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S U G A R R U S H !S U G A R R U S H ! SUGAR AND THE CITY!
Perspectives on the Sugar Market & Brazil!
Eddie Tofpik Member of the Society of Technical Analysts. Market Technicians Association (affiliate)
New York – 14th May 2013
SUGAR AND THE CITY! 3
Last time we metIn London
In October 2012!
18.09…KEY!
18
18.09 ……..!
…so what does it look like…
Now!
So what can we see here?
…to recap!
What have we learned since Oct 2012!
• 1) 18.09 Absolute Fib ultimately failed as support – now resistance!
• 2) Long MA (currently 19.13 ) still acting as massive overhead resistance!
• 3) Key Reversals Up all ultimately failed – though supportive short-term!
• 4)…but KR’s Down rare & only 50:50!
• 5) Market is bearish but in no hurry to decline!
Take a look again!
All pretty bearish!Let’s look fresh again!
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly Chart
The Monthly ChartSo now lets get closer!
The Weekly Chart – Bearish Schiff Pitchfork Looking good!
So now lets get closer!
The Daily Chart – Bearish Schiff Pitchfork STILL Looking good!
Let’s look into the future!
Key points in price & time !
Key points in price & time !
To recap!• Important price levels
– 1) 18.09 (18.04) – 50% Absolute Fib!– 2) 16.48– 3) 15.20– 4) 13.78 – 31.2% Absolute Fib!– 5) 13.00 is important (low of 2010) but to me 13.78 is key!
Important dates1)5th – 18th June best 11th June2)23rd – 30th August best 26th August3)23rd – 31st October best 31st October4)30th December – 15th January best 8th January 2014
All dates best fit at the current time!
To recap!• Important price levels
– 1) 18.09 (18.04) – 50% Absolute Fib!– 2) 16.48– 3) 15.20– 4) 13.78 – 31.2% Absolute Fib!– 5) 13.00 is important (low of 2010) but to me 13.78 is key!
Important dates1)5th – 18th June best 11th June2)23rd – 30th August best 26th August3)23rd – 31st October best 31st October4)30th December – 15th January best 8th January 2014
All dates best fit at the current time!
I pause now for questions!
U. S. Dollar
vs.
Brazilian Real
…from last time Back in October
In London
One word of caution!The chances of a False Break
are increasing!
…so what does it look like…
Now!
One word of caution!The chances of a False Break
are increasing!
100% RIGHT!
100% RIGHT!
So what happened next?
The coincidence of Fib support at 1.9450-1.9455 proved very good!
So where now?
Lots of sideways!
More of the same perhaps?
Support on the Uptrend & the 50% Fib. Resistance from the Long MA & April highs!
I pause for questions!
NYMEXNatGas
As a proxy for Fertilizer costs!
…from last time Back in October
In London!
So many bullish points last time! (11) – a bit of a mess!
NEW!The
HandymaxIndex!!
Uptrend good – Reverse H&S good (evidence that H+S work s here) – Downtrend only a 2 pointer. Expect a move up to test the 600 area.
I am mindful that time is short
so…..
Here is the final bit!
This Publication is issued by ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’ which is regulated by The Financial Services Authority and is a member of The London Stock Exchange. References to ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ in this Publication shall mean ADMISI unless otherwise stated. This Publication was prepared and distributed by us for information purposes only, and may contain information, advice, recommendations and/or opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by us and our officers, employees, associated and/or affiliated companies. This Publication should not be construed as solicitation, nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any derivative, security or investment. The information and opinions contained within this Publication were considered by us to be valid when published. This Publication may also contain information that has been provided to us by third parties. The source of such information may be disclosed within this Publication where relevant. Whilst we consider we have taken all reasonable steps to ensure the information is correct, we do not under any circumstances whatsoever, warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance upon this Publication to undertake trading, does so entirely at their own risk, and accordingly, we do not accept any liability as a result, whether direct or indirectly incurred. Derivatives and securities markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements, and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Currency movements may also have an unfavourable, as well as favourable effect on the value of the underlying investment and/or assets. Investments and/or strategies discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors. Accordingly, if any person reading this Publication has doubts about their particular suitability, they should consult an independent investment adviser.
+44 20 7390 2952 (24 Hours)eddie.tofpik@admisi.com
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