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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA
For the first time in over a decade, global imports of pork, beef, and broiler meats are all forecast to decline in a single year. Deterioration in the global economic situation, restrictive trade policies, the stronger U.S. dollar and changing market conditions, are among the reasons for falling demand in some major importing countries.
The drop in global pork imports can mostly be attributed to a combination of cost prohibitive Russian out-of-quota tariffs, Ukraine’s worsening economic conditions and currency devaluation, and greater Chinese pork production. These three countries account for over 20 percent of world demand, but nearly 80 percent of the year-to-year drop.
Weaker beef demand by many principal importers such as Russia, Mexico and South Korea will more than offset growth in the United States and the EU, two of the world’s largest importers.
Global imports of broiler meat are down mainly because of Russia, which accounts for 15 percent of world imports in 2008. Russia’s restrictive import quotas and cost prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs constrain trade, while production is expanding with newer facilities as the government is committed to becoming a net exporter in the near future.
World Meat Import Demand to Fall
United StatesDepartment ofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService
Circular SeriesApril 2009
Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of April 9, 2009..
Year-to-Year Changes for 2005 - 2009
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Percent
PorkBeefBroiler
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
April 2009
Contents
Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 2009 Forecast Overviews
Beef Pork Poultry
Summary Tables
Beef Summary Table Pork Summary Table
Broiler Meat Summary Table Turkey Meat Summary Table
Cattle Summary Table Swine Summary Table
Notes to Readers
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
Percent Change 2008 to
2009
Beef and Veal /1 55,585 56,679 58,159 58,898 58,538 57,648 -1.5%
Pork /1 92,074 94,551 96,156 94,700 98,441 100,318 1.9%
Broiler and Turkey /2 64,583 67,983 69,192 73,324 76,549 76,490 -0.1%
Total 212,242 219,213 223,507 226,922 233,528 234,456 0.4%
Beef and Veal /1 55,244 56,204 57,368 58,308 57,769 57,038 -1.3%
Pork /1 91,860 94,189 95,920 94,549 98,269 100,171 1.9%
Broiler & Turkey /2 63,780 67,172 68,894 72,935 75,570 76,227 0.9%
Total 210,884 217,565 222,182 225,792 231,608 233,436 0.8%
Beef and Veal /1 6,164 6,769 6,791 7,121 6,834 6,632 -3.0%
Pork /1 4,474 4,741 4,921 5,087 5,916 5,130 -13.3%
Broiler and Turkey /2 5,845 6,613 6,762 7,507 8,225 8,069 -1.9%
Total 16,483 18,123 18,474 19,715 20,975 19,831 -5.5%
Beef and Veal /1 6,658 7,315 7,517 7,643 7,565 7,230 -4.4%
Pork /1 4,716 5,006 5,224 5,162 6,137 5,379 -12.4%
Broiler and Turkey /2 6,584 7,432 7,120 7,962 9,074 8,509 -6.2%
Total 17,958 19,753 19,861 20,767 22,776 21,118 -7.3%
Beef and Veal /1 209 316 519 650 856 826 -3.5%
Pork /1 989 1,209 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,837 -13.2%
Broiler and Turkey /2 2,371 2,618 2,609 2,926 3,465 3,003 -13.3%
Total 3,569 4,143 4,487 5,001 6,438 5,666 -12.0%
Change in Market Share Points
Beef and Veal /1 3% 4% 7% 9% 11% 11% 0%
Pork /1 21% 24% 26% 28% 34% 34% 0%
Broiler and Turkey /2 36% 35% 37% 37% 38% 35% -3%
Combined 20% 21% 23% 24% 28% 27% -1%
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.
1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast
Imports
Exports
U.S. Exports
U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders
Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry
Production
Consumption
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
BEEF AND VEAL: 2009 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW Note: Significant revisions in the historical and forecast Indian cattle and beef PSDs are included in the April 2009 release. These revisions, particularly for 2008 and 2009 estimates and forecasts of beef production and trade, reflect new data and methodology more than a change in the actual forecast. Global Production 2 Percent Lower on Reduced Cattle Supplies, Higher Input Costs and Lower Returns Cattle supplies in the United States and Argentina are forecast lower, generating tighter beef supplies. U.S. cattle inventory is at its lowest since 1959. Increased Brazilian slaughter in recent years has reduced supplies and spurred high prices, constraining domestic and foreign consumption growth. The sector also remains plagued by bankruptcies and plant closings by key packers. Argentina faces a shortage of feed reserves, the reduction of thousands of hectares of pastures (turned into cropland or affected by drought), and a smaller corn crop. China is adversely affected by rising input costs, and low returns. Alternatively, expansion in both EU and Canadian production is based on a decline in feed grain prices and higher slaughter. Consumption Shrinks for Most Countries, Strong Declines in Russia and Argentina In a period of global recession, consumers would be expected to shift to lower-cost animal proteins (such as pork and poultry) and non-animal proteins (such as fish and vegetable proteins), fewer meals at restaurants and smaller portions. In the case of South Korea, for example, beef is traditionally a side dish eaten at restaurants rather than at home. Initial survey data shows that when faced with diminished incomes, consumers will reduce eating out thus reducing beef consumption. Mexican and South Korean consumption will be dampened as they face higher import prices due in part to weaker currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.
Global Imports Ease 3 Percent as Economic Downturn Hits Beef Recession driven declines in consumption weakened Mexican and South Korean import demand. As Russian consumption contracts, imports are forecast down. Alternatively, tight U.S. supplies combined with a stronger dollar will bolster U.S. imports. EU imports are revised upward as more Brazilian farms will be eligible to ship beef to the EU.
World Exports Slump, Especially Brazil Almost no major beef exporter will avoid the global slump in import demand. Despite a more optimistic view of sales to the EU, a reduction in Russian and Middle East imports will result in the lowest level of Brazilian exports since 2004.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
PORK: 2009 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW Global Production Up, Driven by Chinese Growth Production is now forecast up 2 percent from last year, as expansion in China (nearly 50 percent of world production) overshadows lower production for most other major producers. Chinese growth is fueled by continued government subsidies and strong domestic demand; production has fully recovered from the 2007 blue ear disease outbreak. Canadian production is also up in part because of higher slaughter rates as live hog exports are lower and herd downsizing continues. However in the United States, reductions in both the domestic herd and Canadian live swine imports contribute to lower pork production. While in Brazil, production is constrained by the credit crunch on traders and packers, and less import demand from Russia. Slight (2 Percent) Consumption Growth Fueled by China and the United States A stronger Chinese economy in the latter half of 2009 is expected to spur consumption and more than offsets drops in Russian consumption due to trade-limiting import quotas. U.S. consumption remains relatively flat as lower production is offset by lower exports and higher imports. World Imports Forecast to Drop off Steeply Global pork imports are now forecast to drop 13 percent from last year, with lower imports expected for 8 of the top 10 importing countries. High Russian tariff rates for out-of-quota pork, economic weakness and credit problems are now expected to limit imports to the quota. Chinese imports will shrink as higher production supported by a production subsidy program reduces the need for larger imports. Less Ukrainian imports are expected following exceptionally high 2008 imports, economic weakness and high imported pork prices because of currency devaluation. Global Exports Cut Pork exports are now cut by 12 percent from last year with global economic weakness, the credit crunch, and trade restrictive policies. The United States is slashed coming off of record 2008 exports as sales to major markets are limited by reduced imports by China and trade restrictive policies in Russia. The EU is now forecast down 27 percent from last year as a result of tighter supplies and deteriorating export opportunities. Brazil is forecast to fall below 2008 due to the credit crunch and limited demand from Russia, Brazil’s most important market.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
BROILER MEAT: 2009 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW World Broiler Meat Production Expected Virtually Unchanged From 2008 Oversupply, falling prices, and shrinking imports due to the global economic slowdown, are expected to cause production to stagnate in 2009. Over the previous 3 years production had expanded by 13 percent. Production in the United States, Brazil and China accounts for 55 percent of world output. Faced with large supplies and falling prices the Brazilian broiler industry is expected to drastically lower their rate of growth although production is still forecast to expand by 3 percent over last year. US production is expected to decline due to rapid increases in feed and energy costs. Over the longer term, continued adverse economic conditions coupled with lower prices and reduced domestic consumption are expected to dampen expansion. China’s production growth is expected to slow down as the industry is experiencing losses due to avian influenza outbreaks, causing slaughterhouses to close. Russian and Ukrainian production continues to expand, aided by government subsidized credits and import restricting policies. Global Consumption Forecast Up Slightly – But Below Past Growth Rates Higher production in the EU and Brazil will support expanding consumption in those countries. For the EU, despite rising domestic poultry prices, consumption continues to grow. US consumption is expected to decline due to the unsettled economic conditions as incomes are reduced. Chinese consumption growth is expected to slow as consumers shift to pork, their more favored meat, and unemployment rates of migrant workers rise; a major segment of the population that consumes poultry. Global Imports are Expected to Ease Slightly Imports are now forecast to decline slightly in 2009, after imports had surged nearly 30 percent over the 3 previous years. Imports are expected to be constrained by restrictive import policies, high tariffs and weaker currencies in Russia and Ukraine, and oversupply in the case of Japan. Alternatively, Chinese, Mexican, and EU imports are revised upwards as more broiler meat is expected to be consumed in these markets. World Exports Decline Lower exports from Brazil, the United States and the EU, which together account for 90 percent of global trade, reflects restrictive Russian import policies and intensified competition. Despite falling prices, Brazilian exports are estimated to have much slower growth as exports are forecast only slightly higher than in 2008, largely due to reduced imports by Japan. EU exports face more competition from lower-cost countries like Brazil and the United States. Declining U.S. exports reflect tighter domestic supplies and overstocked markets, among other factors.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Beef and Veal Selected Countries
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Production
8,9359,3959,0249,3039,0258,592 Brazil
8,2008,1708,1008,1888,1508,090 EU-27
6,0006,3606,1006,1345,7675,681 China, Peoples Republic of
3,0103,1603,1503,3003,1003,200 Argentina
2,4752,7902,4702,4132,3752,250 India
2,2302,2932,2252,2072,1752,125 Mexico
2,1002,0702,1592,1722,1832,102 Australia
1,3401,2601,2851,2791,3911,523 Canada
1,2751,3001,3151,3701,4301,525 Russian Federation
1,1501,1501,1211,0891,0571,005 Pakistan
8,8288,8049,4269,3479,5269,268 Others
45,54346,75246,37546,80246,17945,361 Total Foreign
12,10512,20312,16312,09611,98011,318 United States
57,64858,95558,53858,89858,15956,679 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
8,5208,4908,3628,6918,6498,550 EU-27
7,2907,4107,2527,1446,9696,795 Brazil
5,9686,3246,0626,0655,6925,614 China, Peoples Republic of
2,6142,6842,7332,7712,5532,451 Argentina
2,5382,6852,5912,5682,5192,428 Mexico
2,3382,3182,4412,3922,3612,492 Russian Federation
1,8751,9751,8451,7351,6941,633 India
1,1911,1941,1741,1821,1591,188 Japan
1,1551,1661,1281,1081,0901,009 Pakistan
1,0501,0601,0311,0691,0851,079 Canada
9,94510,18510,69810,75410,76410,301 Others
44,48445,49145,31745,47944,53543,540 Total Foreign
12,55412,48312,45212,82912,83312,664 United States
57,03857,97457,76958,30857,36856,204 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.
2/ From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the beef PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Imports
1,0751,0301,1371,030939978 Russian Federation
660690659686678686 Japan
500420463643717711 EU-27
350435408403383335 Mexico
255340295308298250 Korea, Republic of
2502503201865432 Venezuela
235265230242180151 Canada
205240205293292221 Egypt
150165159153136137 Philippines
135140129151124200 Chile
1,5611,6811,6781,6421,5911,436 Others
5,3765,6565,6835,7375,3925,137 Total Foreign
1,2561,2131,1511,3841,3991,632 United States
6,6326,8696,8347,1216,7916,769 Total
none
Total Exports
1,6752,0151,8012,1892,0841,845 Brazil
1,3501,3501,4071,4001,4301,388 Australia
600815625678681617 India
525470494457477596 Canada
525497533496530577 New Zealand
400480421534552754 Argentina
350420361385460417 Uruguay
245290232196232180 Paraguay
180100201140218253 EU-27
1751602061143113 Colombia
379334428404303359 Others
6,4046,9316,7096,9936,9986,999 Total Foreign
826934856650519316 United States
7,2307,8657,5657,6437,5177,315 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.
2/ From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the beef PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Production
48,70046,00046,15042,87846,50545,553 China, Peoples Republic of
22,10022,10022,53022,85821,79121,676 EU-27
3,0103,1603,0152,9902,8302,710 Brazil
2,1452,1802,0601,9101,8051,735 Russian Federation
1,9601,7701,9201,8941,8981,920 Canada
1,8501,8501,8501,8321,7131,602 Vietnam
1,2401,2401,2491,2501,2471,245 Japan
1,2001,2001,1901,2451,2151,175 Philippines
1,1501,1701,1601,1521,1081,195 Mexico
1,0001,0451,0561,0431,0001,036 Korea, Republic of
5,6245,6405,6625,6865,4855,312 Others
89,97987,35587,84284,73886,59785,159 Total Foreign
10,33910,50710,5999,9629,5599,392 United States
100,31897,86298,44194,70096,15694,551 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
48,79046,19046,35742,72646,05145,139 China, Peoples Republic of
20,90520,68020,97021,50720,63220,632 EU-27
2,8943,1393,1122,8032,6392,486 Russian Federation
2,4762,4882,4862,4732,4522,509 Japan
2,4002,4552,3902,2602,1911,949 Brazil
1,8841,8891,8801,8551,7311,583 Vietnam
1,5301,6101,6041,5231,4881,556 Mexico
1,4401,4681,5191,5021,4201,311 Korea, Republic of
1,2391,2431,2351,2701,2391,198 Philippines
1,0159809931,023973966 Canada
6,7146,9026,9126,6416,4646,191 Others
91,28789,04489,45885,58387,28085,520 Total Foreign
8,8848,5668,8118,9668,6408,669 United States
100,17197,61098,26994,54995,92094,189 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Imports
1,2401,2421,2671,2101,1541,314 Japan
7509601,053894835752 Russian Federation
475530535451446420 Mexico
400440430447410345 Korea, Republic of
345390346302277263 Hong Kong
3003604301989088 China, Peoples Republic of
205230195171145139 Canada
140155152141109105 Australia
878591979885 Singapore
55556085240 Belarus
752924980729856726 Others
4,7495,3715,5394,6484,4724,277 Total Foreign
381372377439449464 United States
5,1305,7435,9165,0874,9214,741 Total
none
Total Exports
1,2501,4751,7151,2861,2841,143 EU-27
1,1501,0801,1291,0331,0811,084 Canada
610705625730639761 Brazil
210170223350544502 China, Peoples Republic of
130120142148130128 Chile
959091806659 Mexico
505248546056 Australia
151511131416 Korea, Republic of
111111192019 Vietnam
444641 Serbia
171921182328 Others
3,5423,7414,0203,7373,8653,797 Total Foreign
1,8372,3132,1171,4251,3591,209 United States
5,3796,0546,1375,1625,2245,006 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Production
12,13313,70011,89511,29110,35010,200 China, Peoples Republic of
11,36011,41711,03310,3059,3559,350 Brazil
8,6008,4958,5608,3207,7408,169 EU-27
2,7952,8602,8042,6832,5922,498 Mexico
2,3502,7702,4902,2402,0001,900 India
1,7751,7801,6001,3501,180900 Russian Federation
1,4301,5501,4201,3201,2001,030 Argentina
1,4251,4251,4251,4231,3271,237 Iran
1,2601,2601,2671,2501,2581,166 Japan
1,1121,1121,0701,005946884 South Africa, Republic of
11,19511,38111,12410,77510,3519,837 Others
55,43557,75054,68851,96248,29947,171 Total Foreign
15,91916,48716,56116,22515,93015,870 United States
71,35474,23771,24968,18764,22963,041 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
12,34313,86712,00911,41510,37110,088 China, Peoples Republic of
8,5958,5658,4978,3587,6558,082 EU-27
8,0547,7577,7927,3846,8536,612 Brazil
3,2523,2953,2403,0673,0162,868 Mexico
2,7952,9682,7442,5782,3732,139 Russian Federation
2,3502,7702,4892,2392,0001,899 India
1,9501,9351,9381,9451,9701,880 Japan
1,4351,4541,4351,4641,3261,223 Iran
1,2991,3001,2581,2391,2021,069 South Africa, Republic of
1,2851,4201,2601,2001,109941 Argentina
14,57014,81814,43013,44712,47812,076 Others
57,92860,14957,09254,33650,35348,877 Total Foreign
13,26613,68213,42613,58113,67113,430 United States
71,19473,83170,51867,91764,02462,307 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are not included.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Imports
9801,1901,1591,2221,1891,225 Russian Federation
680680677673605609 EU-27
670680737696716748 Japan
510500510470423484 Saudi Arabia
470450447393430374 Mexico
425450399482343219 China, Peoples Republic of
360320352163124104 Venezuela
290300289238182167 United Arab Emirates
260250248164426 Vietnam
245250236215243222 Hong Kong
2,6292,7562,6432,2811,9671,950 Others
7,5197,8267,6976,9976,2646,108 Total Foreign
363635282115 United States
7,5557,8627,7327,0256,2856,123 Total
none
Total Exports
3,3063,6603,2422,9222,5022,739 Brazil
685610740635690696 EU-27
360360383296261240 Thailand
215283285358322331 China, Peoples Republic of
1501351641259492 Argentina
125150152139110102 Canada
707070603897 Kuwait
655563396460 Chile
303030301020 United Arab Emirates
282527251618 Australia
807582758873 Others
5,1145,4535,2384,7044,1954,468 Total Foreign
2,7442,8463,1582,6782,3612,360 United States
7,8588,2998,3967,3826,5566,828 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Iraqi imports include all US broiler meat shipped to Turkey.
2/ Chicken paws are not included in the trade data.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Production
1,7501,7501,7601,7901,8581,919 EU-27
550550510458353360 Brazil
172172172169163155 Canada
404035251917 Russian Federation
161615151414 Mexico
777755 South Africa, Republic of
555544 China, Peoples Republic of
000444 Others
2,5402,5402,5042,4732,4202,478 Total Foreign
2,5962,7332,7962,6642,5432,464 United States
5,1365,2735,3005,1374,9634,942 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
1,7501,7501,7501,7691,8411,888 EU-27
310315295281197199 Brazil
223223218213200197 Mexico
158158156149144143 Canada
120120115100110124 Russian Federation
656555352116 China, Peoples Republic of
323232473930 South Africa, Republic of
000232322 Others
2,6582,6632,6212,6172,5752,619 Total Foreign
2,3752,4572,4312,4012,2952,246 United States
5,0335,1205,0525,0184,8704,865 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is no longer included in the turkey meat PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Imports
211211207202189185 Mexico
120120115103113128 EU-27
8080807591107 Russian Federation
606050301712 China, Peoples Republic of
252525403425 South Africa, Republic of
1313129912 Canada
000191918 Others
509509489478472487 Total Foreign
554453 United States
514514493482477490 Total
none
Total Exports
240235215177156161 Brazil
120120125124130159 EU-27
282827272724 Canada
444432 Mexico
000000 Others
392387371332316346 Total Foreign
259288307248248258 United States
651675678580564604 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is no longer included in the turkey meat PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
281,400281,400281,700282,000282,300282,500 India
179,551177,492175,437173,830172,111169,567 Brazil
106,123107,095105,948104,651109,908112,354 China, Peoples Republic of
89,40288,00089,04388,46389,67289,319 EU-27
54,76055,16255,66255,66454,26653,767 Argentina
31,04131,04030,09529,26228,45227,370 Colombia
28,58028,30028,04028,40027,78227,270 Australia
27,13227,09426,72526,64426,94927,572 Mexico
17,90017,80018,37019,00019,85021,100 Russian Federation
14,19514,19514,08213,93413,79013,510 South Africa, Republic of
56,20155,05167,45974,09875,73576,945 Others
886,285882,629892,561895,946900,815901,274 Total Foreign
94,49196,20096,03596,57396,34294,018 United States
980,776978,829988,596992,519997,157995,292 Total
none
Production (Calf Crop)
57,75057,96057,45057,00057,00056,500 India
49,56349,66049,29848,84548,18847,309 Brazil
44,40048,50045,00045,35339,82739,441 China, Peoples Republic of
31,05030,50031,25031,50030,62532,207 EU-27
14,20014,80015,20015,90015,80015,800 Argentina
9,94510,10010,2389,36910,1049,643 Australia
8,5508,5008,2358,2007,9507,500 Mexico
6,9706,9707,1007,3107,5057,950 Russian Federation
5,7655,7655,7605,7505,7405,735 Colombia
5,1005,4005,3005,5415,3395,501 Canada
17,78117,46622,08223,05823,64923,453 Others
251,074255,621256,913257,826251,727251,039 Total Foreign
35,50036,60036,11336,75937,01637,106 United States
286,574292,221293,026294,585288,743288,145 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.
2/ From 2008, the Philippines is no longer included in the cattle PSD.
From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the cattle PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Imports
100100120171210210 South Africa, Republic of
8214490817285 Mexico
7550701021 Brazil
505035301943 Egypt
506057755814 Russian Federation
404549543821 Canada
202020252625 Japan
16815151550 China, Peoples Republic of
434444 EU-27
333412 Ukraine
11114764105 Others
441484474516509560 Total Foreign
2,0002,3002,2842,4952,2891,816 United States
2,4412,7842,7583,0112,7982,376 Total
none
Total Exports
1,1501,3001,5981,4121,032559 Canada
8501,0007381,0891,2751,259 Mexico
825900868719634573 Australia
450300459387469364 EU-27
435580414438246113 Brazil
808068581010 South Africa, Republic of
6060169469910 Uruguay
303033515454 China, Peoples Republic of
252518323046 Nicaragua
151817283250 New Zealand
111120140254143 Others
3,9314,3044,4024,4004,1353,181 Total Foreign
60130107665022 United States
3,9914,4344,5094,4664,1853,203 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.
2/ From 2008, the Philippines is no longer included in the cattle PSD.
From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the cattle PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Live Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Beginning Stocks
462,640446,662439,895418,504433,191421,234 China, Peoples Republic of
156,250158,000159,732161,526159,115156,973 EU-27
33,27732,87032,94733,14732,93832,323 Brazil
19,56219,52018,18717,18016,55016,500 Russian Federation
12,40012,43513,81014,90715,11014,810 Canada
9,7809,36510,12910,25010,12510,303 Mexico
9,7609,7459,7459,7599,6209,600 Japan
8,2238,2638,7428,5188,0988,044 Korea, Republic of
6,4405,9437,0208,0557,0526,466 Ukraine
2,1812,5502,6052,4712,4902,530 Australia
nrnr2,39851,52250,01347,416 Others
720,513705,353705,210735,839744,302726,199 Total Foreign
66,76867,20068,17762,51661,46360,982 United States
787,281772,553773,387798,355805,765787,181 Total
none
Production (Pig Crop)
667,769615,000635,978592,080605,823618,587 China, Peoples Republic of
257,000257,000261,000265,100259,158257,362 EU-27
43,60044,44041,76039,15037,00035,500 Russian Federation
35,60036,04034,84534,53033,30432,295 Brazil
29,80029,00031,24931,83232,27433,020 Canada
16,85016,88016,95017,05016,95017,000 Japan
15,27515,60015,25015,26515,70015,500 Mexico
13,47614,17413,79214,42213,94313,817 Korea, Republic of
6,2506,1006,5286,9867,5436,865 Ukraine
4,6194,9504,4225,4805,3015,283 Australia
nrnr5,03084,35681,46178,546 Others
1,090,2391,039,1841,066,8041,106,2511,108,4571,113,775 Total Foreign
113,465114,700114,667112,873105,633103,975 United States
1,203,7041,153,8841,181,4711,219,1241,214,0901,217,750 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines and Vietnam are no longer included in the swine and pork PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oct
2009
Apr
none
Total Imports
80052577037738284 Russian Federation
7522580136196181 Mexico
7575861240139 Ukraine
9712323 China, Peoples Republic of
212261 EU-27
112211 Canada
112322 Korea, Republic of
002212 Others
963835956537630413 Total Foreign
7,0007,8009,34810,0048,7638,191 United States
7,9638,63510,30410,5419,3938,604 Total
none
Total Exports
7,0007,8009,35710,0328,7778,215 Canada
1,7001,4001,6451,6091,7231,769 China, Peoples Republic of
1,2001,0001,554901967637 EU-27
100100 Russian Federation
001303 Others
9,90110,20012,55712,54611,46710,624 Total Foreign
5517098137165154 United States
9,95610,37012,65512,68311,63210,778 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines and Vietnam are no longer included in the swine PSD.
2/ From 2009, Chile is no longer included in the swine PSD.
Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview of the situation. Data Modifications Based on new information, the following countries have significant historical (pre-2007) changes to the PSD: Cattle/Beef:
• India and Nicaragua Broiler Meat:
• Guatemala Conversion Rates
Beef/Veal Pork
Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201
Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250
Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249
Beef/Veal Exceptions:
• Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay: Exports: 0201, 0202 – 1.40; 021020 and 160250 - 1.79. Imports: 1.40 for ALL beef/veal codes
• EU: Exports and Imports: 0201, 0202 – 1.40; 021020 and 160250 - 1.79.
• Canada, Japan: Exports: 1.40 for ALL beef/veal codes Imports: 0201, 0202 – 1.40; 021020 and 160250 - 1.79
Broiler Turkey and Other Poultry Conversion Rate 1 1 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13
Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed and Salted: 1602.32,
0210.99
Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35
Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31
Broiler/Turkey Exceptions:
• U.S., Brazil, and Argentina (1997-2004): Chicken Paw Exports Excluded using -
Hong Kong Imports/Exports: 02071410 China Imports: 02071422 U.S. Exports: 0207140045
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
• Argentina (2005 to present): Exports exclude Argentina Paw Exports using Argentina Government sources.
• China: Imports include Hong Kong Broiler Meat Exports.
• Hong Kong: Excludes re-exports of Broiler Meat.
• Canada: Imports exclude Spent Hens: 0207131000, 0207111000, 0207141000, 0207141010, 0207141020, 0207141030, 0207141049, 0207141090, 1602321110, and 1602329220.
• EU-27: Imports include Salted Poultry from South America and Thailand: 02109939.
• Mexico: Imports include Meat Sausage: 160232 and 1601000020
Assumptions • BSE: Forecasts assume a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform
encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of April 9, 2009. • AI: Poultry trade forecasts reflect policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks of avian
influenza (AI) as of April 9, 2009. • FMD: Forecasts reflect the status of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) situation in Brazil as of
April 9, 2009 and any resulting trade restrictions. Technical Notes Turkey Meat: Turkey meat summary tables are included in the circular for the convenience of readers but have not been revised since the October 2008 release. The turkey meat data series is only revised annually. CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. Per Capita Consumption: The Per Capita Consumption tables are only published with the October circular. However, tables can be replicated/updated using “Domestic Consumption” data in the PSD and Census population data. Census population data is available in Excel format from USDA-Economic Research Service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since March 2009 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis. Additional information on international trade of agricultural products can be found at: http://www.fas.usda.gov. Situation and outlook information on the U.S. livestock and poultry industry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/. Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases of “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade”. The next release of this circular will be in October 2009. Questions regarding this forecast as well as world trade of livestock and poultry products may be directed to the following staff: Michelle DeGraaf
(202) 720-7285
Michelle.DeGraaf@fas.usda.gov
Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products)
Claire Mezoughem
(202) 720-7715
Claire.Mezoughem@fas.usda.gov
Cattle, Beef, Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hides and skins)
Lesley Taulman
(202) 720-2781
Lesley.Taulman@fas.usda.gov
Swine and Pork
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
April 2009
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