WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on

their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

10/11 11/12 12/13

652 696 653

655 695 678*

-3 1 -25

0 1

Major Users of Wheat

China 117 million tons per annum

India 90 million tons per annum

South Africa

0 2

3,20 million tons per annum,

including exports to our

African neighbors - not really a factor

World Production and Use

0 3

World Ending Stocks

0 4

World wheat supply & demand

Date 10/11 11/12 12/13

Supply

Trade

Demand

Ending

stocks

201 198 198

652 696 653

853 894 851

132 157 131

538 551 544

117 144 134

655 695 678

198 198 173

Exports/imports

Beginning stock Production Supply total

Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool

0 5

Wheat Expectations

World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are forecast to decline by 12,6% to 173

million tons. China’s ending stock is 55 million tons accounting for 31,8% of

total world stocks.

Total world wheat consumption is expected to decrease by (-2,4%) and by a

large 7% in the feed market due to the high prices and smaller availability (-10

million tons).

Black Sea wheat production has declined to an estimated 78 million tons

from 114 million tons in 2011/12 due to adverse growing weather.

World wheat production is forecast to decrease to 653 million tons in

2012/13, down significantly from the record 696 million tons in 2011/12 but

still above the 652 million tons of 2010/11.

Global stocks to usage ratio expected to fall to 26%.

0 6

U.S. Situation

0 7

EU-27 Situation

0 8

Australia Situation

0 9

Black Sea Exports

0 10

Global Ending Stocks and Price

0 11

Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio

0 12

Opening stock

Production

Imports

682

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

1762

1500

(3112)

(269)

563

12/13

Supply & demand of wheat in South

0 13

Wheat Summary

2012/13 world wheat crop estimated 6,1% smaller than 2011/12 record crop.

2012/13 world wheat consumption estimated 2,4% lower than 2011/12 crop.

Larger US and Canadian crops will result in increased exports to compensate

for the lower Black Sea exports

US wheat prices remain high and uncompetitive and exports are lagging

estimates, with Egypt recently tendering to buy French and Argentine wheat.

Local wheat prices for December are currently trading at Argentine inland

import parity levels

Larger carry-in stock 1 Oct 2012 (+200 000 tons) vs. last season and more

than 250 000 tons of imports in Oct and Nov coupled to the start of the new

season harvesting, could pressure prices.

0 14

R / US$ Exchange rate

0 15

South Africa Monthly Wheat Imports

(tons) (*Oct 12- only 2 wks imports)

0 16

Kansas Dec futures price (HRW Wheat)

0 17

Local Prices

0 18

2900

2850

2800

2750

2700

2650

Thank you