GEOG3839.12, Temperature reconstructions

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Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Ramzi Touchan University of Arizona

Photograph: Ramzi TouchanMonday, March 7, 2011

Dendroclimatology in Algeria

Photograph: Ramzi TouchanMonday, March 7, 2011

Source: Ramzi Touchan, University of ArizonaMonday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

ENVIRONMENTALQUESTIONS

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forest fires

floods

earthquakes

rising temperatures

insect ecologywater quantity

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CLIMATERECONSTRUCTION

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Source: Hughes and Funkhouser, 1998

tree rings

rain gauges

empirical comparisons between tree-ring and climate data

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Ring-width index

correlation coefficients as a measure of climate signal

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Correlation functions illustrating assocations between tree growth and climate

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‘Reconstructing climate’ based on statistical associations

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R E C O N S T R U C T I N G T E M P E R AT U R E

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2010 Jan-Aug temperature anomaly h"p://www.giss.nasa.gov/Monday, March 7, 2011

Photograph: MariannaMonday, March 7, 2011

NASA global temperature record h"p://www.giss.nasa.gov/Monday, March 7, 2011

Temperature-sensitive trees Northeastern AlaskaMonday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Brian Luckman University of Western Ontario

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St. George, S., and Luckman, B.H. 2001. Extracting a paleotemperature record from Picea engelmannii treeline sites in the central Canadian Rockies. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31, 457-470.

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Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

THE PRINCIPLE OF ECOLOGICAL AMPLITUDEA tree species may grow and reproduce over a certain range of habitats; that range is described as its ecological amplitude. Trees that grow near the margins or limits of their ecological amplitude are o!en sensitive to changes in their environment.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

empirical comparisons

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

“HIGH”and

“LOW”FREQUENCY

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Photograph: Gigi TagliapietraMonday, March 7, 2011

Photograph: protographer23

“HIGH” FREQUENCY

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Photograph: Phil Moore

“LOW” FREQUENCY

Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

CORRELATIONFUNCTION

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Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001

most sites

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001

most sites

furthestnorth

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001

most sites

‘oddball’ site

furthestnorth

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LINEARREGRESSION

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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006Monday, March 7, 2011

LINEARREGRESSION

Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007Monday, March 7, 2011

Photograph: Mark AnbinderMonday, March 7, 2011

SURFACE TEMPERATURERECONSTRUCTIONSFOR THE LAST 2 ,000 YEARS

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCILOF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

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the ‘divergence problem’ is defined as the tendency for tree growth at some previously temperature-limited northern sites to demonstrate a weakening in mean temperature response in recent decades.

Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008Monday, March 7, 2011

Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008Monday, March 7, 2011

“Trees are not thermometers or rain gagues.” Keith Briffa and colleagues

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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday, March 7, 2011

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