World Meat Import Demand to Fall - Cornell University · 2009/4/16 · vegetable proteins), fewer meals at restaurants and smaller portions. In the case of South Korea, for example,

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

For the first time in over a decade, global imports of pork, beef, and broiler meats are all forecast to decline in a single year. Deterioration in the global economic situation, restrictive trade policies, the stronger U.S. dollar and changing market conditions, are among the reasons for falling demand in some major importing countries.

The drop in global pork imports can mostly be attributed to a combination of cost prohibitive Russian out-of-quota tariffs, Ukraine’s worsening economic conditions and currency devaluation, and greater Chinese pork production. These three countries account for over 20 percent of world demand, but nearly 80 percent of the year-to-year drop.

Weaker beef demand by many principal importers such as Russia, Mexico and South Korea will more than offset growth in the United States and the EU, two of the world’s largest importers.

Global imports of broiler meat are down mainly because of Russia, which accounts for 15 percent of world imports in 2008. Russia’s restrictive import quotas and cost prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs constrain trade, while production is expanding with newer facilities as the government is committed to becoming a net exporter in the near future.

World Meat Import Demand to Fall

United StatesDepartment ofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService

Circular SeriesApril 2009

Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of April 9, 2009..

Year-to-Year Changes for 2005 - 2009

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Percent

PorkBeefBroiler

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

April 2009

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 2009 Forecast Overviews

Beef Pork Poultry

Summary Tables

Beef Summary Table Pork Summary Table

Broiler Meat Summary Table Turkey Meat Summary Table

Cattle Summary Table Swine Summary Table

Notes to Readers

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis

April 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)

Percent Change 2008 to

2009

Beef and Veal /1 55,585 56,679 58,159 58,898 58,538 57,648 -1.5%

Pork /1 92,074 94,551 96,156 94,700 98,441 100,318 1.9%

Broiler and Turkey /2 64,583 67,983 69,192 73,324 76,549 76,490 -0.1%

Total 212,242 219,213 223,507 226,922 233,528 234,456 0.4%

Beef and Veal /1 55,244 56,204 57,368 58,308 57,769 57,038 -1.3%

Pork /1 91,860 94,189 95,920 94,549 98,269 100,171 1.9%

Broiler & Turkey /2 63,780 67,172 68,894 72,935 75,570 76,227 0.9%

Total 210,884 217,565 222,182 225,792 231,608 233,436 0.8%

Beef and Veal /1 6,164 6,769 6,791 7,121 6,834 6,632 -3.0%

Pork /1 4,474 4,741 4,921 5,087 5,916 5,130 -13.3%


Total 16,483 18,123 18,474 19,715 20,975 19,831 -5.5%

Beef and Veal /1 6,658 7,315 7,517 7,643 7,565 7,230 -4.4%

Pork /1 4,716 5,006 5,224 5,162 6,137 5,379 -12.4%


Total 17,958 19,753 19,861 20,767 22,776 21,118 -7.3%

Beef and Veal /1 209 316 519 650 856 826 -3.5%

Pork /1 989 1,209 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,837 -13.2%


Total 3,569 4,143 4,487 5,001 6,438 5,666 -12.0%

Change in Market Share Points

Beef and Veal /1 3% 4% 7% 9% 11% 11% 0%

Pork /1 21% 24% 26% 28% 34% 34% 0%

Broiler and Turkey /2 36% 35% 37% 37% 38% 35% -3%

Combined 20% 21% 23% 24% 28% 27% -1%

Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.

1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

(p) preliminary; (f) forecast

Imports

Exports

U.S. Exports

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

Production

Consumption


April 2009

BEEF AND VEAL: 2009 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW Note: Significant revisions in the historical and forecast Indian cattle and beef PSDs are included in the April 2009 release. These revisions, particularly for 2008 and 2009 estimates and forecasts of beef production and trade, reflect new data and methodology more than a change in the actual forecast. Global Production 2 Percent Lower on Reduced Cattle Supplies, Higher Input Costs and Lower Returns Cattle supplies in the United States and Argentina are forecast lower, generating tighter beef supplies. U.S. cattle inventory is at its lowest since 1959. Increased Brazilian slaughter in recent years has reduced supplies and spurred high prices, constraining domestic and foreign consumption growth. The sector also remains plagued by bankruptcies and plant closings by key packers. Argentina faces a shortage of feed reserves, the reduction of thousands of hectares of pastures (turned into cropland or affected by drought), and a smaller corn crop. China is adversely affected by rising input costs, and low returns. Alternatively, expansion in both EU and Canadian production is based on a decline in feed grain prices and higher slaughter. Consumption Shrinks for Most Countries, Strong Declines in Russia and Argentina In a period of global recession, consumers would be expected to shift to lower-cost animal proteins (such as pork and poultry) and non-animal proteins (such as fish and vegetable proteins), fewer meals at restaurants and smaller portions. In the case of South Korea, for example, beef is traditionally a side dish eaten at restaurants rather than at home. Initial survey data shows that when faced with diminished incomes, consumers will reduce eating out thus reducing beef consumption. Mexican and South Korean consumption will be dampened as they face higher import prices due in part to weaker currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.

Global Imports Ease 3 Percent as Economic Downturn Hits Beef Recession driven declines in consumption weakened Mexican and South Korean import demand. As Russian consumption contracts, imports are forecast down. Alternatively, tight U.S. supplies combined with a stronger dollar will bolster U.S. imports. EU imports are revised upward as more Brazilian farms will be eligible to ship beef to the EU.

World Exports Slump, Especially Brazil Almost no major beef exporter will avoid the global slump in import demand. Despite a more optimistic view of sales to the EU, a reduction in Russian and Middle East imports will result in the lowest level of Brazilian exports since 2004.


April 2009

PORK: 2009 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW Global Production Up, Driven by Chinese Growth Production is now forecast up 2 percent from last year, as expansion in China (nearly 50 percent of world production) overshadows lower production for most other major producers. Chinese growth is fueled by continued government subsidies and strong domestic demand; production has fully recovered from the 2007 blue ear disease outbreak. Canadian production is also up in part because of higher slaughter rates as live hog exports are lower and herd downsizing continues. However in the United States, reductions in both the domestic herd and Canadian live swine imports contribute to lower pork production. While in Brazil, production is constrained by the credit crunch on traders and packers, and less import demand from Russia. Slight (2 Percent) Consumption Growth Fueled by China and the United States A stronger Chinese economy in the latter half of 2009 is expected to spur consumption and more than offsets drops in Russian consumption due to trade-limiting import quotas. U.S. consumption remains relatively flat as lower production is offset by lower exports and higher imports. World Imports Forecast to Drop off Steeply Global pork imports are now forecast to drop 13 percent from last year, with lower imports expected for 8 of the top 10 importing countries. High Russian tariff rates for out-of-quota pork, economic weakness and credit problems are now expected to limit imports to the quota. Chinese imports will shrink as higher production supported by a production subsidy program reduces the need for larger imports. Less Ukrainian imports are expected following exceptionally high 2008 imports, economic weakness and high imported pork prices because of currency devaluation. Global Exports Cut Pork exports are now cut by 12 percent from last year with global economic weakness, the credit crunch, and trade restrictive policies. The United States is slashed coming off of record 2008 exports as sales to major markets are limited by reduced imports by China and trade restrictive policies in Russia. The EU is now forecast down 27 percent from last year as a result of tighter supplies and deteriorating export opportunities. Brazil is forecast to fall below 2008 due to the credit crunch and limited demand from Russia, Brazil’s most important market.


April 2009

BROILER MEAT: 2009 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW World Broiler Meat Production Expected Virtually Unchanged From 2008 Oversupply, falling prices, and shrinking imports due to the global economic slowdown, are expected to cause production to stagnate in 2009. Over the previous 3 years production had expanded by 13 percent. Production in the United States, Brazil and China accounts for 55 percent of world output. Faced with large supplies and falling prices the Brazilian broiler industry is expected to drastically lower their rate of growth although production is still forecast to expand by 3 percent over last year. US production is expected to decline due to rapid increases in feed and energy costs. Over the longer term, continued adverse economic conditions coupled with lower prices and reduced domestic consumption are expected to dampen expansion. China’s production growth is expected to slow down as the industry is experiencing losses due to avian influenza outbreaks, causing slaughterhouses to close. Russian and Ukrainian production continues to expand, aided by government subsidized credits and import restricting policies. Global Consumption Forecast Up Slightly – But Below Past Growth Rates Higher production in the EU and Brazil will support expanding consumption in those countries. For the EU, despite rising domestic poultry prices, consumption continues to grow. US consumption is expected to decline due to the unsettled economic conditions as incomes are reduced. Chinese consumption growth is expected to slow as consumers shift to pork, their more favored meat, and unemployment rates of migrant workers rise; a major segment of the population that consumes poultry. Global Imports are Expected to Ease Slightly Imports are now forecast to decline slightly in 2009, after imports had surged nearly 30 percent over the 3 previous years. Imports are expected to be constrained by restrictive import policies, high tariffs and weaker currencies in Russia and Ukraine, and oversupply in the case of Japan. Alternatively, Chinese, Mexican, and EU imports are revised upwards as more broiler meat is expected to be consumed in these markets. World Exports Decline Lower exports from Brazil, the United States and the EU, which together account for 90 percent of global trade, reflects restrictive Russian import policies and intensified competition. Despite falling prices, Brazilian exports are estimated to have much slower growth as exports are forecast only slightly higher than in 2008, largely due to reduced imports by Japan. EU exports face more competition from lower-cost countries like Brazil and the United States. Declining U.S. exports reflect tighter domestic supplies and overstocked markets, among other factors.


April 2009

Beef and Veal Selected Countries

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Production

8,9359,3959,0249,3039,0258,592 Brazil

8,2008,1708,1008,1888,1508,090 EU-27

6,0006,3606,1006,1345,7675,681 China, Peoples Republic of

3,0103,1603,1503,3003,1003,200 Argentina

2,4752,7902,4702,4132,3752,250 India

2,2302,2932,2252,2072,1752,125 Mexico

2,1002,0702,1592,1722,1832,102 Australia

1,3401,2601,2851,2791,3911,523 Canada

1,2751,3001,3151,3701,4301,525 Russian Federation

1,1501,1501,1211,0891,0571,005 Pakistan

8,8288,8049,4269,3479,5269,268 Others

45,54346,75246,37546,80246,17945,361 Total Foreign

12,10512,20312,16312,09611,98011,318 United States

57,64858,95558,53858,89858,15956,679 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

8,5208,4908,3628,6918,6498,550 EU-27

7,2907,4107,2527,1446,9696,795 Brazil


2,6142,6842,7332,7712,5532,451 Argentina

2,5382,6852,5912,5682,5192,428 Mexico


1,8751,9751,8451,7351,6941,633 India

1,1911,1941,1741,1821,1591,188 Japan

1,1551,1661,1281,1081,0901,009 Pakistan

1,0501,0601,0311,0691,0851,079 Canada

9,94510,18510,69810,75410,76410,301 Others

44,48445,49145,31745,47944,53543,540 Total Foreign

12,55412,48312,45212,82912,83312,664 United States

57,03857,97457,76958,30857,36856,204 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

2/ From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the beef PSD.

Data for 2008 is preliminary. Data for 2009 is forecast.


April 2009

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,0751,0301,1371,030939978 Russian Federation

660690659686678686 Japan

500420463643717711 EU-27

350435408403383335 Mexico

255340295308298250 Korea, Republic of

2502503201865432 Venezuela

235265230242180151 Canada

205240205293292221 Egypt

150165159153136137 Philippines

135140129151124200 Chile

1,5611,6811,6781,6421,5911,436 Others

5,3765,6565,6835,7375,3925,137 Total Foreign

1,2561,2131,1511,3841,3991,632 United States

6,6326,8696,8347,1216,7916,769 Total

none

Total Exports

1,6752,0151,8012,1892,0841,845 Brazil

1,3501,3501,4071,4001,4301,388 Australia

600815625678681617 India

525470494457477596 Canada

525497533496530577 New Zealand

400480421534552754 Argentina

350420361385460417 Uruguay

245290232196232180 Paraguay

180100201140218253 EU-27

1751602061143113 Colombia

379334428404303359 Others

6,4046,9316,7096,9936,9986,999 Total Foreign

826934856650519316 United States

7,2307,8657,5657,6437,5177,315 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

2/ From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the beef PSD.



April 2009

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Production


22,10022,10022,53022,85821,79121,676 EU-27

3,0103,1603,0152,9902,8302,710 Brazil


1,9601,7701,9201,8941,8981,920 Canada

1,8501,8501,8501,8321,7131,602 Vietnam

1,2401,2401,2491,2501,2471,245 Japan

1,2001,2001,1901,2451,2151,175 Philippines

1,1501,1701,1601,1521,1081,195 Mexico

1,0001,0451,0561,0431,0001,036 Korea, Republic of

5,6245,6405,6625,6865,4855,312 Others

89,97987,35587,84284,73886,59785,159 Total Foreign

10,33910,50710,5999,9629,5599,392 United States

100,31897,86298,44194,70096,15694,551 Total

none



20,90520,68020,97021,50720,63220,632 EU-27


2,4762,4882,4862,4732,4522,509 Japan

2,4002,4552,3902,2602,1911,949 Brazil

1,8841,8891,8801,8551,7311,583 Vietnam

1,5301,6101,6041,5231,4881,556 Mexico


1,2391,2431,2351,2701,2391,198 Philippines

1,0159809931,023973966 Canada

6,7146,9026,9126,6416,4646,191 Others

91,28789,04489,45885,58387,28085,520 Total Foreign

8,8848,5668,8118,9668,6408,669 United States

100,17197,61098,26994,54995,92094,189 Total




April 2009

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,2401,2421,2671,2101,1541,314 Japan

7509601,053894835752 Russian Federation

475530535451446420 Mexico


345390346302277263 Hong Kong

3003604301989088 China, Peoples Republic of

205230195171145139 Canada

140155152141109105 Australia

878591979885 Singapore

55556085240 Belarus

752924980729856726 Others

4,7495,3715,5394,6484,4724,277 Total Foreign

381372377439449464 United States

5,1305,7435,9165,0874,9214,741 Total

none

Total Exports

1,2501,4751,7151,2861,2841,143 EU-27

1,1501,0801,1291,0331,0811,084 Canada

610705625730639761 Brazil


130120142148130128 Chile

959091806659 Mexico

505248546056 Australia


111111192019 Vietnam

444641 Serbia

171921182328 Others

3,5423,7414,0203,7373,8653,797 Total Foreign

1,8372,3132,1171,4251,3591,209 United States

5,3796,0546,1375,1625,2245,006 Total




April 2009

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Production


11,36011,41711,03310,3059,3559,350 Brazil

8,6008,4958,5608,3207,7408,169 EU-27

2,7952,8602,8042,6832,5922,498 Mexico

2,3502,7702,4902,2402,0001,900 India

1,7751,7801,6001,3501,180900 Russian Federation

1,4301,5501,4201,3201,2001,030 Argentina

1,4251,4251,4251,4231,3271,237 Iran

1,2601,2601,2671,2501,2581,166 Japan

1,1121,1121,0701,005946884 South Africa, Republic of

11,19511,38111,12410,77510,3519,837 Others

55,43557,75054,68851,96248,29947,171 Total Foreign

15,91916,48716,56116,22515,93015,870 United States

71,35474,23771,24968,18764,22963,041 Total

none



8,5958,5658,4978,3587,6558,082 EU-27

8,0547,7577,7927,3846,8536,612 Brazil

3,2523,2953,2403,0673,0162,868 Mexico


2,3502,7702,4892,2392,0001,899 India

1,9501,9351,9381,9451,9701,880 Japan

1,4351,4541,4351,4641,3261,223 Iran

1,2991,3001,2581,2391,2021,069 South Africa, Republic of

1,2851,4201,2601,2001,109941 Argentina

14,57014,81814,43013,44712,47812,076 Others

57,92860,14957,09254,33650,35348,877 Total Foreign

13,26613,68213,42613,58113,67113,430 United States

71,19473,83170,51867,91764,02462,307 Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are not included.



April 2009

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Imports

9801,1901,1591,2221,1891,225 Russian Federation

680680677673605609 EU-27

670680737696716748 Japan

510500510470423484 Saudi Arabia

470450447393430374 Mexico


360320352163124104 Venezuela

290300289238182167 United Arab Emirates

260250248164426 Vietnam

245250236215243222 Hong Kong

2,6292,7562,6432,2811,9671,950 Others

7,5197,8267,6976,9976,2646,108 Total Foreign

363635282115 United States

7,5557,8627,7327,0256,2856,123 Total

none

Total Exports

3,3063,6603,2422,9222,5022,739 Brazil

685610740635690696 EU-27

360360383296261240 Thailand


1501351641259492 Argentina

125150152139110102 Canada

707070603897 Kuwait

655563396460 Chile

303030301020 United Arab Emirates

282527251618 Australia

807582758873 Others

5,1145,4535,2384,7044,1954,468 Total Foreign

2,7442,8463,1582,6782,3612,360 United States

7,8588,2998,3967,3826,5566,828 Total


Notes: 1/ Iraqi imports include all US broiler meat shipped to Turkey.

2/ Chicken paws are not included in the trade data.



April 2009

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Production

1,7501,7501,7601,7901,8581,919 EU-27

550550510458353360 Brazil

172172172169163155 Canada

404035251917 Russian Federation

161615151414 Mexico

777755 South Africa, Republic of


000444 Others

2,5402,5402,5042,4732,4202,478 Total Foreign

2,5962,7332,7962,6642,5432,464 United States

5,1365,2735,3005,1374,9634,942 Total

none


1,7501,7501,7501,7691,8411,888 EU-27

310315295281197199 Brazil

223223218213200197 Mexico

158158156149144143 Canada




000232322 Others

2,6582,6632,6212,6172,5752,619 Total Foreign

2,3752,4572,4312,4012,2952,246 United States

5,0335,1205,0525,0184,8704,865 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is no longer included in the turkey meat PSD.



April 2009

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Imports

211211207202189185 Mexico

120120115103113128 EU-27




1313129912 Canada

000191918 Others

509509489478472487 Total Foreign


514514493482477490 Total

none

Total Exports

240235215177156161 Brazil

120120125124130159 EU-27

282827272724 Canada

444432 Mexico

000000 Others

392387371332316346 Total Foreign

259288307248248258 United States

651675678580564604 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is no longer included in the turkey meat PSD.



April 2009

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

281,400281,400281,700282,000282,300282,500 India

179,551177,492175,437173,830172,111169,567 Brazil


89,40288,00089,04388,46389,67289,319 EU-27

54,76055,16255,66255,66454,26653,767 Argentina

31,04131,04030,09529,26228,45227,370 Colombia

28,58028,30028,04028,40027,78227,270 Australia

27,13227,09426,72526,64426,94927,572 Mexico


14,19514,19514,08213,93413,79013,510 South Africa, Republic of

56,20155,05167,45974,09875,73576,945 Others

886,285882,629892,561895,946900,815901,274 Total Foreign

94,49196,20096,03596,57396,34294,018 United States

980,776978,829988,596992,519997,157995,292 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

57,75057,96057,45057,00057,00056,500 India

49,56349,66049,29848,84548,18847,309 Brazil


31,05030,50031,25031,50030,62532,207 EU-27

14,20014,80015,20015,90015,80015,800 Argentina

9,94510,10010,2389,36910,1049,643 Australia

8,5508,5008,2358,2007,9507,500 Mexico


5,7655,7655,7605,7505,7405,735 Colombia

5,1005,4005,3005,5415,3395,501 Canada

17,78117,46622,08223,05823,64923,453 Others

251,074255,621256,913257,826251,727251,039 Total Foreign

35,50036,60036,11336,75937,01637,106 United States

286,574292,221293,026294,585288,743288,145 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2008, the Philippines is no longer included in the cattle PSD.

From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the cattle PSD.



April 2009

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Imports


8214490817285 Mexico

7550701021 Brazil

505035301943 Egypt


404549543821 Canada

202020252625 Japan


434444 EU-27

333412 Ukraine

11114764105 Others

441484474516509560 Total Foreign

2,0002,3002,2842,4952,2891,816 United States

2,4412,7842,7583,0112,7982,376 Total

none

Total Exports

1,1501,3001,5981,4121,032559 Canada

8501,0007381,0891,2751,259 Mexico

825900868719634573 Australia

450300459387469364 EU-27

435580414438246113 Brazil


6060169469910 Uruguay


252518323046 Nicaragua

151817283250 New Zealand

111120140254143 Others

3,9314,3044,4024,4004,1353,181 Total Foreign


3,9914,4344,5094,4664,1853,203 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2008, the Philippines is no longer included in the cattle PSD.

From 2009, Turkey is no longer included in the cattle PSD.



April 2009

Live Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Beginning Stocks


156,250158,000159,732161,526159,115156,973 EU-27

33,27732,87032,94733,14732,93832,323 Brazil


12,40012,43513,81014,90715,11014,810 Canada

9,7809,36510,12910,25010,12510,303 Mexico

9,7609,7459,7459,7599,6209,600 Japan


6,4405,9437,0208,0557,0526,466 Ukraine

2,1812,5502,6052,4712,4902,530 Australia

nrnr2,39851,52250,01347,416 Others

720,513705,353705,210735,839744,302726,199 Total Foreign

66,76867,20068,17762,51661,46360,982 United States

787,281772,553773,387798,355805,765787,181 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)


257,000257,000261,000265,100259,158257,362 EU-27


35,60036,04034,84534,53033,30432,295 Brazil

29,80029,00031,24931,83232,27433,020 Canada

16,85016,88016,95017,05016,95017,000 Japan

15,27515,60015,25015,26515,70015,500 Mexico


6,2506,1006,5286,9867,5436,865 Ukraine

4,6194,9504,4225,4805,3015,283 Australia

nrnr5,03084,35681,46178,546 Others

1,090,2391,039,1841,066,8041,106,2511,108,4571,113,775 Total Foreign

113,465114,700114,667112,873105,633103,975 United States

1,203,7041,153,8841,181,4711,219,1241,214,0901,217,750 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines and Vietnam are no longer included in the swine and pork PSD.



April 2009

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oct

2009

Apr

none

Total Imports


7522580136196181 Mexico

7575861240139 Ukraine


212261 EU-27

112211 Canada


002212 Others

963835956537630413 Total Foreign

7,0007,8009,34810,0048,7638,191 United States

7,9638,63510,30410,5419,3938,604 Total

none

Total Exports

7,0007,8009,35710,0328,7778,215 Canada


1,2001,0001,554901967637 EU-27


001303 Others

9,90110,20012,55712,54611,46710,624 Total Foreign


9,95610,37012,65512,68311,63210,778 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines and Vietnam are no longer included in the swine PSD.

2/ From 2009, Chile is no longer included in the swine PSD.



April 2009

Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview of the situation. Data Modifications Based on new information, the following countries have significant historical (pre-2007) changes to the PSD: Cattle/Beef:

• India and Nicaragua Broiler Meat:

• Guatemala Conversion Rates

Beef/Veal Pork

Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

Beef/Veal Exceptions:

• Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay: Exports: 0201, 0202 – 1.40; 021020 and 160250 - 1.79. Imports: 1.40 for ALL beef/veal codes

• EU: Exports and Imports: 0201, 0202 – 1.40; 021020 and 160250 - 1.79.

• Canada, Japan: Exports: 1.40 for ALL beef/veal codes Imports: 0201, 0202 – 1.40; 021020 and 160250 - 1.79

Broiler Turkey and Other Poultry Conversion Rate 1 1 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed and Salted: 1602.32,

0210.99

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31

Broiler/Turkey Exceptions:

• U.S., Brazil, and Argentina (1997-2004): Chicken Paw Exports Excluded using -

Hong Kong Imports/Exports: 02071410 China Imports: 02071422 U.S. Exports: 0207140045


April 2009

• Argentina (2005 to present): Exports exclude Argentina Paw Exports using Argentina Government sources.

• China: Imports include Hong Kong Broiler Meat Exports.

• Hong Kong: Excludes re-exports of Broiler Meat.

• Canada: Imports exclude Spent Hens: 0207131000, 0207111000, 0207141000, 0207141010, 0207141020, 0207141030, 0207141049, 0207141090, 1602321110, and 1602329220.

• EU-27: Imports include Salted Poultry from South America and Thailand: 02109939.

• Mexico: Imports include Meat Sausage: 160232 and 1601000020

Assumptions • BSE: Forecasts assume a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform

encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of April 9, 2009. • AI: Poultry trade forecasts reflect policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks of avian

influenza (AI) as of April 9, 2009. • FMD: Forecasts reflect the status of the foot and mouth disease (FMD) situation in Brazil as of

April 9, 2009 and any resulting trade restrictions. Technical Notes Turkey Meat: Turkey meat summary tables are included in the circular for the convenience of readers but have not been revised since the October 2008 release. The turkey meat data series is only revised annually. CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. Per Capita Consumption: The Per Capita Consumption tables are only published with the October circular. However, tables can be replicated/updated using “Domestic Consumption” data in the PSD and Census population data. Census population data is available in Excel format from USDA-Economic Research Service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since March 2009 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx.


April 2009

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis. Additional information on international trade of agricultural products can be found at: http://www.fas.usda.gov. Situation and outlook information on the U.S. livestock and poultry industry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/. Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases of “Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade”. The next release of this circular will be in October 2009. Questions regarding this forecast as well as world trade of livestock and poultry products may be directed to the following staff: Michelle DeGraaf

(202) 720-7285

[email protected]

Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products)

Claire Mezoughem

(202) 720-7715

[email protected]

Cattle, Beef, Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hides and skins)

Lesley Taulman

(202) 720-2781

[email protected]

Swine and Pork


April 2009

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp

http://www.fas.usda.gov/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp

mailto:[email protected]



Documents

World Meat Import Demand to Fall - Cornell University · 2009/4/16 · vegetable proteins), fewer meals at restaurants and smaller portions. In the case of South Korea, for example,