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Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

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Page 1: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis
Page 2: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

1st Q ’07 -2.2 -2.92nd Q ’07 -2.4 -5.3

1st H ’07 -2.4 -4.3

July ’07 +1.5 -1.2Y-T-D -1.9 -3.9

TVB Estimates GTSS

Spot TV % Change Base Total

Page 3: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Automotive -8.4Retail -2.7Telecommunications 8.2Restaurants 0.4Government & Organizations -22.5Insurance & Real Estate -10.6Media & Advertising 8.6Financial -7.8Travel, Hotels & Resorts 9.2Schools, Camps, Seminars -3.5

1st Half 2007 Category Analysis

Source: TNS Media Intelligence

% ChangeTop 10 Spot Categories 2007/2006

Page 4: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2007

Chrysler-Cerberus 765,905 757,118 1.2Ford 1,280,059 1,370,501 -6.6General Motors 1,417,699 1,779,371 -20.3

Subtotal Big 3 3,463,664 3,906,992 -11.3

BMW 124,421 108,129 15.1Daimler 124,340 151,978 -18.2Honda 548,827 529,324 3.7Hyundai/KIA 461,723 569,389 -18.9Isuzu 1,401 2,629 -46.7Mazda 178,661 177,846 0.5Mitsubishi 104,224 60,231 73.0Nissan 563,851 525,486 7.3Toyota 1,023,629 1,138,196 -10.1Volkswagen 154,900 209,232 -26.0

Subtotal All Other 3,285,980 3,472,444 -5.4

Grand Total 6,749,644 7,379,436 -8.5

Overall $ Overall $ %

Parent Co. 1st H 2007 1st H 2006 Ch.

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Page 5: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2007

Chrysler-Cerberus 226,753 248,269 -8.7Ford 301,695 377,240 -20.0General Motors 339,908 416,872 -18.5

Subtotal Big 3 868,357 1,042,382 -16.7

BMW 32,773 27,400 19.6Daimler 37,983 46,159 -17.7Honda 209,035 210,022 -0.5Hyundai/KIA 103,832 126,847 -18.1Isuzu 347 310 11.9Mazda 44,084 45,639 -3.4Mitsubishi 54,071 19,978 170.7Nissan 172,453 148,324 16.3Toyota 341,662 369,652 -7.6Volkswagen 38,790 41,863 -7.3

Subtotal All Other 1,035,032 1,036,197 -0.1

Grand Total 1,903,390 2,078,579 -8.4

1st H 2007 1st H 2006Spot TV $ Spot TV $ %

Parent Co. ($000) ($000) Ch.

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Page 6: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2007

Chrysler-Cerberus 29.6 32.8Ford 23.6 27.5General Motors 24.0 23.4

Subtotal Big 3 25.1 26.7

BMW 26.3 25.3Daimler 30.5 30.4Honda 38.1 39.7Hyundai/KIA 22.5 22.3Isuzu 24.7 11.8Mazda 24.7 25.7Mitsubishi 51.9 33.2Nissan 30.6 28.2Toyota 33.4 32.5Volkswagen 25.0 20.0

Subtotal All Other 31.5 29.8

Grand Total 28.2 28.2

1st H 2007 1st H 2006Parent Co. Spot TV Spot TV

% Share % Share

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Page 7: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Automotive Spot TV Share

2001 29.02002 30.42003 28.62004 28.62005 27.22006 31.1

Q1 2007 28.1 Q2 2007 28.3

AutomotiveAd Spending for Spot TV

Year of Share

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 8/27/07. Preliminary

Page 8: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Base Business Analysis

Year % Change

2000 8.72001 -15.62002 8.72003 0.62004 4.62005 -1.52006 2.2Thru July 2007 -1.9

Page 9: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

2006/2007 Political Analysis

1st Half 506 41 -465 -91.9%

2nd Half 1,594 659 -935 -58.7%

Total 2,100 700 -1,400 -66.7%

Source: CMAG

Dollars (M) 2006 2007 $ Change % Change

Page 10: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Now The Year Ahead

What Can We Expect?

Page 11: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Here’s What the Financial Broadcast Analysts

Are Saying About 2008

Page 12: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

8 Financial Firms Participated

Bear StearnsBMO Capital MarketsGabelliJP MorganMerrill LynchThomas WeiselVogel CapitalWachovia Securities

Page 13: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Bear Stearns

Local Spot 2.5 Nat’l Spot 15.0Network 4.0Syndication 1.0Network Cable 6.5Local Cable 3.0Brdcst Online 40.0

2008(% Change)

Page 14: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

BMO Capital Markets

Local Spot 1.0 -1.0Nat’l Spot 11.0 -11.0Network 4.0 2.0Syndication -1.0 -3.0Network Cable 4.0 2.0Local Cable 2.0 -1.0Brdcst Online 5.0 8.0

(% Change)2008 2009

Page 15: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Gabelli & Company

Local Spot 3.0 3.0Nat’l Spot 10.0 -2.0Network 4.0 2.0Syndication 4.0 4.0Network Cable 4.0 4.0Local Cable 5.0 5.0Brdcst Online 15.0 12.5

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 16: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

JPMorgan Chase

Local Spot 6.0 -2.0Nat’l Spot 8.0 -6.0Network 2.0 2.0Syndication 1.0 1.0Network Cable 5.0 5.0Local Cable 4.0 4.0Brdcst Online 35.0 28.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 17: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Merrill Lynch

Local Spot 7.0 -3.5Nat’l Spot 22.5 -11.25Network 4.0 0.0Syndication 5.0 2.0Network Cable 5.0 5.0Local Cable 5.0 5.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 18: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Thomas Weisel Partners

Local Spot -1.0 -1.0Nat’l Spot 7.0 -9.0Network 3.0 -5.0Syndication 1.0 0.0Network Cable 7.0 7.0Local Cable 8.0 8.0Brdcst Online 35.0 30.0Brdcst Wireless 40.0 30.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 19: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Vogel Capital

Local Spot 4.0 -3.0Nat’l Spot 10.0 -1.0Network 3.0 -2.0Syndication 2.0 -2.0Network Cable 4.0 0.0Local Cable 4.0 1.0Brdcst Online 8.0 5.0Brdcst Wireless 9.0 5.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 20: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Wachovia Securities

Local Spot 4.0 -3.0Nat’l Spot 14.0 -8.0Network 4.0 3.0Syndication 2.0 1.0Network Cable 3.0 3.0Local Cable 4.0 4.0Brdcst Online 50.0 50.0Brdcst Wireless 25.0 25.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 21: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Local Spot 3.3Nat’l Spot 12.2Network 3.5Syndication 1.9Network Cable 4.8Local Cable 4.4Brdcst Online 26.9Brdcst Wireless 24.7

Summary of the 2008 Financial Forecasts

(2008% Change)

Page 22: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Wall Street Estimates 2008 – Local Spot

-2-1012345678

Local Spot Ranges% Change

Page 23: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Wall Street Estimates 2008 – Nat’l Spot

0

5

10

15

20

25

National Spot Ranges% Change

Page 24: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Local Spot 3.3 -1.5Nat’l Spot 12.2 -6.9Network 3.5 0.3Syndication 1.9 0.4Network Cable 4.8 3.7Local Cable 4.4 3.7Brdcst Online 26.9 22.3Brdcst Wireless 24.7 20.0

Summary of the Financial Forecasts

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 25: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Now What the Other Experts are Predicting

for 2008 & 2009

Page 26: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Universal McCann

Local Spot 5.5 3.0Nat’l Spot 9.0 -2.0Network 6.5 1.0Syndication 3.0 2.0Network Cable 6.0 3.5Local Cable 10.0 4.0Brdcst Online 12.0 9.0Brdcst Wireless 200.0 150.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 27: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Veronis Suhler Stevenson

Local Spot 5.5 -4.5Nat’l Spot 9.4 -5.0Network 7.7 -3.4Syndication 4.7 2.8Network Cable 6.8 3.5Spot Cable 10.6 5.5Brdcst Online 35.0 24.7Brdcst Wireless 111.4 72.2

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 28: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Jack Myers

Total Spot 13.5 -9.5Network 3.0 -1.0Syndication 2.0 1.0Network Cable 5.0 3.0Local Cable 7.0 2.0Brdcst Online 35.0 75.0Brdcst Wireless 40.0 120.0

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 29: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

BIA Financial

Total Spot 9.9 -1.6

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 30: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Total Spot 9.4 -3.7Network 5.7 -1.1Syndication 3.2 1.9Network Cable 5.9 3.3Local Cable 9.2 3.8Brdcst Online 27.3 36.2Brdcst Wireless 117.1 114.1

Summary of Other IndustryExperts’ Forecasts

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 31: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

TV Rep Surveyfor 2008-2009

Page 32: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

National Spot 14.9 -8.8

National Online 69.4 40.6

National Wireless 50.0 62.5

11 Participants

TV Rep Survey

2008 2009(% Change)

Page 33: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

2008 Rep Survey

Mean14.9%

0

5

10

15

20

25

% Change

Page 34: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2008 & 2009

Page 35: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Market Drivers – 2008

Presidential year Political Cycle…with no incumbent.The consumer economy…credit crunch impacts…housing, discretionary spendingAuto sales…truck market shares…passenger cars“New media” momentum…beyond the early adapters…more scrutinyPressure on business practices and processesOlympics

Page 36: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

TVB Forecast 2008

Local Spot +5.0 to + 6.0Nat’l Spot +14.0 to + 16.0Total Spot +9.0 to + 10.0Station Website +40.0 to + 50.0Station Wireless +50.0 to + 75.0

Network +4.0 to + 6.0Syndication +3.0 to + 4.0Network Cable +5.0 to + 7.0Local Cable +5.0 to + 7.0

(% Change)

Page 37: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Borrell Projection – Total Local Online

Source: © 2007, Borrell Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.

Local Online Ad Revenue Trends 2007 - 2010

$ in Millions

$4,810

$5,857

$243 $466$1,170 $1,398

$1,650$2,078

$2,687

$7,713

$8,896$9,500 $9,308

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

Mill

ions

Local E-Mail Ads

Local Paid Search

Local Banners/Listings

Local E-Mail Ads $151 $233 $291 $454 $691

Local Paid Search $420 $938 $1,837 $2,914 $3,657 $4,073

Local Banners/Listings $243 $466 $1,170 $1,398 $1,650 $2,078 $2,687 $4,390 $4,768 $5,643 $5,691 $5,389 $4,544

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f

Page 38: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online

L oc al B roadc as t T V Web R evenues ($ in millions )

$75.0 $119.0$283.2

$446.6

$686.6

$978.8

$1,309.6

$1,592.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Borrell Associates

Page 39: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

(% Change)

TVB Forecast 2009

Local Spot +1.0 to +3.0

Nat’l Spot -10.0 to -8.0

Total Spot -4.0 to -2.0

Station Website +35.0 to +45.0

Station Wireless +50.0 to +75.0

Network -1.0 to +1.0

Syndication 0.0 to +2.0

Network Cable +1.0 to +3.0

Local Cable +1.0 to +3.0

Page 40: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Base Business Comparison

2004 4.6% $1,600 10.1%2005 -1.5% 560 -5.5%2006 2.2% 2,100 8.5%2007(e) 0.3% 700 -5.0%2008(e) 2.0% 2,635 9.5%

TotalBase POL $ (Base + Political)

Source: CMAG

(% Change)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

Page 41: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

2002 +11.9

2003 -2.4

2004 +10.1

2005 -5.5

2006 +8.5

2007* -5.0

2008* +9.5

2009* -3.0

Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.

+0.5

+5.8

+2.8

+5.1

Total Spot TV: 2 Year Increments

* TVB Estimate. Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys

* TVB Estimate.

(% Change)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

Page 42: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

Index of the Growth of Spot TV

In 24 Month Cycles(‘94-’95 = 100)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

126.5133.9

137.6144.7

'02-'03 '04-'05 '06-'07 '08-'09

Page 43: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis

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Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations

Page 44: Y-T-D 2007 Spot Revenue Analysis