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by Ian Glenday of Lean Enterprise Academy shown at the Lean Supply Chain Forum on 5th June 2007 ran by Lean Enterprise Academy
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1
Flow Logic
and
Every Product Every Cycle
How to start
2
Where to start with current plant & equipment limitations?
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The Glenday Sieve
• A tool to help
– Implement Every Product Every Cycle
– Remove waste
4
The Glenday Sieve - first analysis
% Cumulative Sales
% ProductRange
50%
95%
99%
5
The Glenday Sieve - first analysis
Exercise
Data source: $B paint/coatings multinational
6
The Glenday Sieve – second analysis
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GreenGreen Products
% Cumulative
Sales
% Product Range
50% 6%
• High volume/small number of SKUs• Create a “green stream” for these
products– Enable the green stream to flow
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The Glenday Sieveand
Value Stream Mapping
What do you map first?
The Greens
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The Glenday Sieveand
Value Stream Mapping
To make the “greens” flow
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The Glenday Sieveand
Value Stream Mapping
which willas a consequence
reduce non-value added waste
11
YellowYellow Products
% Cumulative Sales
% Product Range
50% 6%
95% 50%
Work to closely to align with Green products– Piggyback with greens where
• Little change-over impact• Differentiation happens off-line
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Yellows
• Work on reasons stopping yellows going into green stream
• E.g.– Changeovers– Batch sizes
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Green stream
• Start with 6% range in fixed cycles• Increase capacity (white space) through EOR• Work on yellows• Reduce barriers to being in green stream• Move yellows into white space• 50% product range BUT 95% volume in green
stream
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Yellow Yellow Products
% Cumulative Sales
% Product Range
50% 6%
95% 50%
– Utilize rapid improvement methodology to remove barriers to flow
e.g.• Grade change time, etc.• Improve line performance
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BlueBlue Products
% Cumulative Sales
% Product Range
50% 6%
95% 50%
99%
• Opportunity for product or packaging harmonization
• Product, materials and/or processing include non-value adding complexity
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Blue SKU’s - removing non-value adding complexity
– Back labels
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Blue SKU’s - removing non-value adding complexity
• Facial Tissue mill• Totally chaotic scheduling environment• Clear bottleneck at the end of the production
process in making bundle packs
Blue opportunity – Printed Shrink Film
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EXAMPLE
Results:• Removed Carton Orienter• One week production cycle (now EPEW)• Transformed a “chaotic” environment to a
smooth and “calm” one• Focus on Multi-pack (Cyclone) bottleneck
– Output rates improved 22% two years in a row
19
Red Products
% Cumulative
Sales
% Product Range
50% 6%95% 50%99% 70%
1% of Sales30% of the SKUs
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More “institutional” waste
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Exercise
Impact of central limit theory
On
Sales predictability
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Facial Tissue SalesFORECASTS PER WEEK
Code 28200 Code 28201 Code 28100 Code 28112 Code 32905200 Ct Case 184 Assorted 100 Ct Case AV 112 Ct Case Walgreens 100 Ct
16,133 9320 5949 2038 120
Actual Demand Actual Demand Actual Demand Actual Demand Actual DemandWk of 5/30 15,386 8936 8743 4218 15
6-Jun 14,355 8413 4548 1874 1513-Jun 17,695 9564 6572 3153 23320-Jun 14,536 9242 5337 1011 6627-Jun 14,513 8048 5363 1065 87
4-Jul 14,668 8246 5581 2002 11711-Jul 16,931 8948 6043 1280 26018-Jul 16,632 9699 5367 1781 6625-Jul 17,777 10294 5200 1327 277
Average 15,833 9043 5862 1968 126
Green Code
RedCode
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Average Sales Forecast Accuracy
ProductAverage Weekly Sales
Weekly Forecast
% Forecast Accuracy
28200 15,833 16,13328201 9,043 9,32028100 5,862 5,94928112 1,968 2,03832905 126 120
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Sales Forecast Accuracy at Weekly LevelWEEKLY FORECAST ACCURACY DATA
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Forecast28200 Sales 15,386 14,355 17,695 14,536 14,513 14,668 16,931 16,632 17,777 16,133
F/C Acc. 95% 89% 110% 90% 90% 91% 105% 103% 110%
28201 Sales 8936 8413 9564 9242 8048 8246 8949 9699 10294 9320F/C Acc. 96% 90% 103% 99% 86% 88% 96% 104% 110%
28100 Sales 8743 4548 6572 5337 5363 5581 6043 5367 5200 5949F/C Acc. 147% 76% 110% 90% 90% 94% 102% 90% 87%
28112 Sales 4218 1874 3153 1011 1065 2002 1280 1781 1327 2038F/C Acc. 207% 92% 155% 50% 52% 98% 63% 87% 65%
32905 Sales 15 15 233 66 87 117 260 66 277 120F/C Acc. 13% 13% 194% 55% 73% 98% 217% 55% 231%
Actual Sales
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Sales Forecast Accuracy at a Weekly Level
Lowest % Highest %28200 to
28201 to
28100 to
28112 to
32905 to
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Sales forecast accuracy at a weekly level
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2820028201281002811232905
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What about Forecasting and Sales Variability?
Generally bigger sellers have less variability
therefore greater predictability
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Rationalisation is NOT the only option!
It is AN option
however
there are many solutions
Red SKU’s
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Buffer tank utilization learning
Pre lean/RFS: Schedule adjustments would have occurred at three points(creating that “vicious cycle”)
Post lean/RFS: No schedule adjustments and normal variability is handled through the buffer tank
0
50
100
150
200
250
2/12
/200
6
2/19
/200
6
2/26
/200
6
3/5/20
06
3/12
/200
6
3/19
/200
6
3/26
/200
6
4/2/20
06
4/9/20
06
4/16
/200
6
4/23
/200
6
4/30
/200
6
5/7/20
06
5/14
/200
6
5/21
/200
6
5/28
/200
6
6/4/20
06
Avg of min su Avg of max su Sum of Inv SU
GPS TCR12SR FAMILY (All) LOCCODE (All)
SUN_DT
Data
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Remove the “window” in to the Buffer Tank…
11/27 12/4 12/11 12/18 12/25 1/1 1/8 1/15STING8RR OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
STING1CAS HIGH HIGH OK OK OK OK OK HIGH
STING3RR OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
STING12RR OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OKSTING15RR HIGH HIGH HIGH OK OK OK OK OK
STING1MR OK OK OK OK HIGH HIGH OK OK
STING1RR OK LOW OK OK OK OK OK OK
STING24RR HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
STING2CAS OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
STING2MR HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH OK OK OK OKSTING6RR OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
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Impact on peopleG’day Ian
I am sure "easy" was a word that sprang to mind when we firststarted fixed cycles...there was a general view that I was insanebut having said that the crew would assassinate anyone whonow tried to take their fixed cycle away...
I'm probably a certifiable "early adopter" and the things youare proposing seem to make so much sense.
best regards
Marty
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Impact on peopleHi Ian
Our Green Flow project started with four products that made up around 30%of our total capacity here in Denmark. To test Green Flow’s proof-of-conceptwe ran three cycles of five weeks per cycle. After fifteen weeks, the project’sfinal fermentation finished followed by the standard purification, granulationor liquid formation, QC analysis and shipping procedures.
The project has been a big success. We have reduced our lead time by 50%for the majority of batches. Even the few batches that required some reworkinghave had a 33% reduced lead time. It has been possible to hold the vast majorityof the agreed start/stop times throughout the supply chain. And lastly almosteveryone, from operators to top management, thinks the Green Flow principleis a far better way of production than what we were doing before. We expect thatGreen Flow will no longer be considered a project but an established way of production.
Best regards,Herman HerzLean Facilitator
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Impact on peopleFrom: Graham, Jeff Sent: Monday, February 15, 2007 10:08 AMTo: Sather, RickCc: Gardhouse, BrianSubject: RE: Huntsville Lean-RFS
Hi Rick
RFS has been a tremendous success for the Huntsville assets. Since the RFS start-upin 2006 productivity has increase from under 15,000 cph to over 18,000 cph in January 2007.The steady upward trend in rate of operation is a testament of the power of a frequent, stable, predictable repeating schedule. I am a believer and would fight any efforts to go back to the prior scheduling chaos!
We’ve been digging into the productivity improvement “toolbox” using standard techniques fitted into the RFS structure. SMED, centerlining, TPM and equipment improvements are all used to improve rates of operation. The approach has been practical with operations and technical team members’ involvement. In particular, the line mechanics and electrical Support are fully engaged making improvements regularly. Efforts have concentrated on eliminating “rocks”, reducing equipment variables and stabilizing the process.
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A major shift in thinking is the idea of “making the cycle” versus daily rates of operation. Instead of measuring rates of operation, we measure where we are in the cycle – ahead or behind by hours. Also when extra hangs are made, it provides all team members a measurable contribution to the business their efforts made especially when there are customer service issues.
As for challenges, RFS continues to show us weaknesses in equipment, procedures and people. Example: the facial tissue grade 280’s continues to be a challenge. Given it is run every week; we know operating issues are independent of operating team, materials, current procedures and equipment set-up. Plans have been developed to methodically address observable barriers to flow to improve rates of operation. Although 280’s rates of operation are stable and predictable, they are poor compared to other grades.
As I stated at the start, the Multifolder rates of operation continue a steady upward positive trend in rate of operation. The stable, predictable repeating schedule contributes to problem solving and solution implementation. I am a RFS believer.
Jeff
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Rocks or barriers to flow
• Visible • Hourly • Operator led• Focussed on achieving plan• Problem identification
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Downtime– tends to get attention & resources
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
std outputactual output
37
“Normal” production variability
430440450460470480490500510520530
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
std outputactual output
Average output = 501/hr
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“Normal” production variability
430440450460470480490500510520530
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
std outputactual output
Average output = 501/hr
• 501/hr average = seen as “good” shift
•“good” hours balance “bad” hours
• little or no problem solving focus
• repeat issues not understood or addressed
• operators get little or no resources to help resolve their repeat issues
3939
RockbustingRockbusting ProcessProcessOperator ResponsibilitiesOperator Responsibilities
At the end of each hour, enter results on the“Line 31 hourly Efficiency Board”
– Green Bar if over the standard– Red Bar if under the standard
4040
4141
Contact ProcessContact Process
Operator
Make necessary contacts if the hourly casecount goes below the Standard LineEfficiency.
4242
Contact ProcessContact Process
Hour 1: Contacts the Line Supervisor
Hour 2: Contacts Shift/Area Manager
4343
Contact ProcessContact Process
Hour 3: Contacts the Manufacturing Manager.
Hour 4: Contacts the Plant Manager.
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Rockbusting
• Focus on all “bad” hours (not consecutive hours or single reoccurring issue)
• Operator led
• Visible process that triggers help (NOT a problem solving process)
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“ROCK” Busting - Sustaining Action: Follow-up Process for Rock Identification & Elimination
No Team Action Needed
Decision
Point
Lean Steering Team decides the need for
Rock Busting in a certain area
Gather information
from all shifts & perform sieve
analysis
Potential Rocks documented on
Supervisors Daily Shift
notes (email)Supervisor flags
the need for Rock Busting Team to
meet•Rock Busting Team Members
OperatorSupervisor
Maintenance SupervisorQuality Assurance Specialist
EngineeringSanitation
Maintenance Techs
Report Findings and Corrective Actions to
Distribution with specific timeline &
person(s) responsible
Implement Corrective Actions and continue
to monitor hourly results
Team Gathers Data & Executes Problem
Solving Process (Brainstorming, etc.)
Team involves any other necessary resources (incl.
Corporate)
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Schedule BreaksA tracking mechanism
47
Schedule BreaksExample of tracking breaks
Hard Rollover
8
Business / Other
36
Materials76
Customer92
Site/Asset113
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 TOTAL FAMILY CARE RfS Schedule Breaks
Hard Rollover Business/Other Materials Customer Site/Asset
unt of Reason Description
Reason Description
48
Schedule BreaksConclusions
• Schedule Break Log data is critical to understanding root cause, and standardization of data is a must
• Three major barriers to flow:
– Site/Asset (36%) – Customer (28%)– Materials (23%)
2006 RfS Breaks - Internal or External* (%)Customer
28%
Kimberly-Clark72%
49
Schedule BreaksDeeper dive – Site/Asset breaks
Site/Asset reason code breakdown (2006 totals)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
White SpacePlan
Rates ProjectConflict
MachineFailure
HumanResources
Runout
50
Schedule BreaksDeeper dive
- Materials Breaks
51
From Problem-hiding to Problem-solving
• Focus on meeting the plan NOT line efficiencies
• Identification of rocks & barriers to flow
• Problem solving activity separate to “get the line running NOW!”
52
Changing the logic from
Batch to Flow
Overall Summary
53
Toyota Production System
Jidoka
-Andon
-Poka-Yoke
-Visual control
-5S, etc.
Just-in-time
-continuous Flow
-Takt time
-Pull system
Customer service
Continuous Improvement
AndElimination of MUDA (waste)
Lead TimeCostQuality
Stability & Standardized Work
Levelled production (heijunka)
54
Production Levelling or Heijunka
= Foundation of Lean
Therefore essential to beinga truly Lean Enterprise
55
• Final step in the process, not how Toyota started
• What you see is different to how it was achieved
• You now know the “secret” = EVERY PRODUCT EVERY CYCLE
56
New Paradigm Supply Chain Logic
• Every Product Every Cycle is the key and required to support production leveling
• Use the Glenday Sieve and pattern production based on SKU categories
• Rigid cycle (start time and sequence) creates Economies of Repetition
• Utilize “buffer tanks” to manage variability and exceptions– instead of always re-planning to a target– Flexible quantity when limits are broken
57
Every product Every Cycle
• A rigid disciplined PUSH process
• Leads to stability and standardisation as a consequence
• Invest improvements in faster cycles
58
Progression over timeEstablish an EPEC pattern, leverage Economies of Repetition (EOR) & create stability. A push flow
Fixed sequence, fixed volume
Fixed sequence, unfixed volume
Unfixed sequence, unfixed volume
Respond closer to demand, continue to rely on EOR.Sustain flow with some pull
Produce to demand.True flow and pull
At this point, you will have a true Consumer Driven Supply Network
Increasin
g capability, responsiven
ess, lower cost an
d cash
Faster fixed sequence, fixed volume Maximise impact of EOR &stability. Increase rate of flow.
Unfixed sequence, fixed volumeBreak reliance on EPEC &EOR. Pull using small fixed volumes.
59
Getting started
What – specifically – are yougoing to do as a result of this forum
next week?
Write it down.
60
Levelledproduction
61
Levelledproduction
Every ProductEvery Cycle
62
Levelledproduction
Every ProductEvery Cycle
The GlendaySieve
63
Levelledproduction
Economies of Repetition
Every ProductEvery Cycle
The GlendaySieve
64
Levelledproduction
Economies of Repetition
Every ProductEvery Cycle
The GlendaySieve
65
Levelledproduction
Economies of Repetition
Every ProductEvery Cycle
The GlendaySieve
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