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Wine 2023:Surplus? Or Shortage?
Dave ChambersWine Marketing Enterprises, Inc.
November 8, 2013
“And In This Corner”
“Shortage!” (Oct 22nd report)
• Australian Analysts Tom Kierath and Crystal Wang
• Global shortage of 300 million cases
“And In This Corner”
“Hogwash!”• “Industry’s in fine
shape” Jon Bonne, SF Chronicle
• “Just offsetting over-supply” Rob McMillin, SVB
• “Supply to vary by price point” Intl Business Times
Evidence Of Shortage
• Growing demand– China– Gen X, Millennials
• Shrinking vineyards• Global inventory depletion
Growing Demand
Growing Demand - China
Growing Demand – By Age
Shrinking Supply
Global Inventory Depletion
Round 1 – Shortage!
Not So Fast!
Round 2 – The Rebuttal
• “The Morgan Stanley’s report is just wrong” (Rob McMillan, Silicon Valley Bank)
• “Global production at its highest in 7 years” (Intl. Org of Vine & Wine, (OIC) France)
• “Bulk wine prices are stable… there is no shortage” (Rabo Bank, New York)
10-31 SFGate.com
WSJ Market Watch
Rebuttal – Alternate Demand
Rebuttal – Surplus Product
CBC News July, 2013
The Winery?
Treasury Wine Estates• The total write-off was $145 million, USD (
WSJ, July 15, 2013)
• “We overestimated U.S. Demand”• Stockholder lawsuit pending• Oct 31st - BofA/Merrill Lynch urges
Treasury to Divest of Beringer ASAP (Wine Industry Insight)
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict
The spinning of looming shortages to promote wine stocks… could work again for those unfamiliar with the public wine stock frenzy/crash/burn of the 1990s. That debacle was driven by a similar shortage myth, [creating] a huge wine tsunami in 2001.
Wine Industry Insight 10-31-13
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict
• What bank lists Treasury Wine Estates as their top “consumer pick”?
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict
• Morgan Stanley, of course.
• Analysts were not made available for comment
Wine Shortage Knockout?
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