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Market Timing w/ the MACD
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MARKET TIMING WITH THE MACD
Reinhold LambUniversity of North Florida
Ibrahim AlfawzanSaudi Hollandi Capital
Richard ZuberUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte
February 22, 2014American Society of Business and Behavioral Sciences
Predicting the Stock MarketEfficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
Fama, E., 1965, “The Behavior of Stock Market Prices,” Journal of Business.
At any given time, prices fully reflect all available information on a particular stock and the market.
In efficient markets, prices become not predictable but random, so no investment pattern can be discerned.
Forms of EfficiencyStrong Form Efficiency
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency
Weak Form Efficiency - This type of EMH claims that all past prices of a stock or the market are reflected in today's prices. Consequently, technical analysis cannot be used to predict the market.
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence
“MACD” – Gerald Appel, 1977
An indicator of Momentum
Momentum - the tendency for rising prices to rise further, and falling prices to continue falling
Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 1993, “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency.” Journal of Finance, 48.
Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 1999, “Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations,” NBER #7159.
Moving AveragesMoving Averages – smooth out fluctuations in the data to
identify trends
Simple Moving Average (SMA) = average of the prices in the series with equal weight for each closing price
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) = weighted average of the closing prices in the series with the most recent prices receiving more weight
MACD Construction
MACD Line (black)= 12-day EMA – 26-day EMA
Signal Line (red)= 9-day EMA of the MACD Line
MACD Histogram= MACD Line – Signal Line
Exponential Moving Averages
12 day• shorter moving average• “faster” - more reactive to price changes
26 day• longer moving average• “slower” – less reactive to price changes
9 day• Signal Line to identify turns in the trend
Convergence and DivergenceConvergence• moving averages move towards each other
Crossover• moving averages intersect and move from converging to
diverging or diverging to converging
Divergence• moving averages move away from each other
DivergenceDivergence• security price diverges from the MACD• signals the end of the current trend
Crossover Signal• MACD intersects with the signal line
• Bearish Signal – MACD falls below Signal Line• Bullish Signal – MACD rises above Signal Line
MACD Signals: 2007-2012
MACD Decision RuleYes No
1. Prices and MACD make new highs then reverse X
2. Price and MACD decline X(MACD crosses below Signal Line)
3. Price trends up again to new high X
4. MACD trends up again but no new high X(MACD crosses above Signal Line)
5. Price and MACD both decline again X(MACD crosses below Signal Line)
PREDICTION: TREND OF LOWER PRICES BEGINS
Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate July 7, 2007 October 12, 2007Duration 12 weeksDJIA Value 13,851.08 14,093.08 242 1.75%
Peak B Trough Change PercentDate October 12, 2007 March 6, 2009Duration 73 weeksDJIA Value 14,093.08 6,469.95 -7,623.13 -54.09%
First Signal: October 12, 2007
Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate July 7, 2007 October 12, 2007Duration 12 weeksMACD Value 378.83 260.42 -118.41 -31.26%
1.Prices and MACD make new highs
New High
New High
2.Prices and MACD decline
Prices Decline
MACD crosses below Signal Line
3.Price reverses to new high
Reversal to new high
4. MACD reverses, no new high
MACD crosses above Signal Line but no new high
5. Price and MACD trend lower
MACD declines and crosses below Signal Line
Price declines
MACD Decision RuleYes No
1. Prices and MACD make new highs then reverse X
2. Price and MACD decline X(MACD crosses below Signal Line)
3. Price trends up again to new high X
4. MACD trends up again but no new high X(MACD crosses above Signal Line)
5. Price and MACD both decline again X(MACD crosses below Signal Line)
Prediction – Lower Prices Peak B Trough Change PercentDate October 12, 2007 March 6, 2009Duration 73 weeksDJIA Value 14,093.08 6,469.95 -7,623.13 -54.09%
Second Signal: April 30, 2010 Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate January 22, 2010 April 30, 2010Duration 14 weeksDJIA Value 10,172.92 11,008.61 835.69 8.21%
Peak B Trough Change PercentDate April 30, 2010 July 2, 2010Duration 9 weeksDJIA Value 11,008.61 9,614.32 -1,394.29 -12.67%
Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate January 22, 2010 April 30, 2010Duration 14 weeksMACD Value 357.39 326.99 -30.4 -8.51%
Third Signal: May 6, 2011
Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate February 18, 2011 May 6, 2011Duration 11 weeksDJIA Value 12,391.30 12,638.74 247.44 2.00%
Peak B Trough Change PercentDate May 6, 2011 October 7, 2011Duration 22 weeksDJIA Value 12,638.74 10,404.49 -2,234.25 - 17.68%
Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate February 18, 2011 May 6, 2011 Duration 11 weeksMACD Value 399.02 370.39 -28.63 -7.18%
Fourth Signal: October 5, 2012 Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate May 4, 2012 October 5, 2012Duration 22 weeksDJIA Value 13,038.27 13,610.15 571.88 4.39%
Peak B Trough Change PercentDate October 5, 2012 November 16, 2012Duration 6 weeksDJIA Value 13,610.15 12,471.49 -1,138.66 - 8.37%
Peak A Peak B Change PercentDate May 4, 2012 October 5, 2012Duration 22 weeksMACD Value 281.70 232.15 -49.55 -17.59%
Signal Performance Summary
Divergence Signal Decline
Signal DJIA Change DJIA % MACD Change MACD % DJIA Change DJIA % Weeks
12-Oct-07 242.00 1.75% -118.41 -31.26% -7,623.13 -54.09% 73
30-Apr-10 835.16 8.21% -30.40 -8.51% -1,394.29 -12.17% 9
6-May-11 247.44 2.00% -28.63 -7.18% -2,234.25 -17.68% 22
5-Oct-12 571.88 4.39% -49.55 -17.59% -1,138.66 -8.37% 6
-12,390.33 -92.31%
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