WunderlichSecuritiesInc_InitiatingCoverageWithaBuy-DominantBargeOperatorEngineServiceNiche_2012_5_17

7/30/2019 WunderlichSecuritiesInc_InitiatingCoverageWithaBuy-DominantBargeOperatorEngineServiceNiche_2012_5_17

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Diversified Industrials: Transportatio

Initiating CoveragKIRBY CORPORATION (KEX: $61.04) Rating: BuMay 17, 2012 Price Target: $77.

Market Data

12-18 Month Price Target $77.0052-Week Range $70.61 - $47.23ADTV - 90Day (000s) 418.1Market Cap ($MM) $3,410.6Shares Out (MM) 55.7Public Market Float (MM) 50.1Dividend NA

EPS ($)

FY DEC 2011 2012 2013

Actual Previous Current Previous Current

Q1 $0.60A $0.99A

Q2 $0.77A $1.02E

Q3 $0.94A $1.05E

Q4 $1.02A $1.03E YEAR $3.35A $4.08E $4.50E

Valuation Ratio

FY11 FY12 FY13

P/E 18.2x 15.0x 13.6x

EV/EBITDA 11.0x 8.5x 7.1x

Financial Data

FY11 FY12 FY13

Revenue $1,850.4A $2,297.2E $2,425.7E

Operating Margin 17.15%A 17.17%E 17.79%E

EBITDA $381.8A $494.7E $594.2E

FCF(Mil) $(776.7)A $119.3E $209.4E

Debt/Capital 35.5%A 28.7%E 20.4%E

ROE 14.2%A 14.7%E 14.1%E

ROIC 10.9%A 10.6%E 11.2%E

CapEx $214.4A $266.5E $230.4E

Balance Sheet

FY11 FY12 FY13

Cash $16.2A $10.6E $40.0E

Accounts Receivable $335.1A $385.1E $420.1E

Current Assets $529.3A $563.7E $618.1E

PPE $1,822.2A $1,936.7E $2,004.5E

Goodwill $483.5A $483.5E $483.5E

Total Assets $2,960.4A $3,109.2E $3,231.5E

Accounts Payable $163.0A $183.0E $203.0E

Current Liabilities $358.8A $378.8E $400.8E

Total Debt $802.0A $677.0E $497.0E

Total Liabilities $1,506.3A $1,424.2E $1,290.5E

Total SOE and Liab. $2,960.4A $3,109.2E $3,231.5E

Company Description

Kirby Corp. is the largest domestic tank barge operatortransporting bulk liquids along the inland waterwaysystem, all three U.S. coasts, and Alaska and Hawaii. TheDiesel Engine Services (DES) segment provides after-market parts and service for medium- and high-speeddiesel engines. DES manufacturers and remanufacturesoilfield service equipment, including hydraulic fracturingequipment.

Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 [email protected]

Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 [email protected]

Wunderlich Securities,

6000 Poplar Avenue, Suite

Memphis, TN 38

Initiating Coverage With a Buy - Dominant BargeOperator, Engine Service NicheSummary

We are initiating coverage on Kirby Corporation (KEX) with a Buy rating a$77 price target. Earnings remain poised to benefit from strong utilization apricing trends in its core inland tank barge segment; solid secular trends in boits barging and engine service segments (related to oil and gas shale formationand additional acquisitions on both the marine and engine service sides.

Key Pointss Solid inland tank barge fundamentals. KEX is experiencing high fle

utilization and favorable term and spot pricing. Sustained low natural gas pric

have led to a more globally competitive U.S. petrochemical industry whdriving higher production levels and export activity. KEXs black oil fleetexperiencing strong demand, primarily derived by stable refinery output athe movement of domestic crude oil from the Midwest and South Texas. Amodest recovery in housing will also drive additional volume and further tightcapacity.

s Industry consolidator. Kirbys strong management team has successfuintegrated over 40 acquisitions across its two divisions since the late 198KEX has used strong marine-related FCF to fund this market share growth. Wbelieve Kirbys material share, particularly on the marine side, and disciplinmanagement team has helped to create more stability in the inland tank barmarket. We expect Kirby will continue its accretive acquisition strategy to drigrowth in its inland and coastal marine operations, as well as engine services

s Concern about growth trajectory of United segment. Management has statthat the biggest wildcard to its $3.85-$4.05 EPS guidance is United's land-basbusiness and the consequences of the recent rotation from drilling for naturgas to crude oil. United has seen a pause in new order activity and is anticipatia decrease in overall demand for 2012. While this will lead to tougher earnincomparisons in 2H12, KEX believes this pause will help reposition the revenstream to a more service-oriented model (higher margin).

s Coastal segment has longer-term potential. Kirby re-entered the coastank barge market in 2011 with the purchase of K-Sea. Coastal's operatioprimarily move refined products with demand tied more closely to the overU.S. economic strength. KEX does expect Coastal will be profitable in 20(high single-digit operating margins). KEX remains focused on fine-tuniits operations, reducing costs, and seeking additional acquisitions. As 8% coastwise capacity exits the market by 2015 (S-H phase out), fundamentashould strengthen.

s Valuation. Our $77 price target is predicated on a 17.0x P/E multiple to ocalendar 2013 EPS estimate of $4.50. This compares to the stocks 10-yeaverage of 16.6x 12-month forward consensus expectations. We believe tshares warrant an in-line to slightly higher than historical multiple as sustainlow natural prices drive the U.S. petrochemical complex.

For Required Disclosures and Reg AC, please see page 3 of reportFINRA/SIPC



Figure 1 - Kirby Corporation - Earnings Model 2010A-2013E ($ in Millions Except Per Share)

1QA 2 QA 3QA 4 QA 2 010 A 1QA 2 QA 3 QA 4 QA 20 11A 1QA 2 QE 3QE 4QE 20 12E 20 13

Operating Se gments:

Marine Revenue $ 219 .6 $ 23 0.3 $ 23 2. 8 $ 23 2.4 $ 915 .0 $ 24 1.7 $ 26 6.6 $ 35 1.2 $ 33 5. 1 $ 1,19 4.6 $ 33 6.0 $ 35 1. 1 $ 36 4.3 $ 35 4.9 $ 1,4 06 .3 $ 1,5 16

Year-Over-Yea r Change 0.2% 5.7% 2.3% 7.2% 3.8% 10.1% 15.8% 50.9% 44.2% 30.6% 39.0% 31.7% 3.7% 5.9% 17.7% 7.9

Marine Operating Income 42.3 49.7 51.4 49.4 192.8 52.7 58.4 78.1 74.3 263.4 70.9 75.8 79.4 76.6 302.8 333

Year-Over-Yea r Change - 8.5% - 6.6% - 10.8% - 5.3% - 7.8% 24.6% 17.5% 52.0% 50.4% 36.7% 34.5% 30.0% 1.7% 3.2% 14.9% 10.2

Marine Operating Margin 19.3% 21.6% 22.1% 21.2% 21.1% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2% 22.1% 21.1% 21.6% 21.8% 21.6% 21.5% 22.0

Year-Over-Yea r Point Chg. - 1.83 - 2.82 - 3.24 - 2.79 - 2.66 2.54 0.33 0.16 0.91 0.99 - 0.70 - 0.29 - 0.44 - 0.56 - 0.52 0.

Diesel Engine Services Revenue $ 48 .7 $ 43 .4 $ 48.5 $5 3.9 $ 19 4.5 $5 7.7 $ 17 0.7 $ 212 .4 $ 215 .0 $6 55 .8 $ 23 1.0 $2 26 .2 $ 218 .7 $ 215 .0 $ 891.0 $9 08

Year-Over-Yea r Change - 17.0% - 20.8% 8.6% 2 6.2% - 3.2% 18.5% 293.2% 337.6% 299.1% 237.2% 300.4% 32.5% 3.0% 0.0% 35.9% 2.0

Diesel Engine Services Oper. Inc. 5.0 4.1 4.5 6.9 20.6 6.6 17.6 21.2 26.4 71.8 27.8 27.1 25.8 26.4 107.2 113

Year-Over-Yea r Change - 0.9% - 44.8% - 3.2% 32.2% - 8.3% 31.0% 327.8% 370.7% 283.1% 249.4% 320.1% 54.1% 21.9% 0.2% 49.2% 6.0

Diesel Engine Services Oper. Margin 10.4% 9.5% 9.3% 12.8% 10.6% 11.5% 10.3% 10.0% 12.3% 10.9% 12.0% 12.0% 11.8% 12.3% 12.0% 12.5

Year-Over-Yea r Point Chg. 1.68 - 4.12 - 1.12 0.58 - 0.59 1.10 0.83 0.70 - 0.51 0.38 0.56 1.68 1.83 0.02 1.08 0.

Corporate Expenses 4.3 3.1 3.2 2.6 13.2 3.6 4.5 7.1 2.7 17.9 3.0 4.3 4.3 3.9 15.5 15

Year- Over- Year Change 47.6% 3.8% 1.5% - 18.6% 7.8% - 16.3% 45.3% 122.9% 4.2% 35.8% - 17.8% - 5.6% - 39.0% 44.3% - 13.7% 1.3

T ot al O pe ra tin g R eve nu e $ 2 68 . 3 $ 2 73 .7 $ 2 81. 3 $ 2 86 . 3 $ 1, 10 9 .6 $ 2 99 . 4 $ 4 37 .3 $ 5 63 .6 $ 5 50 . 1 $1, 8 50 .4 $ 5 66 .9 $ 5 77 .3 $ 5 83 .0 $ 5 69 .9 $ 2 ,2 9 7. 2 $ 2, 4 25

Year- Over- Year Change - 3.4% 0.3% 3.4% 10.3% 2.5% 11.6% 59.8% 100.3% 92.1% 66.8% 89.4% 32.0% 3.5% 3.6% 24.1% 5.6

T ot al O pe ra tin g Exp en se s $ 2 25 . 2 $ 2 23 .0 $ 2 28 . 6 $ 2 32 . 7 $ 9 09 .5 $ 2 43 . 7 $ 3 65 .9 $ 4 71. 3 $ 4 52 .3 $ 1, 5 33 . 1 $ 4 71. 3 $ 4 78 .6 $ 4 82 . 1 $ 4 70 .7 $ 1, 9 02 .7 $ 1, 9 94

Year- Over- Year Change - 1.7% 3.7% 7.7% 13.5% 5.6% 8.2% 64.0% 106.2% 94.4% 68.6% 93.4% 30.8% 2.3% 4.1% 24.1% 4.8

Tota l Ope rating Inc ome $ 43 .0 $ 50.6 $ 52 .7 $ 53. 7 $ 20 0.0 $5 5. 6 $ 71. 5 $9 2.3 $9 7. 9 $3 17.3 $9 5. 7 $9 8.7 $10 0.9 $9 9.2 $ 39 4.5 $4 31

Year- Over- Year Change - 11.6% - 12.3% - 11.9% - 1.6% - 9.4% 29.4% 41.2% 75.0% 82.4% 58.6% 71.9% 38.1% 9.3% 1.4% 24.3% 9.4

Opera ting Margin 16 .0% 18.5 % 18 .7 % 18 .7% 18 .0% 18 .6% 16 .3% 16. 4% 17 .8% 17 .1% 16. 9% 17 .1% 17. 3% 17. 4% 17.2 % 17. 8

Year- Over- Year Point Chg. - 1.48 - 2.66 - 3.25 - 2.26 - 2.37 2.55 - 2.16 - 2.37 - 0.95 - 0.88 -1.71 0.75 0.93 - 0.38 0.02 0

EBITDA $ 70 .6 $ 73 .1 $ 76 .8 $7 3.9 $ 29 4.3 $8 0.4 $9 9.2 $12 8.3 $7 3.9 $3 81.8 $8 0.4 $13 6.5 $13 9.2 $13 8.6 $ 49 4.7 $ 59 4

Year- Over- Year Change 0.0% -8.6% -9.2% 0.0% - 4.7% 14.0% 35.7% 67.1% 0.0% 29.7% 0.0% 37.6% 8.5% 87.6% 29.6% 20.

Interest Expense, net 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 11.0 2.8 3.3 6.0 5.8 17.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 22.6 18

Year- Over- Year Change - 5.2% - 3.4% - 1.1% 5.6% - 1.1% 6.2% 21.5% 117.2% 104.5% 63.3% 106.1% 75.0% - 7.0% - 6.0% 26.2% - 17.0

Other Income/Expense 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 -0.4 - 0.6 - 0.1 - 0.1 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.1 0

Pre - Ta x Income $ 40 .4 $4 8.0 $ 50.1 $ 51.2 $18 9.6 $5 2.9 $6 8.3 $8 6.3 $9 2.2 $ 29 9.7 $9 0.0 $9 3.0 $9 5.4 $9 3.7 $ 37 2.0 $4 12

Year- Over- Year Change - 12.1% - 12.8% - 12.5% - 1.6% - 9.8% 31.0% 42.4% 72.3% 80.1% 58.0% 70.2% 36.2% 10.5% 1.6% 24.1% 11.0

Income Tax Expense 15.4 18.3 19.2 19.3 72.3 20.0 26.1 32.7 35.1 113.8 34.0 35.3 36.2 35.6 141.2 156

Year- Over- Year Change - 11.5% - 12.8% - 12.0% - 1.0% - 9.4% 29.2% 42.2% 70.4% 82.0% 57.5% 70.3% 35.6% 10.7% 1.5% 24.0% 11.

Tax Rate 38.3% 38.2% 38.3% 37.7% 38.1% 37.8% 38.2% 37.9% 38.0% 38.0% 37.8% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 37.9% 38.0

Ne t Inc ome $ 24 .9 $2 9.6 $ 30 .9 $31.9 $ 117.4 $3 2.9 $4 2.2 $5 3.6 $ 57 .1 $18 5.9 $5 6.0 $5 7.6 $ 59 .1 $ 58 .1 $ 23 0.8 $ 25 6

Year- Over- Year Change - 12.5% - 12.8% - 12.8% - 2 .0% - 10.0% 32.1% 42.5% 73.4% 79.0% 58.3% 70.1% 36.5% 10.3% 1.7% 24.2% 10.9

Less Earnings from Non- Controlling Interest - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 1.1 - 0.5 - 0.5 - 0.9 - 0.6 - 2.5 - 0.9 - 0.8 - 0.8 - 0.7 - 3.2 -

Ne t Inc ome Attributa ble to KEX $ 24 .7 $ 29 .3 $ 30 .7 $ 31. 6 $ 116 .2 $ 32 .4 $ 41. 7 $ 52 .7 $ 56 .5 $ 18 3. 4 $ 55 .0 $ 56 .8 $ 58 .3 $ 57 .4 $ 22 7. 6 $ 25 3

EPS From Cont. Ops. $ 0.4 6 $0 .54 $0.57 $0 .5 9 $ 2 .15 $0 .6 0 $0 .7 7 $0 .94 $ 1.0 2 $3 .35 $0 .9 9 $ 1.02 $ 1.0 5 $ 1.03 $4 .08 $4 .5

Year- Over- Year Change - 11.4% - 13.9% -11.5% 0.4% - 10.2% 31.0% 41.3% 63.7% 71.5% 55.8% 63.8% 32.5% 11.2% 0.7% 21.9% 10.3

Shares Outstanding (FD) 53.5 53.7 53.4 53.2 53.5 53.4 53.4 55.4 55.5 54.4 55.6 55.7 55.8 55.9 55.8 56

GAAP EPS $ 0.4 6 $0 .54 $ 0.57 $0 .5 8 $ 2 .15 $0 .6 0 $0 .7 7 $0 .94 $ 1.0 0 $3 .33 $ 0.91 $ 1.02 $ 1.0 5 $ 1.03 $4 .08 $4 .5

Source: Company documents and Wunderlich Securities

Kirby Corporation May 17

2

Wunderlich SecuritieChaz Jones 901.251.2231 [email protected] Bender 901.251.2230 [email protected]



Disclosures:

Analyst Certification

I Chaz Jones, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject companies and their underlying securitI further certify that I have not and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this research report.

Valuation/Risks

s Valuation: In determining an appropriate valuation, we consider such factors as relative growth rates, operating margins, leverage ratios, cash flow, ROIC, market positihistorical multiple range, and economic/industry cycles.

s Risks: includes weather and river conditions, barge overcapacity, lock maintenance, federal regulations, accidents, fuel prices, and modal competition.

General disclosures:

Prices are as of the close of 05/16/12.

Ratings Distribution (in Percentages) & Investment Banking Disclosure Chart Information

Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Disclosure

Rating Count Ratings Distribution* Count Investment Banking**

Buy -rated 130 61.61 22 16.92

Hold -rated 72 34.12 7 9.72

Sell -rated 9 4.27 1 11.11

* Percentage of all Wunderlich-covered stocks assigned an equivalent Buy, Hold, or Sell rating.

** Percentage of companies within Wunderlich-rated Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for which Wunderlich or an associated firm provided investment banking services within the

past 12 months.

Rating System:

There are three rating categories within the Wunderlich Securities Investment Rating System: Buy, Hold, and Sell. The rating assigned to each company is based on tfollowing criteria.

Buy a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of greater than 20% over the next 12-18 months.

Hold - a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of plus or minus 5% over the next 12-18 months.

Sell a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a negative total return of greater than 10% over the next 12-18 months.

The analyst(s) who prepared this report may be compensated in part from a bonus pool that is partially funded by fees received by Wunderlich Securities for providin

investment banking services.

To request further information regarding the companies discussed in this report, readers may send an email to [email protected] or may write to the WunderlSecurities Research Department, Wunderlich Securities, Inc., 400 E. Pratt Street, Suite 710, Baltimore, MD, 21202.

Other Disclosures

Wunderlich Securities, Inc. ("WSI") is a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of Financial Industry RegulatoAuthority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resid

Kirby Corporation May 17, 20

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Wunderlich Securities, IChaz Jones 901.251.2231 [email protected] Bender 901.251.2230 [email protected]



of or located in any locali ty, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which wosubject WSI or any divisions, subsidiaries or affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to WSI. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altein any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of WSI. All trademarks, service marks and logos usedthis report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of WSI or its affiliates. The information, tools and material presented in this report aprovided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securitiesother financial instruments.

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by virtue of their receiving the report. The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consultindependent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advor a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you.

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Kirby Corporation May 17, 20

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Wunderlich Securities, IChaz Jones 901.251.2231 [email protected] Bender 901.251.2230 [email protected]



Baltimore400 E. Pratt Street

Suite 710

Baltimore, MD 21202866.297.8259

Boston260 Franklin Street

Suite 510Boston, MA 02109

617.892.7151

Chicago200 W. Madison Street

Suite 2950

Chicago, IL 60606

800.388.3851

Denver1099 18th Street

Suite 2015

Denver, CO 80202

866.493.6588

Houston10370 Richmond Avenue

Suite 950

Houston, TX 77042888.385.6928

Memphis6000 Poplar Avenue

Suite 150Memphis, TN 38119

800.726.0557

New York60 East 42nd Street

Suite 1007

New York, NY 10165

866.575.2223

San Francisco275 Battery Street

Suite 480

San Francisco, CA 94111

415.489.6800

St. Louis7711 Bonhomme St.

Suite 600

St. Louis, MO 63105888.432.5671

Director of Equity Capital MarketsJ. Jeffery Fowlds 303.965.7964 [email protected]

Brooke Hrimnak 410.369.2609 [email protected]

Equity Research

Director of Research

Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 [email protected]

Accounting and Tax Policy

Forensic Accounting

Mike Gyure, CPA 440.364.7473 [email protected]

Diversified Industrials

Environmental Services

Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 [email protected] J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 [email protected]

Diversified/IndustrialsBrent D. Rakers, CFA 901.251.2236 [email protected]

Anjali R. Voria, CFA 901.251.2238 [email protected]

TransportationBrian J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 [email protected]

Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 [email protected]

Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 [email protected]

Energy

Alternative Energy

Theodore O'Neill 212.402.2054 [email protected]

Exploration & ProductionIrene O. Haas 713.403.3980 [email protected]

Mostafa Dahhane, CFA 713.403.3986 [email protected]

Oilfield Services/Exploration & ProductionJason Wangler 713.403.3985 [email protected]

Master Limited Partnerships

John R. Cusick 212.402.2057 [email protected]

Utilities/PowerJames L. Dobson 212.402.2059 [email protected]

Financial Services

Real Estate

Merrill Ross 703.307.9409 [email protected]

Regional BanksKevin Reynolds, CFA 901.251.2229 [email protected]

Jeremy Lucas 901.251.1362 [email protected]

Healthcare

Medical DevicesGregory J. Simpson, CFA 314.719.3467 [email protected]

Derek Winters 314.719.3468 [email protected]

Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT)

Cable/Satellite EntertainmentMatthew Harrigan 303.965.7966 [email protected]

Communications & Networking Equipment

Matthew S. Robison 415.572.0936 [email protected]

Information Infrastructure

Brian S. Freed, CFA 901.251.1353 [email protected]

Jeffrey J. Andry 901.259.9432 [email protected]

Richard K. Baldry, CFA 410.369.2633 [email protected]

Specialty Semiconductors and Components

William S. Harrison 410.369.2632 [email protected]

Blake T. Harper, CFA 410.369.2629 [email protected]

Institutional Equity Sales

Director of Institutional SalesThomas S. Stephens 410.369.2602 [email protected]

Beth Adams 972.772.5066 [email protected]

Clifford Athey 410.369.2627 [email protected]

Tim Ballard 901.259.9411 [email protected]

Greg Brown 303.260.7902 [email protected]

Brett Chiles 901.259.9436 [email protected]

James Donovan 617.892.7222 [email protected]

Paul Gillespie 901.259.9407 [email protected]

Daniel Glading 410.369.2613 [email protected]

Mike Grabenstein 410.369.2629 [email protected]

Thomas Hadley 303.260.7905 [email protected]

Haywood Henderson 901.259.9438 [email protected] Hohweiler 410.369.2610 [email protected]

Sam Levine 212.402.2067 [email protected]

Mark McCulloh 410.369.2619 [email protected]

Ethel McGlynn 303.260.7904 [email protected]

Kyle Norton 212.402.2060 [email protected]

Kristi Papanikolaw 212.402.2058 [email protected]

Jean Potvin 212.402.2065 [email protected]

Beth Rosenberry 312.368.0478 [email protected]

Christina Rosso 212.402.2055 [email protected]

Ned Sinnott 804.263.5240 [email protected]

Institutional Equity Trading

Director of Institutional Equity Trading

Stephen C. Iskalis 303.260.7901 [email protected]

John Belgrade 888.257.4152 [email protected]

Chuck Berry 303.965.7961 [email protected]

Erik Briggs 410.369.2611 [email protected]

Trip Carey 617.892.7220 [email protected]

Jeffrey England 303.965.7960 [email protected]

Daniel Muhly 410.369.2606 [email protected]

Documents

WunderlichSecuritiesInc_InitiatingCoverageWithaBuy-DominantBargeOperatorEngineServiceNiche_2012_5_17