WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on

their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

10/11 11/12 12/13

652 695 663

654 696 683

-2 -1 -20

0 1

Major Users of Wheat

China 116 million tons per annum

India 91 million tons per annum

South Africa

0 2

3,10 million tons per annum,

including exports to our

African neighbors - not really a factor

World wheat supply & demand

Date 10/11 11/12 12/13

Supply

Trade

Demand

Ending

stocks

201 198 198

652 695 663

852 893 860

132 154 135

538 550 549

116 146 134

654 696 683

198 198 177

Exports/imports

Beginning stock Production Supply total

Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool

0 3

World Beginning Stocks

0 4

World Ending Stocks

0 5

Wheat Expectations

World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are forecast to decline by 10,6% to 177

million tons. China’s ending stock is 55,5 million tons accounting for 31% of

total world stocks.

Total world wheat consumption is expected to decrease by (-1,9%) and by a

large 8% in the feed market due to the high prices and smaller availability (-12

million tons).

Black Sea wheat production has declined to an estimated 83 million tons

from 114 million tons in 2011/12 due to adverse growing weather.

World wheat production is forecast to decrease to 663 million tons in

2012/13, down significantly from the record 695 million tons in 2011/12 but still

above the 652 million tons of 2010/11.

Global stocks to usage ratio expected to fall to 26%.

0 6

U.S. Situation

0 7

Canada Situation

0 8

Black Sea Exports

0 9

Argentina Situation

0 10

Australia Situation

0 11

Global Ending Stocks and Price

0 12

Date

Opening stock

Production

Imports

478

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

2005

1550

3199

287

547

11/12

Supply & demand of wheat in South

0 13

Wheat Summary

2012/13 world wheat crop estimated 4,6% smaller than 2011/12 record crop.

2012/13 world wheat consumption estimated 1,9% lower than 2011/12 crop.

Larger US and Canadian crops will result in increased exports to compensate

for the lower Black Sea exports

US wheat prices are not competitive and exports are lagging estimates, with

Egypt recently tendering to buy 180 000 tons from Russia and 60 000 tons

from the Ukraine at US$30/ton discounts to US wheat prices.

Local wheat prices for Sept are currently trading above Argentine inland

import parity levels.

New season local wheat plantings are estimated 9,6% lower meaning that at

least 1,7 million tons of imports will be required to balance demand.

0 14

R / US$ Exchange rate

0 15

Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio

0 16

Kansas Sept Futures Price (HRW Wheat)

0 17

Local Prices

0 18

2900

2850

2800

2750

2700

2650

Thank you