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Wine 2023: Surplus? Or Shortage?. Dave Chambers Wine Marketing Enterprises, Inc. November 8, 2013. “And In This Corner”. “Shortage!” (Oct 22 nd report) Australian Analysts Tom Kierath and Crystal Wang Global shortage of 300 million cases. “And In This Corner”. “Hogwash!” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Wine 2023:Surplus? Or Shortage?
Dave ChambersWine Marketing Enterprises, Inc.
November 8, 2013
“And In This Corner”“Shortage!” (Oct 22nd
report)• Australian Analysts Tom
Kierath and Crystal Wang
• Global shortage of 300 million cases
“And In This Corner”“Hogwash!”
• “Industry’s in fine shape” Jon Bonne, SF Chronicle
• “Just offsetting over-supply” Rob McMillin, SVB
• “Supply to vary by price point” Intl Business Times
Evidence Of Shortage• Growing demand
– China– Gen X, Millennials
• Shrinking vineyards• Global inventory depletion
Growing Demand
Growing Demand - China
Growing Demand – By Age
Shrinking Supply
Global Inventory Depletion
Round 1 – Shortage!
Not So Fast!
Round 2 – The Rebuttal• “The Morgan Stanley’s report is just
wrong” (Rob McMillan, Silicon Valley Bank)
• “Global production at its highest in 7 years” (Intl. Org of Vine & Wine, (OIC) France)
• “Bulk wine prices are stable… there is no shortage” (Rabo Bank, New York)
10-31 SFGate.comWSJ Market Watch
Rebuttal – Alternate Demand
Rebuttal – Surplus Product
CBC News July, 2013
The Winery?Treasury Wine Estates
• The total write-off was $145 million, USD (WSJ, July 15, 2013)
• “We overestimated U.S. Demand”• Stockholder lawsuit pending• Oct 31st - BofA/Merrill Lynch urges
Treasury to Divest of Beringer ASAP (Wine Industry Insight)
Rebuttal – Interest ConflictThe spinning of looming shortages to promote wine stocks… could work again for those unfamiliar with the public wine stock frenzy/crash/burn of the 1990s. That debacle was driven by a similar shortage myth, [creating] a huge wine tsunami in 2001.
Wine Industry Insight 10-31-13
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict• What bank lists
Treasury Wine Estates as their top “consumer pick”?
Rebuttal – Interest Conflict• Morgan Stanley, of
course.• Analysts were not
made available for comment
Wine Shortage Knockout?