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A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of August 2014) Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org
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WORLD WHEATSource: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
12/13 13/14 14/15
658 714 716
680 706 707
-22 8 9
0 2
World Production and Use
0 3
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
0 4Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World wheat supply & demand
Date 12/13 13/14 14/15
Supply
Trade
Demand
Ending
stocks
197 176 184
658 714 716
855 890 900
137 165 152
543 574 572
137 132 135
680 706 707
176 184 193
Exports/imports
Beginning stock
Production
Supply total
Food & seed
Feed & residual
Use tool
0 5
Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
0 6*Ending stocks
World Beginning Stocks
0 10
World Ending Stocks
0 12
International Wheat Factors
Global wheat production projected to reach a record 716 MMT, up from last years
record 714 MMT.
Total global supply estimate at 900 MMT; 10 MMT higher than in 2013/14.
World consumption forecast to increase by 1 MMT to 707 MMT, with feed demand
forecast to increase by 3 MMT.
World ending stocks forecast to increase by 4.8% to 193 MMT from 184 MMT in
2013/14.
US wheat production is expected to decline by 5% and the Canadian crop is forecast to
decline by 25%.
Black Sea wheat production is forecast to increase by 7% and Argentina’s wheat
production by 19% to 12.5 MMT.
0 9
Canada Situation
0 10
Argentina Situation
0 11
U.S. Situation
0 8
Black Sea Exports
0 8
Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
489
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1870
1650*
3220
267
522
13/14*
Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)
0 13
Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop – 1,870 million tons (need to import 43% of requirement) = import
parity driven, new season local crop even smaller, need more imports to balance
supply.
Concern on plentiful world stocks is quality of wheat and low percentage of milling
versus feed wheat.
Possible implementation of wheat tariff depending on US HRW wheat prices.
Current pace of imports on track with requirements.
Quality of actual wheat imports into South Africa.
0 14
0 15
0 16
US$/ZAR
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