Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

1st Q ’07 -2.2 -2.92nd Q ’07 -2.4 -5.3

1st H ’07 -2.4 -4.3

July ’07 +1.5 -1.2Y-T-D -1.9 -3.9

TVB Estimates GTSS

Spot TV % Change Base Total

Automotive -8.4Retail -2.7Telecommunications 8.2Restaurants 0.4Government & Organizations -22.5Insurance & Real Estate -10.6Media & Advertising 8.6Financial -7.8Travel, Hotels & Resorts 9.2Schools, Camps, Seminars -3.5

1st Half 2007 Category Analysis

Source: TNS Media Intelligence

% ChangeTop 10 Spot Categories 2007/2006

Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2007

Chrysler-Cerberus 765,905 757,118 1.2Ford 1,280,059 1,370,501 -6.6General Motors 1,417,699 1,779,371 -20.3

Subtotal Big 3 3,463,664 3,906,992 -11.3

BMW 124,421 108,129 15.1Daimler 124,340 151,978 -18.2Honda 548,827 529,324 3.7Hyundai/KIA 461,723 569,389 -18.9Isuzu 1,401 2,629 -46.7Mazda 178,661 177,846 0.5Mitsubishi 104,224 60,231 73.0Nissan 563,851 525,486 7.3Toyota 1,023,629 1,138,196 -10.1Volkswagen 154,900 209,232 -26.0

Subtotal All Other 3,285,980 3,472,444 -5.4

Grand Total 6,749,644 7,379,436 -8.5

Overall $ Overall $ %

Parent Co. 1st H 2007 1st H 2006 Ch.

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2007

Chrysler-Cerberus 226,753 248,269 -8.7Ford 301,695 377,240 -20.0General Motors 339,908 416,872 -18.5

Subtotal Big 3 868,357 1,042,382 -16.7

BMW 32,773 27,400 19.6Daimler 37,983 46,159 -17.7Honda 209,035 210,022 -0.5Hyundai/KIA 103,832 126,847 -18.1Isuzu 347 310 11.9Mazda 44,084 45,639 -3.4Mitsubishi 54,071 19,978 170.7Nissan 172,453 148,324 16.3Toyota 341,662 369,652 -7.6Volkswagen 38,790 41,863 -7.3

Subtotal All Other 1,035,032 1,036,197 -0.1

Grand Total 1,903,390 2,078,579 -8.4

1st H 2007 1st H 2006Spot TV $ Spot TV $ %

Parent Co. ($000) ($000) Ch.

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2007

Chrysler-Cerberus 29.6 32.8Ford 23.6 27.5General Motors 24.0 23.4

Subtotal Big 3 25.1 26.7

BMW 26.3 25.3Daimler 30.5 30.4Honda 38.1 39.7Hyundai/KIA 22.5 22.3Isuzu 24.7 11.8Mazda 24.7 25.7Mitsubishi 51.9 33.2Nissan 30.6 28.2Toyota 33.4 32.5Volkswagen 25.0 20.0

Subtotal All Other 31.5 29.8

Grand Total 28.2 28.2

1st H 2007 1st H 2006Parent Co. Spot TV Spot TV

% Share % Share

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Automotive Spot TV Share

2001 29.02002 30.42003 28.62004 28.62005 27.22006 31.1

Q1 2007 28.1 Q2 2007 28.3

AutomotiveAd Spending for Spot TV

Year of Share

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Base Business Analysis

Year % Change

2000 8.72001 -15.62002 8.72003 0.62004 4.62005 -1.52006 2.2Thru July 2007 -1.9

2006/2007 Political Analysis

1st Half 506 41 -465 -91.9%

2nd Half 1,594 659 -935 -58.7%

Total 2,100 700 -1,400 -66.7%

Source: CMAG

Dollars (M) 2006 2007 $ Change % Change

Now The Year Ahead

What Can We Expect?

Here’s What the Financial Broadcast Analysts

Are Saying About 2008

8 Financial Firms Participated

Bear StearnsBMO Capital MarketsGabelliJP MorganMerrill LynchThomas WeiselVogel CapitalWachovia Securities

Bear Stearns

Local Spot 2.5 Nat’l Spot 15.0Network 4.0Syndication 1.0Network Cable 6.5Local Cable 3.0Brdcst Online 40.0

2008(% Change)

BMO Capital Markets

Local Spot 1.0 -1.0Nat’l Spot 11.0 -11.0Network 4.0 2.0Syndication -1.0 -3.0Network Cable 4.0 2.0Local Cable 2.0 -1.0Brdcst Online 5.0 8.0

(% Change)2008 2009

Gabelli & Company

Local Spot 3.0 3.0Nat’l Spot 10.0 -2.0Network 4.0 2.0Syndication 4.0 4.0Network Cable 4.0 4.0Local Cable 5.0 5.0Brdcst Online 15.0 12.5

2008 2009(% Change)

JPMorgan Chase

Local Spot 6.0 -2.0Nat’l Spot 8.0 -6.0Network 2.0 2.0Syndication 1.0 1.0Network Cable 5.0 5.0Local Cable 4.0 4.0Brdcst Online 35.0 28.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Merrill Lynch

Local Spot 7.0 -3.5Nat’l Spot 22.5 -11.25Network 4.0 0.0Syndication 5.0 2.0Network Cable 5.0 5.0Local Cable 5.0 5.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Thomas Weisel Partners

Local Spot -1.0 -1.0Nat’l Spot 7.0 -9.0Network 3.0 -5.0Syndication 1.0 0.0Network Cable 7.0 7.0Local Cable 8.0 8.0Brdcst Online 35.0 30.0Brdcst Wireless 40.0 30.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Vogel Capital

Local Spot 4.0 -3.0Nat’l Spot 10.0 -1.0Network 3.0 -2.0Syndication 2.0 -2.0Network Cable 4.0 0.0Local Cable 4.0 1.0Brdcst Online 8.0 5.0Brdcst Wireless 9.0 5.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Wachovia Securities

Local Spot 4.0 -3.0Nat’l Spot 14.0 -8.0Network 4.0 3.0Syndication 2.0 1.0Network Cable 3.0 3.0Local Cable 4.0 4.0Brdcst Online 50.0 50.0Brdcst Wireless 25.0 25.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Local Spot 3.3Nat’l Spot 12.2Network 3.5Syndication 1.9Network Cable 4.8Local Cable 4.4Brdcst Online 26.9Brdcst Wireless 24.7

Summary of the 2008 Financial Forecasts

(2008% Change)

Wall Street Estimates 2008 – Local Spot

-2-1012345678

Local Spot Ranges% Change

Wall Street Estimates 2008 – Nat’l Spot

0

5

10

15

20

25

National Spot Ranges% Change

Local Spot 3.3 -1.5Nat’l Spot 12.2 -6.9Network 3.5 0.3Syndication 1.9 0.4Network Cable 4.8 3.7Local Cable 4.4 3.7Brdcst Online 26.9 22.3Brdcst Wireless 24.7 20.0

Summary of the Financial Forecasts

2008 2009(% Change)

Now What the Other Experts are Predicting

for 2008 & 2009

Universal McCann

Local Spot 5.5 3.0Nat’l Spot 9.0 -2.0Network 6.5 1.0Syndication 3.0 2.0Network Cable 6.0 3.5Local Cable 10.0 4.0Brdcst Online 12.0 9.0Brdcst Wireless 200.0 150.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Veronis Suhler Stevenson

Local Spot 5.5 -4.5Nat’l Spot 9.4 -5.0Network 7.7 -3.4Syndication 4.7 2.8Network Cable 6.8 3.5Spot Cable 10.6 5.5Brdcst Online 35.0 24.7Brdcst Wireless 111.4 72.2

2008 2009(% Change)

Jack Myers

Total Spot 13.5 -9.5Network 3.0 -1.0Syndication 2.0 1.0Network Cable 5.0 3.0Local Cable 7.0 2.0Brdcst Online 35.0 75.0Brdcst Wireless 40.0 120.0

2008 2009(% Change)

BIA Financial

Total Spot 9.9 -1.6

2008 2009(% Change)

Total Spot 9.4 -3.7Network 5.7 -1.1Syndication 3.2 1.9Network Cable 5.9 3.3Local Cable 9.2 3.8Brdcst Online 27.3 36.2Brdcst Wireless 117.1 114.1

Summary of Other IndustryExperts’ Forecasts

2008 2009(% Change)

TV Rep Surveyfor 2008-2009

National Spot 14.9 -8.8

National Online 69.4 40.6

National Wireless 50.0 62.5

11 Participants

TV Rep Survey

2008 2009(% Change)

2008 Rep Survey

Mean14.9%

0

5

10

15

20

25

% Change

And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2008 & 2009

Market Drivers – 2008

Presidential year Political Cycle…with no incumbent.The consumer economy…credit crunch impacts…housing, discretionary spendingAuto sales…truck market shares…passenger cars“New media” momentum…beyond the early adapters…more scrutinyPressure on business practices and processesOlympics

TVB Forecast 2008

Local Spot +5.0 to + 6.0Nat’l Spot +14.0 to + 16.0Total Spot +9.0 to + 10.0Station Website +40.0 to + 50.0Station Wireless +50.0 to + 75.0

Network +4.0 to + 6.0Syndication +3.0 to + 4.0Network Cable +5.0 to + 7.0Local Cable +5.0 to + 7.0

(% Change)

Borrell Projection – Total Local Online

Source: © 2007, Borrell Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.

Local Online Ad Revenue Trends 2007 - 2010

$ in Millions

$4,810

$5,857

$243 $466$1,170 $1,398

$1,650$2,078

$2,687

$7,713

$8,896$9,500 $9,308

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

Mill

ions

Local E-Mail Ads

Local Paid Search

Local Banners/Listings

Local E-Mail Ads $151 $233 $291 $454 $691

Local Paid Search $420 $938 $1,837 $2,914 $3,657 $4,073

Local Banners/Listings $243 $466 $1,170 $1,398 $1,650 $2,078 $2,687 $4,390 $4,768 $5,643 $5,691 $5,389 $4,544

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f

Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online

L oc al B roadc as t T V Web R evenues ($ in millions )

$75.0 $119.0$283.2

$446.6

$686.6

$978.8

$1,309.6

$1,592.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Borrell Associates

(% Change)

TVB Forecast 2009

Local Spot +1.0 to +3.0

Nat’l Spot -10.0 to -8.0

Total Spot -4.0 to -2.0

Station Website +35.0 to +45.0

Station Wireless +50.0 to +75.0

Network -1.0 to +1.0

Syndication 0.0 to +2.0

Network Cable +1.0 to +3.0

Local Cable +1.0 to +3.0

Base Business Comparison

2004 4.6% $1,600 10.1%2005 -1.5% 560 -5.5%2006 2.2% 2,100 8.5%2007(e) 0.3% 700 -5.0%2008(e) 2.0% 2,635 9.5%

TotalBase POL $ (Base + Political)

Source: CMAG

(% Change)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

2002 +11.9

2003 -2.4

2004 +10.1

2005 -5.5

2006 +8.5

2007* -5.0

2008* +9.5

2009* -3.0

Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.

+0.5

+5.8

+2.8

+5.1

Total Spot TV: 2 Year Increments

* TVB Estimate. Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys

* TVB Estimate.

(% Change)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

Index of the Growth of Spot TV

In 24 Month Cycles(‘94-’95 = 100)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

126.5133.9

137.6144.7

'02-'03 '04-'05 '06-'07 '08-'09

Thank You for Joining Us Today.

Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations