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RGP
Mexico & The Americas UpdateSeptember – November 2016
Outline
2
Country Risk
Mexican Stock Exchange
Securities Market
1
2
3
4
Exchange Rates
Inflation Rate5
Investment Unit (UDI)6
Economic Confidence Indicator (IMCE)7
International Reserves8
Mexico Economic Overview
United States
Canada
Colombia
1
2
3
4
Mexico
Brazil5
Argentina6
Chile7
Peru8
The Americas Economic Overview
Mexican Exchange Rates
3
$19.60$20.10$20.60$21.10$21.60$22.10$22.60$23.10
30/11/16$21.8418
September October November
30/09/16$21.6370
31/10/16$20.6850
$15.15$16.15$17.15$18.15$19.15$20.15$21.15
30/11/16$20.5155
September October November
30/09/16$19.3776
31/10/16$18.8887
$21.60$22.40$23.20$24.00$24.80$25.60$26.40$27.20
30/11/16$25.5459
September October November
30/09/16$25.1153
31/10/16$22.9894
$12.50$13.00$13.50$14.00$14.50$15.00$15.50$16.00
30/11/16$15.2416
September October November
30/09/16$14.7449
31/10/16$14.0174
Note: Mexican Pesos per CurrencySource: Mexican Central Bank, www.banxico.org.mx, 2016
Mexican Country Risk
4
The Country Risk indicates the possibilities of an emerging country failing to fulfill its obligations over external debt payments, whether for capital or interest. The higher the Country Risk, the larger the possibility of default.
It is composed of three main sources:
• Sovereign Risk
• Transfer Risk
• Generic Risk
It is measured through the use of the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) created by J.P. Morgan Chase.
Source: www.economia.com.mx, 2016
September October November200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
220 221
258
Country Risk
Note: Basis points
Mexican Stock Exchange
5Source: Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), http://www.bmv.com.mx/, 2016
The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) is a public institution that operates under a concession granted by the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), observing the Mexican Securities Law. Its shareholders are authorized brokerage firms, which each own one share. Its broad market indicator is known as “Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones” (IPC).
Marketable Securities•Capitals Market (Stocks, Fibras)•Capital Development Market (CKDes)
• Debt Market (Government, Short, Medium and Long Term Debt).
Sep-tember
30th
October 31st
November 30th
43,50044,00044,50045,00045,50046,00046,50047,00047,50048,00048,500
47,245.80
48,009.28
45,315.96
Price and Market Rates Index (IPC)
Mexican Securities Market
6Source: Mexican Central Bank, www.banxico.org.mx, 2016
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) carries out operations in the securities market in order to regulate the liquidity of Mexico’s financial system.
It also undertakes primary auctions of securities for the government and other public sector entities, and issues regulations on several financial operations of financial intermediaries.
Cetes 28Zero coupon bonds denominated in Mexican Pesos issued by the Mexican Government. The instrument due in 28 days is a common reference.
Sep-tember
30th
October 31st
November 30th
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
4.41%4.75%
5.62%
Government Securities Auc-tion’s Monthly Results (Cetes
28-days)
Mexican Inflation Rate
7Source: Mexican Central Bank, www.banxico.org.mx, 2016
Inflation can be defined as a continuous and
widespread increase in goods and services
prices.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the
statistical instrument that calculates inflation
by continuously measuring the price
changes of households’ representative
basket of goods and services. Sep-tember
October November 2.50%
2.60%
2.70%
2.80%
2.90%
3.00%
3.10%
2.73%
2.97%
3.06%
Annualized Inflation Rates measured monthly
Mexican Investment Unit (UDI)
8Source: Mexican Central Bank, www.banxico.org.mx and Ministry of Finance, www.sat.gob.mx, 2016
The Investment Unit (Unidad de Inversion,
UDI) is a value unit linked to the overall
movement of prices. It is commonly used in
financial operations or investment
instruments that are required to guarantee a
return above inflation. The Mexican Central
Bank is the responsible authority to publish
its value in Mexican Pesos for each day of the
month. Sep-tember
30th
October 31st
November 30th
5.400000
5.420000
5.440000
5.460000
5.480000
5.500000
5.520000
5.540000
5.454790
5.493667
5.527929
Investment Unit (UDI)
Mexican Economic Confidence Index (IMCE)
9Source: Public Accountants Mexican Association, IMCP, http://imcp.org.mx/, 2016
The Mexican Economic Confidence Index, IMCE, is an indicator which aims to quantify the expectation of the perceived business climate through the perception of more than 20,000 registered public accountants of nearly 60 colleges affiliated to Public Accountants Mexican Institute, IMCP.
The indicator is divided into two main components, which presents the current perception in the business climate as well as the perspective in six months. Its score is measured through a range of 0 to 140 points. Higher values represent higher optimism.
Sep-tember
October November$65
$66
$67
$68
$69
$70
$71
$72
69.9870.84
67.05
Economic Confidence Indi-cator
Mexican International Reserves
10Source: Mexican Central Bank, www.banxico.org.mx, 2016
Known as financial assets invested abroad by the Mexican Central Bank that can easily be converted into means of payment.
According to the Mexican Central Bank, the following are considered as International Reserves:
• Foreign bank notes and coins;
• Deposits, securities and stocks payable outside of Mexico;
• Loans by Central Banks payable at no longer than six months;
• The Special Drawing Rights at the International Monetary Fund.
Sep-tember
30th
October 31st
November 30th
$173,000
$173,500
$174,000
$174,500
$175,000
$175,500
$176,000
$176,500$175,935
$175,230
$174,078
International Reserves (Mil-lion USD)
20 Largest Economies by GDP
11Source: World Bank, 2016
Saudi ArabiaSwitzerland
TurkeyNetherlands
IndonesiaMexico
SpainRussia
AustraliaKorea
CanadaBrazil
ItalyIndia
FranceU.K.
GermanyJapanChina
U.S.
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000
$646.0$664.7$718.2$752.5$861.9
$1,144.3$1,199.1$1,326.0$1,339.5$1,377.8$1,550.5
$1,774.7$1,814.7
$2,073.5$2,421.6
$2,848.7$3,355.7
$4,123.2$10,866.4
$17,946.9
20 Largest Economies by GDP
Billion, Current US$
12
The Americas Economic Overview
Mexico
13
MexicoInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 2.7%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Trillion USD) $1.144
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 2.5%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $9,710
International Reserves(Million USD, March 2016) $179,708.03
Exchange Rate(Mexican pesos per USD, July 29th, 2016) $18.7837
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 35 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 4.3
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
United States
14
United StatesInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 0.1%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Trillion USD) $17.95
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 2.4%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $54,960
International Reserves(Million USD, April 2016) U$121,269.45
Exchange Rate(Euro per USD, July 29th, 2016) $0.8949
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 76 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 5.6
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Canada
15
CanadaInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 1.1%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Trillion USD) $1.551
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 1.1%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $47,500
International Reserves(Million USD, April 2016) $83,922
Exchange Rate(CAN per USD, July 29th, 2016) $0.7677
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 83 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 5.3
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Colombia
16
ColombiaInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 5.0%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Billion USD) $292.1
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 3.1%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $7,130
International Reserves(Million USD, March 2016) $46,798.23
Exchange Rate(Colombian pesos per USD, July 29th, 2016) $3,071.30
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 37 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 4.3
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Brazil
17
BrazilInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 9%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Trillion USD) $1.775
GDP Growth Rate(2015) -3.8%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $9,850
International Reserves(Million USD, April 2016) $362,200.63
Exchange Rate(Brazilian real per USD, July 29th, 2016) $3.2489
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 38 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 4.1
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Argentina
18
ArgentinaInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 10.6%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Billion USD) $548.1
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 0.5%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2014) $13,640
International Reserves(Million USD, March 2016) $29,571.69
Exchange Rate(Argentinian pesos per USD, July 29th, 2016) $15.0050
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 32 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 3.8
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Chile
19
ChileInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 4.3%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Billion USD) $240.2
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 2.1%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $14,060
International Reserves(Million USD, March 2016) $39,552.98
Exchange Rate(Chilean pesos per USD, July 29th, 2016) $655.70
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 70 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 4.6
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Peru
20
PeruInflation Rate(Consumer Prices, Annual) 3.6%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)(Current USD, 2015) (Billion USD) $192.1
GDP Growth Rate(2015) 3.3%
GDP per Capita(Current USD, 2015) $6,200
International Reserves(Million USD, May 2016) $60,445
Exchange Rate(Peruvian pesos per USD, July 29th, 2016) $3.3520
Corruption Perception(Corruption Perception Index, Score 2015) 36 / 100
Global Competitiveness Index(Min 2.84; Max 5.76) (2015 – 2016 Edition) 4.2
Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Transparency International, World Economic Forum and Bloomberg, 2016.
Our Global Footprint
21
OFFICES SUPPORTING THE AMERICAS
47 OFFICES SUPPORTING EUROPE
13OFFICES SUPPORTING ASIA PACIFIC
12
Global capability with an emphasis on local execution.
Potential areas of collaboration
We would love to explore opportunities for collaboration with your company, becoming your trusted business partners for your Latin American operations in any of the following scenarios:
- Traditional Headhunting
- Interim Operational Support (Director and Manager levels)
- Project Support (System Implementations, Compliance, Project Management, Audits, Special or confidential initiatives)
- Traditional Consulting (Assessments, Assurance, Process Improvement, Reengineering, Business transformations, M&A, Integrations, Turn-arounds)
22
Why RGP?
• We offer maximum flexibility for your projects and initiatives.
• You select the consultants you want to work with. We do not impose a decision.
• We can strengthen your talent pool in a quick and reliable way.
• You are not hiring a single consultant, but a solid international consulting firm.
• Would you want to hire one of our consultants? We offer a model that can give you the best value in terms of talent recruitment.
23
24
Your Latin America Team – Let’s talk!
NESTOR GONZALEZ
Senior Managing Director – Latin America
Nestor.Gonzalez@RGP.com
+1.713.403.1967
ARMANDO NURICUMBO, CPA
Managing Director - Mexico
Armando.Nuricumbo@RGP.com
+52.55.2000.6505
RAMON MONROY
Director – Strategic Accounts
Ramon.Monroy@RGP.com
+52.55.2000.6522
MEXICO CITY OFFICE
Mariano Escobedo 476 P14, Nueva Anzures, Mexico DF, 11590
www.ResourcesGlobal.mx
+52.55.2000.6500
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