What’s a Testbed?

What’s a Testbed?

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Funded Title:

Super-Regional Testbed to Improve Models of Environmental Processes for the US Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts

Translated Title:

Make Computer Models that Simulate Processes in Coastal Waters Easier to Use.

The Title Slide..

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

1Yr - $4 million through NOAA/IOOS to SURA

Program Calendar – May 2010 to May 2011

64 individuals from 20 Universities & 2 Companies

Multi-Agency involvement and benefit

What is the Testbed?

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Less about the models than the process. Consensus process for Transition to Ops Value Added… Enable Modeling and Analysis IOOS Subsystem Portfolio

What are the goals of this Testbed?

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Doug Levin, IOOS

10 members

24 members20 members21 members

25 members

3 members

The Testbed Teams

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Liz Smith

Liz Smith, SURA

Testbed Advisory Evaluation

Group

Review

Suggest

Advise

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Eric BaylorAijun Zhang

NOAA/NESDIS/STARNOAA/COOP&SVC/PMAB

Coastal Inundation

Waves + Tides + Barometric Pressure

High Water Marks

Atlantic & Gulf Coasts Tropical & Extra Tropical

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Scituate Harbor, MA Cameron, LA

7 EST Dec. 27

Extra Tropical StormSuper-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Scituate Harbor, MA

Inundation Successes

• Grids, forcing, and observational data for specific storms are being shared for community testing.

• Direct comparisons are being made between operational inundation models and academic community models.

• Community building by modeling groups. Working together, sometimes for the first time….

• Improved academic - government partnerships

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

A Proxy for Comparing Hydrodynamic Models

Estuarine HypoxiaChesapeake

Shelf Hypoxia

Gulf of Mexico

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

“Reduce uncertainty about the relationship between nitrogen and phosphorus loads and the formation, extent,, duration, and severity of the hypoxic zone, to inform adaptive management.”

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Shallow Separate from Deep Hypoxia?Shelf Hypoxia

Where Does the Deep Hypoxic Water Come From?Shelf Hypoxia

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Picture of Nepheloid

Early “Insights” into the “Deeps”…

Summer near bottom residence > 4 months Most near bottom water tracks near the shelf-break

Filament structures are observed in the flow

Along track variations in oxygen are observed

There may be no “source” of hypoxic bottom water. Hypoxia may happen to water that is already there….

Shelf HypoxiaSuper-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Standard Sensor DataStandard Data StorageStructured & Unstructured Consensus Skill AssessmentStandardized Output Common Transition Protocol

The Cyber Tool Box

Standardize Everything

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Different Data Format In.. DIF

Universal Format Out

Cyber Toolbox – Make the Data Universally Usable

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Cyber Tool Box – Standardize the Output

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Bottom Salinity Bottom DO

Glider/Model Comparison Tool

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Salinity

IMEDS – Interactive Model Evaluation & Diagnostic System

Target Analysis

Cyber Tool Box - Model Skill Assessment

Measured Wave Height

Mod

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Wav

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Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

> 5 Hydrodynamic models > 3 Biological (DO) models 2004 data from > 28 CBP stations

Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!

Dissolved Oxygen

Stratification

Estuarine Hypoxia

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Hypoxic Volume from Simple (1-term) vs. Complex (ICM) Models

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

• Simple 1 term model for DO reproduces seasonal variability in hypoxic volume about as well as complex watershed + water quality model.

• Only weak correlation between DO and stratification

– DO is not highly sensitive to changes in freshwater inflow

• Extent of hypoxia zone is strongly related to wind direction –

• North Atlantic Oscillation?

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

Hypoxic Volume Increases in 1985 Nitrate Load decreases from 1970’s

Flow Average Increases Slightly

Hypotheses – Is Hypoxia correlated with NAO?

http://testbed.sura.org

One Stop Shop URL

CONOPS for R2O

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

• The model must meet a demonstrated need.

• The model results must be timely and reliable.

• The model results must be “more correct”, showing decreased uncertainty.

• The model must be useable, incorporating standardized terms and formats

• The Operational Center must establish a dialog with the modelers.

• Resources needed for transition must be identified.

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

CONOPS for R2O

Cyber Tool Box for Model Analysis and Comparison

One-Stop-URL - Testing, Visualization, Communication

Consensus Process for Transition to Operations

Year 1 Leave Behinds – May, 2011

Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

What’s in the Testbed Future?

• Expand to more regions & more coastal issues

• Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation approaches, model coupling)

• Build out the cyberinfrastructure (more functionality, toolboxes for other languages, web services, outreach, training)

• Find a way to sustain testbed activities

Thank you. doug.levin@noaa.gov