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A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of July 2014) Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org
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WORLD WHEATSource: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
12/13 13/14 14/15
658 714 705
679 706 700
-21 8 5
0 2
World Production and Use
0 3
World Beginning Stocks
0 4Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World wheat supply & demand
Date 12/13 13/14 14/15
Supply
Trade
Demand
Ending
stocks
197 176 184
658 714 705
855 890 889
137 164 152
543 572 571
137 133 129
679 706 700
176 184 190
Exports/imports
Beginning stock
Production
Supply total
Food & seed
Feed & residual
Use tool
0 5
Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
0 6*Ending stocks
Australia Situation
0 10
EU-27 Ending Stocks
0 12
International Wheat Factors
Global wheat production projected to reach 705 MMT, down 1.3% from 2013/14 but
second highest on record.
Total global supply estimate at 889 MMT; 1 MMT lower than 2013/14.
World consumption forecast to fall 1% to 700 MMT, with feed demand forecast to
decline by 4MMT.
World beginning stocks expected to increase by 4.5% from 2013/14 to 184 MMT.
Argentinian exports projected to rebound to 6.5 MMT, up from 2.0MMT in 2013/14.
0 9
Argentina Situation
0 11
Black Sea Exports
0 7
U.S. Situation
0 8
Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
489
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1870
1650*
3210
270
529
13/14*
Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)
0 13
Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop – 1,870 million tons (need to import 43% of requirement) = import
parity driven.
Plentiful world stocks and current Northern Hemisphere wheat harvesting keeping
pressure on world prices.
US prices have also declined sharply the last month closing the spread to other origin
wheat prices.
Local wheat tariff and trigger levels need to be closely monitored placing a floor price
on local wheat prices.
Current pace of imports on track with requirements.
0 14
0 15
0 16
US$/ZAR
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