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7/30/2019 WunderlichSecuritiesInc_InitiatingCoverageWithaBuy-DominantBargeOperatorEngineServiceNiche_2012_5_17
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Diversified Industrials: Transportatio
Initiating CoveragKIRBY CORPORATION (KEX: $61.04) Rating: BuMay 17, 2012 Price Target: $77.
Market Data
12-18 Month Price Target $77.0052-Week Range $70.61 - $47.23ADTV - 90Day (000s) 418.1Market Cap ($MM) $3,410.6Shares Out (MM) 55.7Public Market Float (MM) 50.1Dividend NA
EPS ($)
FY DEC 2011 2012 2013
Actual Previous Current Previous Current
Q1 $0.60A $0.99A
Q2 $0.77A $1.02E
Q3 $0.94A $1.05E
Q4 $1.02A $1.03E YEAR $3.35A $4.08E $4.50E
Valuation Ratio
FY11 FY12 FY13
P/E 18.2x 15.0x 13.6x
EV/EBITDA 11.0x 8.5x 7.1x
Financial Data
FY11 FY12 FY13
Revenue $1,850.4A $2,297.2E $2,425.7E
Operating Margin 17.15%A 17.17%E 17.79%E
EBITDA $381.8A $494.7E $594.2E
FCF(Mil) $(776.7)A $119.3E $209.4E
Debt/Capital 35.5%A 28.7%E 20.4%E
ROE 14.2%A 14.7%E 14.1%E
ROIC 10.9%A 10.6%E 11.2%E
CapEx $214.4A $266.5E $230.4E
Balance Sheet
FY11 FY12 FY13
Cash $16.2A $10.6E $40.0E
Accounts Receivable $335.1A $385.1E $420.1E
Current Assets $529.3A $563.7E $618.1E
PPE $1,822.2A $1,936.7E $2,004.5E
Goodwill $483.5A $483.5E $483.5E
Total Assets $2,960.4A $3,109.2E $3,231.5E
Accounts Payable $163.0A $183.0E $203.0E
Current Liabilities $358.8A $378.8E $400.8E
Total Debt $802.0A $677.0E $497.0E
Total Liabilities $1,506.3A $1,424.2E $1,290.5E
Total SOE and Liab. $2,960.4A $3,109.2E $3,231.5E
Company Description
Kirby Corp. is the largest domestic tank barge operatortransporting bulk liquids along the inland waterwaysystem, all three U.S. coasts, and Alaska and Hawaii. TheDiesel Engine Services (DES) segment provides after-market parts and service for medium- and high-speeddiesel engines. DES manufacturers and remanufacturesoilfield service equipment, including hydraulic fracturingequipment.
Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 cgjones@wundernet.com
Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 nbender@wundernet.com
Wunderlich Securities,
6000 Poplar Avenue, Suite
Memphis, TN 38
Initiating Coverage With a Buy - Dominant BargeOperator, Engine Service NicheSummary
We are initiating coverage on Kirby Corporation (KEX) with a Buy rating a$77 price target. Earnings remain poised to benefit from strong utilization apricing trends in its core inland tank barge segment; solid secular trends in boits barging and engine service segments (related to oil and gas shale formationand additional acquisitions on both the marine and engine service sides.
Key Pointss Solid inland tank barge fundamentals. KEX is experiencing high fle
utilization and favorable term and spot pricing. Sustained low natural gas pric
have led to a more globally competitive U.S. petrochemical industry whdriving higher production levels and export activity. KEXs black oil fleetexperiencing strong demand, primarily derived by stable refinery output athe movement of domestic crude oil from the Midwest and South Texas. Amodest recovery in housing will also drive additional volume and further tightcapacity.
s Industry consolidator. Kirbys strong management team has successfuintegrated over 40 acquisitions across its two divisions since the late 198KEX has used strong marine-related FCF to fund this market share growth. Wbelieve Kirbys material share, particularly on the marine side, and disciplinmanagement team has helped to create more stability in the inland tank barmarket. We expect Kirby will continue its accretive acquisition strategy to drigrowth in its inland and coastal marine operations, as well as engine services
s Concern about growth trajectory of United segment. Management has statthat the biggest wildcard to its $3.85-$4.05 EPS guidance is United's land-basbusiness and the consequences of the recent rotation from drilling for naturgas to crude oil. United has seen a pause in new order activity and is anticipatia decrease in overall demand for 2012. While this will lead to tougher earnincomparisons in 2H12, KEX believes this pause will help reposition the revenstream to a more service-oriented model (higher margin).
s Coastal segment has longer-term potential. Kirby re-entered the coastank barge market in 2011 with the purchase of K-Sea. Coastal's operatioprimarily move refined products with demand tied more closely to the overU.S. economic strength. KEX does expect Coastal will be profitable in 20(high single-digit operating margins). KEX remains focused on fine-tuniits operations, reducing costs, and seeking additional acquisitions. As 8% coastwise capacity exits the market by 2015 (S-H phase out), fundamentashould strengthen.
s Valuation. Our $77 price target is predicated on a 17.0x P/E multiple to ocalendar 2013 EPS estimate of $4.50. This compares to the stocks 10-yeaverage of 16.6x 12-month forward consensus expectations. We believe tshares warrant an in-line to slightly higher than historical multiple as sustainlow natural prices drive the U.S. petrochemical complex.
For Required Disclosures and Reg AC, please see page 3 of reportFINRA/SIPC
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Figure 1 - Kirby Corporation - Earnings Model 2010A-2013E ($ in Millions Except Per Share)
1QA 2 QA 3QA 4 QA 2 010 A 1QA 2 QA 3 QA 4 QA 20 11A 1QA 2 QE 3QE 4QE 20 12E 20 13
Operating Se gments:
Marine Revenue $ 219 .6 $ 23 0.3 $ 23 2. 8 $ 23 2.4 $ 915 .0 $ 24 1.7 $ 26 6.6 $ 35 1.2 $ 33 5. 1 $ 1,19 4.6 $ 33 6.0 $ 35 1. 1 $ 36 4.3 $ 35 4.9 $ 1,4 06 .3 $ 1,5 16
Year-Over-Yea r Change 0.2% 5.7% 2.3% 7.2% 3.8% 10.1% 15.8% 50.9% 44.2% 30.6% 39.0% 31.7% 3.7% 5.9% 17.7% 7.9
Marine Operating Income 42.3 49.7 51.4 49.4 192.8 52.7 58.4 78.1 74.3 263.4 70.9 75.8 79.4 76.6 302.8 333
Year-Over-Yea r Change - 8.5% - 6.6% - 10.8% - 5.3% - 7.8% 24.6% 17.5% 52.0% 50.4% 36.7% 34.5% 30.0% 1.7% 3.2% 14.9% 10.2
Marine Operating Margin 19.3% 21.6% 22.1% 21.2% 21.1% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2% 22.1% 21.1% 21.6% 21.8% 21.6% 21.5% 22.0
Year-Over-Yea r Point Chg. - 1.83 - 2.82 - 3.24 - 2.79 - 2.66 2.54 0.33 0.16 0.91 0.99 - 0.70 - 0.29 - 0.44 - 0.56 - 0.52 0.
Diesel Engine Services Revenue $ 48 .7 $ 43 .4 $ 48.5 $5 3.9 $ 19 4.5 $5 7.7 $ 17 0.7 $ 212 .4 $ 215 .0 $6 55 .8 $ 23 1.0 $2 26 .2 $ 218 .7 $ 215 .0 $ 891.0 $9 08
Year-Over-Yea r Change - 17.0% - 20.8% 8.6% 2 6.2% - 3.2% 18.5% 293.2% 337.6% 299.1% 237.2% 300.4% 32.5% 3.0% 0.0% 35.9% 2.0
Diesel Engine Services Oper. Inc. 5.0 4.1 4.5 6.9 20.6 6.6 17.6 21.2 26.4 71.8 27.8 27.1 25.8 26.4 107.2 113
Year-Over-Yea r Change - 0.9% - 44.8% - 3.2% 32.2% - 8.3% 31.0% 327.8% 370.7% 283.1% 249.4% 320.1% 54.1% 21.9% 0.2% 49.2% 6.0
Diesel Engine Services Oper. Margin 10.4% 9.5% 9.3% 12.8% 10.6% 11.5% 10.3% 10.0% 12.3% 10.9% 12.0% 12.0% 11.8% 12.3% 12.0% 12.5
Year-Over-Yea r Point Chg. 1.68 - 4.12 - 1.12 0.58 - 0.59 1.10 0.83 0.70 - 0.51 0.38 0.56 1.68 1.83 0.02 1.08 0.
Corporate Expenses 4.3 3.1 3.2 2.6 13.2 3.6 4.5 7.1 2.7 17.9 3.0 4.3 4.3 3.9 15.5 15
Year- Over- Year Change 47.6% 3.8% 1.5% - 18.6% 7.8% - 16.3% 45.3% 122.9% 4.2% 35.8% - 17.8% - 5.6% - 39.0% 44.3% - 13.7% 1.3
T ot al O pe ra tin g R eve nu e $ 2 68 . 3 $ 2 73 .7 $ 2 81. 3 $ 2 86 . 3 $ 1, 10 9 .6 $ 2 99 . 4 $ 4 37 .3 $ 5 63 .6 $ 5 50 . 1 $1, 8 50 .4 $ 5 66 .9 $ 5 77 .3 $ 5 83 .0 $ 5 69 .9 $ 2 ,2 9 7. 2 $ 2, 4 25
Year- Over- Year Change - 3.4% 0.3% 3.4% 10.3% 2.5% 11.6% 59.8% 100.3% 92.1% 66.8% 89.4% 32.0% 3.5% 3.6% 24.1% 5.6
T ot al O pe ra tin g Exp en se s $ 2 25 . 2 $ 2 23 .0 $ 2 28 . 6 $ 2 32 . 7 $ 9 09 .5 $ 2 43 . 7 $ 3 65 .9 $ 4 71. 3 $ 4 52 .3 $ 1, 5 33 . 1 $ 4 71. 3 $ 4 78 .6 $ 4 82 . 1 $ 4 70 .7 $ 1, 9 02 .7 $ 1, 9 94
Year- Over- Year Change - 1.7% 3.7% 7.7% 13.5% 5.6% 8.2% 64.0% 106.2% 94.4% 68.6% 93.4% 30.8% 2.3% 4.1% 24.1% 4.8
Tota l Ope rating Inc ome $ 43 .0 $ 50.6 $ 52 .7 $ 53. 7 $ 20 0.0 $5 5. 6 $ 71. 5 $9 2.3 $9 7. 9 $3 17.3 $9 5. 7 $9 8.7 $10 0.9 $9 9.2 $ 39 4.5 $4 31
Year- Over- Year Change - 11.6% - 12.3% - 11.9% - 1.6% - 9.4% 29.4% 41.2% 75.0% 82.4% 58.6% 71.9% 38.1% 9.3% 1.4% 24.3% 9.4
Opera ting Margin 16 .0% 18.5 % 18 .7 % 18 .7% 18 .0% 18 .6% 16 .3% 16. 4% 17 .8% 17 .1% 16. 9% 17 .1% 17. 3% 17. 4% 17.2 % 17. 8
Year- Over- Year Point Chg. - 1.48 - 2.66 - 3.25 - 2.26 - 2.37 2.55 - 2.16 - 2.37 - 0.95 - 0.88 -1.71 0.75 0.93 - 0.38 0.02 0
EBITDA $ 70 .6 $ 73 .1 $ 76 .8 $7 3.9 $ 29 4.3 $8 0.4 $9 9.2 $12 8.3 $7 3.9 $3 81.8 $8 0.4 $13 6.5 $13 9.2 $13 8.6 $ 49 4.7 $ 59 4
Year- Over- Year Change 0.0% -8.6% -9.2% 0.0% - 4.7% 14.0% 35.7% 67.1% 0.0% 29.7% 0.0% 37.6% 8.5% 87.6% 29.6% 20.
Interest Expense, net 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 11.0 2.8 3.3 6.0 5.8 17.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 22.6 18
Year- Over- Year Change - 5.2% - 3.4% - 1.1% 5.6% - 1.1% 6.2% 21.5% 117.2% 104.5% 63.3% 106.1% 75.0% - 7.0% - 6.0% 26.2% - 17.0
Other Income/Expense 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 -0.4 - 0.6 - 0.1 - 0.1 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 0
Pre - Ta x Income $ 40 .4 $4 8.0 $ 50.1 $ 51.2 $18 9.6 $5 2.9 $6 8.3 $8 6.3 $9 2.2 $ 29 9.7 $9 0.0 $9 3.0 $9 5.4 $9 3.7 $ 37 2.0 $4 12
Year- Over- Year Change - 12.1% - 12.8% - 12.5% - 1.6% - 9.8% 31.0% 42.4% 72.3% 80.1% 58.0% 70.2% 36.2% 10.5% 1.6% 24.1% 11.0
Income Tax Expense 15.4 18.3 19.2 19.3 72.3 20.0 26.1 32.7 35.1 113.8 34.0 35.3 36.2 35.6 141.2 156
Year- Over- Year Change - 11.5% - 12.8% - 12.0% - 1.0% - 9.4% 29.2% 42.2% 70.4% 82.0% 57.5% 70.3% 35.6% 10.7% 1.5% 24.0% 11.
Tax Rate 38.3% 38.2% 38.3% 37.7% 38.1% 37.8% 38.2% 37.9% 38.0% 38.0% 37.8% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 37.9% 38.0
Ne t Inc ome $ 24 .9 $2 9.6 $ 30 .9 $31.9 $ 117.4 $3 2.9 $4 2.2 $5 3.6 $ 57 .1 $18 5.9 $5 6.0 $5 7.6 $ 59 .1 $ 58 .1 $ 23 0.8 $ 25 6
Year- Over- Year Change - 12.5% - 12.8% - 12.8% - 2 .0% - 10.0% 32.1% 42.5% 73.4% 79.0% 58.3% 70.1% 36.5% 10.3% 1.7% 24.2% 10.9
Less Earnings from Non- Controlling Interest - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 1.1 - 0.5 - 0.5 - 0.9 - 0.6 - 2.5 - 0.9 - 0.8 - 0.8 - 0.7 - 3.2 -
Ne t Inc ome Attributa ble to KEX $ 24 .7 $ 29 .3 $ 30 .7 $ 31. 6 $ 116 .2 $ 32 .4 $ 41. 7 $ 52 .7 $ 56 .5 $ 18 3. 4 $ 55 .0 $ 56 .8 $ 58 .3 $ 57 .4 $ 22 7. 6 $ 25 3
EPS From Cont. Ops. $ 0.4 6 $0 .54 $0.57 $0 .5 9 $ 2 .15 $0 .6 0 $0 .7 7 $0 .94 $ 1.0 2 $3 .35 $0 .9 9 $ 1.02 $ 1.0 5 $ 1.03 $4 .08 $4 .5
Year- Over- Year Change - 11.4% - 13.9% -11.5% 0.4% - 10.2% 31.0% 41.3% 63.7% 71.5% 55.8% 63.8% 32.5% 11.2% 0.7% 21.9% 10.3
Shares Outstanding (FD) 53.5 53.7 53.4 53.2 53.5 53.4 53.4 55.4 55.5 54.4 55.6 55.7 55.8 55.9 55.8 56
GAAP EPS $ 0.4 6 $0 .54 $ 0.57 $0 .5 8 $ 2 .15 $0 .6 0 $0 .7 7 $0 .94 $ 1.0 0 $3 .33 $ 0.91 $ 1.02 $ 1.0 5 $ 1.03 $4 .08 $4 .5
Source: Company documents and Wunderlich Securities
Kirby Corporation May 17
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Disclosures:
Analyst Certification
I Chaz Jones, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject companies and their underlying securitI further certify that I have not and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this research report.
Valuation/Risks
s Valuation: In determining an appropriate valuation, we consider such factors as relative growth rates, operating margins, leverage ratios, cash flow, ROIC, market positihistorical multiple range, and economic/industry cycles.
s Risks: includes weather and river conditions, barge overcapacity, lock maintenance, federal regulations, accidents, fuel prices, and modal competition.
General disclosures:
Prices are as of the close of 05/16/12.
Ratings Distribution (in Percentages) & Investment Banking Disclosure Chart Information
Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Disclosure
Rating Count Ratings Distribution* Count Investment Banking**
Buy -rated 130 61.61 22 16.92
Hold -rated 72 34.12 7 9.72
Sell -rated 9 4.27 1 11.11
* Percentage of all Wunderlich-covered stocks assigned an equivalent Buy, Hold, or Sell rating.
** Percentage of companies within Wunderlich-rated Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for which Wunderlich or an associated firm provided investment banking services within the
past 12 months.
Rating System:
There are three rating categories within the Wunderlich Securities Investment Rating System: Buy, Hold, and Sell. The rating assigned to each company is based on tfollowing criteria.
Buy a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of greater than 20% over the next 12-18 months.
Hold - a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of plus or minus 5% over the next 12-18 months.
Sell a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a negative total return of greater than 10% over the next 12-18 months.
The analyst(s) who prepared this report may be compensated in part from a bonus pool that is partially funded by fees received by Wunderlich Securities for providin
investment banking services.
To request further information regarding the companies discussed in this report, readers may send an email to research@wundernet.com or may write to the WunderlSecurities Research Department, Wunderlich Securities, Inc., 400 E. Pratt Street, Suite 710, Baltimore, MD, 21202.
Other Disclosures
Wunderlich Securities, Inc. ("WSI") is a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of Financial Industry RegulatoAuthority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resid
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866.493.6588
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Houston, TX 77042888.385.6928
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Suite 150Memphis, TN 38119
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Director of Equity Capital MarketsJ. Jeffery Fowlds 303.965.7964 jfowlds@wundernet.com
Brooke Hrimnak 410.369.2609 bhrimnak@wundernet.com
Equity Research
Director of Research
Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 mehoffman@wundernet.com
Accounting and Tax Policy
Forensic Accounting
Mike Gyure, CPA 440.364.7473 mgyure@wundernet.com
Diversified Industrials
Environmental Services
Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 mehoffman@wundernet.comBrian J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 bbutler@wundernet.com
Diversified/IndustrialsBrent D. Rakers, CFA 901.251.2236 brakers@wundernet.com
Anjali R. Voria, CFA 901.251.2238 avoria@wundernet.com
TransportationBrian J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 bbutler@wundernet.com
Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 cgjones@wundernet.com
Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 nbender@wundernet.com
Energy
Alternative Energy
Theodore O'Neill 212.402.2054 toneill@wundernet.com
Exploration & ProductionIrene O. Haas 713.403.3980 ihaas@wundernet.com
Mostafa Dahhane, CFA 713.403.3986 mdahhane@wundernet.com
Oilfield Services/Exploration & ProductionJason Wangler 713.403.3985 jwangler@wundernet.com
Master Limited Partnerships
John R. Cusick 212.402.2057 jcusick@wundernet.com
Utilities/PowerJames L. Dobson 212.402.2059 jdobson@wundernet.com
Financial Services
Real Estate
Merrill Ross 703.307.9409 mross@wundernet.com
Regional BanksKevin Reynolds, CFA 901.251.2229 kreynolds@wundernet.com
Jeremy Lucas 901.251.1362 jlucas@wundernet.com
Healthcare
Medical DevicesGregory J. Simpson, CFA 314.719.3467 gsimpson@wundernet.com
Derek Winters 314.719.3468 dwinters@wundernet.com
Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT)
Cable/Satellite EntertainmentMatthew Harrigan 303.965.7966 mharrigan@wundernet.com
Communications & Networking Equipment
Matthew S. Robison 415.572.0936 mrobison@wundernet.com
Information Infrastructure
Brian S. Freed, CFA 901.251.1353 bfreed@wundernet.com
Jeffrey J. Andry 901.259.9432 jandry@wundernet.comSoftware-as-a-Service
Richard K. Baldry, CFA 410.369.2633 rbaldry@wundernet.com
Specialty Semiconductors and Components
William S. Harrison 410.369.2632 sharrison@wundernet.com
Blake T. Harper, CFA 410.369.2629 bharper@wundernet.com
Institutional Equity Sales
Director of Institutional SalesThomas S. Stephens 410.369.2602 tstephens@wundernet.com
Beth Adams 972.772.5066 badams@wundernet.com
Clifford Athey 410.369.2627 cathey@wundernet.com
Tim Ballard 901.259.9411 tballard@wundernet.com
Greg Brown 303.260.7902 gbrown@wundernet.com
Brett Chiles 901.259.9436 bchiles@wundernet.com
James Donovan 617.892.7222 jdonovan@wundernet.com
Paul Gillespie 901.259.9407 pgillespie@wundernet.com
Daniel Glading 410.369.2613 dglading@wundernet.com
Mike Grabenstein 410.369.2629 mgrabenstein@wundernet.com
Thomas Hadley 303.260.7905 thadley@wundernet.com
Haywood Henderson 901.259.9438 hhenderson@wundernet.comJohn Hohweiler 410.369.2610 jhohweiler@wundernet.com
Sam Levine 212.402.2067 slevine@wundernet.com
Mark McCulloh 410.369.2619 mmcculloh@wundernet.com
Ethel McGlynn 303.260.7904 ethel@wundernet.com
Kyle Norton 212.402.2060 knorton@wundernet.com
Kristi Papanikolaw 212.402.2058 kpapanikolaw@wundernet.com
Jean Potvin 212.402.2065 jpotvin@wundernet.com
Beth Rosenberry 312.368.0478 brosenberry@wundernet.com
Christina Rosso 212.402.2055 crosso@wundernet.com
Ned Sinnott 804.263.5240 nsinnott@wundernet.com
Institutional Equity Trading
Director of Institutional Equity Trading
Stephen C. Iskalis 303.260.7901 siskalis@wundernet.com
John Belgrade 888.257.4152 jbelgrade@wundernet.com
Chuck Berry 303.965.7961 cberry@wundernet.com
Erik Briggs 410.369.2611 ebriggs@wundernet.com
Trip Carey 617.892.7220 tcarey@wundernet.com
Jeffrey England 303.965.7960 jengland@wundernet.com
Daniel Muhly 410.369.2606 dmuhly@wundernet.com
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