

Source: AEI Education Australia

The competitors - Europe

Germany

• Modest recent growth

• Chinese enrolment consistent & about 23,000 – not increasing

• Eastern Europe successes seem to be slowing/declining

• Successes in engineering and technology

The Netherlands

• 60% enrolments from Germany

• Relatively low recruitment from non-EU countries

France

• Francophone country domination – North and West Africa

• Modest numbers of non-EU, Chinese and Vietnamese

UK and its competitors

• UK has greater diversity of source countries than all main competitors

• Lower dependence on China relative to US and Australia

• Market mix and proportions - limited overlap between UK and competitors (nearest is the US)

• Most overlap with competitors is for China: particularly undergraduates and business studies

• UK managers see other UK universities as their competitors – not overseas competitors!

Level of study

Country

Subject of study

International student markets: primary market segmentation

International student enrolments to UK universities according to Mission Group

16Source HESA

International student enrolments to UK universities (HESA)

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International student enrolments to UK universities – leading source countries (HESA)

Trends in international student enrolments to US universities (Open Doors, New York, 2013)

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Some concerns for the UK: PGT enrolments, select non-EU countries

Source HESA

First year undergrad enrolments to UK universities according to lead source countries (less China)

21Source HESA

UK PGT – new enrolments by subject areas

Source HESA

Trends in engineering enrolments according to lead source countries

Source HESA

UK & international student recruitment: an overview

• Excellent overall growth to 2011-12 – then slowdown/decline

• Growth from E/SE Asia making up for declines in South Asia

• Undergraduate recruitment growing strong

• PGT demand is reducing

• PGR demand continues steady

• EU had been good growth, led by undergraduate demand, now slowing

• Russell Group HEIs continue to do well – but others in decline

What are your current concerns in your international activities?

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A few possible ones?

• Meeting recruitment targets?• Unrealistic targets• How to prioritise markets – agreeing priorities• Risk • Market intelligence

• Resources?• Staff• Finances

• Marketing and communications?• What works – what doesn’t• Role of e-marketing

• What does TNE, MOOCs mean for me?

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….. A major challenge for international education marketing professionals concerns how best to balance the priority need to maintain recruitment from the larger and more established country markets, while positioning for new and niche possibilities ……

Tim Rogers & Neil Kemp

….. ‘International student recruitment is an inherently complex, costly and competitive domain, which is becoming increasingly integral to the financial health of many institutions. A strategic, deliberate and informed recruitment approach will help institutions to maximise their opportunities in an efficient manner’ ……..

Rahul Choudaha, World Education Services

In which countries do you plan to invest most of your efforts in the next three years?

• China• India • USA• Nigeria• Vietnam• Brazil• Saudi Arabia• Malaysia• Hong Kong

All the above – and more ……

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Prioritising markets, improving market intelligence

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New paradigm: four new models for non-EU recruitment markets

The BIMAs (Big Markets)

• 3 countries > 20,000

• 6 countries from 6,000 to 20,000

The SIMAs (Steady Markets)

• 13 countries with from 3,000 to 9,000

The EMAs (Emerging Markets)

• Suggest these could be less than 2,000 in 2006 but with 10% pa growth over last 5 years

The NIMAs (Niche Markets)

The non-EU BIMAs (2012-13 data)

Top 3: More than 20,000

China

India

USA

Others (>6,000)

Nigeria

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan

Singapore

3,000 to 6,000 students in UK (HESA)

How might you prioritise? What criteria?

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Norway 4390 4905 5425Korea (South) 5255 5240 5270Taiwan 5165 4895 4640Bangladesh 4225 3955 4365Vietnam 3330 3925 4235Russia 3565 3825 3935Turkey 3755 3775 3830Japan 4100 3940 3785Switzerland 2815 3085 3230Australia 2780 3050 3210United Arab Emirates 3145 3220 3175Iran 3840 3790 3115Sri Lanka 4310 3705 3065

SIMAs - some larger with recent good growth (HESA)

EMAs - some examples with recent growth (Source HESA)

The NIMAs - niche

• How to define?

• Only likely to be small totals – but you have potentially large market share

• Subject based

• Country based

• First mover advantage?

Marketing & communications

• Understand your priority market segments

• Understand your students – importance of WOM (they want to speak with a real person!)

• Student journey

• Talk with them – qualitative feedback

• Market research -

• Review all media formats

• Partnerships

• Digital marketing

• Websites

• Social media

Internationalisation and HE: the virtuous circle of benefits

Resources

• What is appropriate?

• How do we know?

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A few messages:

•Brand matters – ‘Positional Good’

•Don’t set unrealistic targets

•Invest for the long term

•New strategies take time to impact

•International student market is inherently conservative

Some crystal ball gazing – the next five years• China to UK – slow-down or some declines

• South Asian recruitment will grow again

• Undergraduates – growth likely to continue but slowing down

• Positive demand likely to continue from Malaysia, Hong Kong, USA, Canada, Norway and Switzerland

• Brazil, Saudi Arabia other Middle East - problems?

• Growth, but slower than previous - Vietnam, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, Nepal (?)

• Concerns re engineering and technology recruitment to UK

• EU – return to modest growth for UG, exchanges, PGR/PGT still unclear

Many thanks!

Neil Kemp

neil.kemp@nkeducation.com