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Keynote speech I gave at the 2014 Fall Convocation (for faculty and staff) at Aims Community College in Greeley, Colorado. The audience was very engaged and had a lively discussion about the opportunities opening up for this forward-thinking institution. The speech also set up a very productive working lunch with the college president and her team. Many thanks to all who participated! I learned as much (or more) from you as you learned from me!
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THREE LENSES FOR UNDERSTANDING CHANGEAIMS COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL CONVOCATIONAUGUST 14, 2014 Eric Meade
@ericmeadewww.ericmeade.com
ericmeade@gmail.com
WHAT IS A FUTURIST?
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
THREE LENSES
• Linear• Systems• Complex
LINEAR
OUR VIEWS OF CHANGE HAVE CHANGED
S-CURVE
OUR VIEWS OF CHANGE HAVE CHANGED
Rational Mind
Intuitive Mind
OUR VIEWS OF CHANGE HAVE CHANGED
LINEAR CHANGE AT AIMS CC:A 50-YEAR CASE STUDY
Three Lenses for Understanding Change
LINEAR
LINEAR CHANGE AT AIMS CC
1967
1984
1990s
2000s
QUESTIONS FOR YOU
• What trends have you seen over the last 50 years at Aims CC?
• Which of these trends do you expect to continue in the years ahead?
• Based on that, what do you think is likely to be true of Aims CC in 2030?
SYSTEMS CHANGE IN EDUCATION:A 500-YEAR CASE STUDY
Three Lenses for Understanding Change
Phase IIIPhase I Phase II
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.
Experimentation and Invention
Experimentation and Reinvention
“Back to Basics Bump”
Expansion and Growth
A MODEL OF SYSTEMS CHANGE
Phase IIIPhase I Phase II
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.
1450: Gutenberg invents printing press
1492: Columbus discovers the Americas
1543: Copernican Revolution
1643: First scholarship
1650: Founding of the Royal Society
1620: Bacon’s Novum Organum
1901: Joliet Junior College
1944: GI Bill
1862: Morrill Land-Grant Acts
1976: University of Phoenix
1840: Student Loans
1867: U.S. Dept. of Education
2006: Kahn Academy
2012: Peter Thiel
2012: Coursera
1833: Oberlin College (co-ed)
1837: Mt. Holyoke College
INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING
2002: Google Books
1636: Founding of Harvard University
1854: Ashmun Institute
1980: Cabinet-level ED
1972: Pell Grants
2013: Student debt crisis
Phase IIIPhase I Phase II
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.
1450: Gutenberg invents printing press
1492: Columbus discovers the Americas
1543: Copernican Revolution
1643: First scholarship
1650: Founding of the Royal Society
1620: Bacon’s Novum Organum
1901: Joliet Junior College
1944: GI Bill
1862: Morrill Land-Grant Acts
1976: University of Phoenix
1840: Student Loans
1867: U.S. Dept. of Education
2006: Kahn Academy
2012: Peter Thiel
2012: Coursera
1833: Oberlin College (co-ed)
1837: Mt. Holyoke College
INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING
2002: Google Books
1636: Founding of Harvard University
1854: Ashmun Institute
1980: Cabinet-level ED
“Back to Basics Bump”
1972: Pell Grants
2013: Student debt crisis
Phase IIIPhase I Phase II
For background on model, see George Land and Barbara Jarman, Breakpoint and Beyond.
1450: Gutenberg invents printing press
1492: Columbus discovers the Americas
1543: Copernican Revolution
1643: First scholarship
1650: Founding of the Royal Society
1620: Bacon’s Novum Organum
1901: Joliet Junior College
1944: GI Bill
1862: Morrill Land-Grant Acts
1976: University of Phoenix
1840: Student Loans
1867: U.S. Dept. of Education
2006: Kahn Academy
2012: Peter Thiel
2012: Coursera
1833: Oberlin College (co-ed)
1837: Mt. Holyoke College
INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER LEARNING
2002: Google Books
1636: Founding of Harvard University
1854: Ashmun Institute
1980: Cabinet-level ED
“Back to Basics Bump”
1972: Pell Grants
2013: Student debt crisis
What’s emerging?
QUESTIONS FOR YOU
• Based on this discussion, what do you think is likely to be true of institutions of higher learning in 2030?
• What are the implications of this future for Aims CC?
COMPLEX SYSTEMS CHANGE:A 5,000-YEAR CASE STUDY
Three Lenses for Understanding Change
SOCIAL EVOLUTION
SOCIAL EVOLUTION
SOCIAL EVOLUTION
SOCIAL EVOLUTION
E2Impulsive
E3Self-protective
E4 ConformistE5 Self-aware
E6Conscientious
E7Individualistic
Up next• E8
Autonomous• E9 Integrated
Loevinger’s Stages of Ego Development
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage Description
Integrated Maslow's self-actualizing person
Autonomous "recognition of other people's need for autonomy... a deepened respect for other people and their need to find their own way and even make their own mistakes"
Individualistic "There is a greater tolerance for individual differences... [and] the concept of people as having and being different in different roles."
Conscientious "... recognition of multiple possibilities in situations leads to a sense of choice; decisions are made for reasons. The person strives for goals, tries to live up to ideas, and to improve the self."
Self-aware "The person has become aware that not everyone, including his or her own self, conforms perfectly all the time to the characteristics that stereotypes seem to demand."
Conformist "Rules are accepted just because they are the rules... There is a right way and a wrong way, and it is the same for everybody all the time, or at least for broad classes of people described in demographic terms."
Self-protective "... more or less opportunistic hedonism; they lack long-term goals and ideals. They want immediate gratification and, if they can, will exploit others for their ends."
Impulsive "... physical needs and impulses, dependent on others for control. There is little sense of causation. Rules are poorly understood."
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist
Self-protective
Impulsive
LOEVINGER’S EGO STAGES
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist
Self-protective
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal) of which I am a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal) of which I am a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous
Individualistic “The many diverse groups all around me, across multiple generations”
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal) of which I am a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated
Autonomous “Everyone” (Humanity)Individualistic “The many diverse groups all around
me, across multiple generations”
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal) of which I am a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
Stage What’s your community?
Integrated “Everything” (The Cosmos)Autonomous “Everyone” (Humanity)Individualistic “The many diverse groups all around
me, across multiple generations”
Conscientious “People who are as successful as I am and share my motivations”
Self-aware “The town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal) of which I am a part”
Conformist “My town, nation, religion, school, peer group (work or personal)”
Self-protective “My family, tribe, clan – the people who give me what I want!”
Impulsive “My family, tribe, clan”
EGO DEMOGRAPHICS
Ca. 1970:U.S. adult population concentrated here
Dominant valuesFamily valuesPatriotismMaterial successEconomic growthEducational achievement
The proportion of a population at each stage of Loevinger’s model.
EGO DEMOGRAPHICS
Ca. 2030:U.S. adult population concentrated here
Dominant valuesMaterial successEquitable growthEnvironmental sustainabilitySocial justiceTolerance and inclusion
The proportion of a population at each stage of Loevinger’s model.
TABLE DISCUSSION
In the projected U.S. ego demographics of 2030:• What is the meaning of:
– Community– Education– Institution– Learning
• How might Aims Community College serve its vision and mission in 2030? How might the vision or mission have changed?
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONThree Lenses for Understanding Change
USES OF THESE LENSES
• How are you classifying external changes?– Linear?– Systemic?– Complex/transformative?
• How are you classifying internal changes?– Linear?– Systemic?– Complex/transformative?
• To what kinds of change are you aspiring?– Linear?– Systemic?– Complex/transformative?
THANK YOU
Eric MeadeVisioning • Futuring • Planning • Coachingericmeade@gmail.comwww.ericmeade.com571-201-5379
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