What is Goliath up to and how can David benefit from it?...Delivery ASAP ASAP End of 2013 End of...

What is Goliath up to and how

can David benefit from it?

ReGenerate

Introduction

• Utility WRA

• Scalability

• Reduce cost

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Typical Project

80 MW 40 x 2.0 MW Turbines 3 x 60m masts 1 x 80 m masts

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So you’ve got your data…

•60 m mast: $20-40k installed/tower •80 m mast : $80-100k installed/tower •Routine maintenance: $5-10k/year/tower •Corrective maintenance: $5-10k/year/tower •Communication: $1k/year/tower •60 m decommission: $ 5-10k •80 m decommission: $10-30k

Total tower costs over 5 years: ~$425k Cost per MW=$5.3k

You can go cheaper, but you have to be lucky or good.

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…but what it is worth?

• Data processing • $1-2k/tower/year

• Assessments • Informative

• Verification

• 1 / year?

• $5-30k per

• Total for project: ~$130k

• Cost/MW: $ 1.6k

Don’t collect it, if you can’t maintain and analyze it!

ReGenerate

It can be scaled down effectively…

• 80 MW: $555k • 4 masts • 5 years • 5 studies

• 20 MW: $139k • 2 masts • 2 years • 1 study

• 5 MW: $35k • 1 mast • 1 year • 1 study

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Analysis

Must spend every penny wisely.

ReGenerate

…but it rarely is.

• Lacking expertise

• Need solid planning

• No clear goals

• Scope creep

• No budget for ongoing costs

• Bad or no advice

• Penny wise and pound foolish

It is better to do a small thing well than a big thing poorly.

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How low can you go?

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Analysis

ReGenerate

When the party is over…

•60 m mast: $20-40k installed/tower •80 m mast : $80-100k installed/tower •Routine maintenance: $5-10k/year/tower •Corrective maintenance: $5-10k/year/tower •Communication: $1k/year/tower •60 m decommission: $ 5-10k •80 m decommission: $10-30k

Total tower costs over 5 years: ~$425k Cost per MW=$5.3k

You can go cheaper, but you have to be lucky or good.

ReGenerate

…somebody has to clean up

•Two options •Carefully decommission and stored •Cut it down •Difference is ~$5k

•How many 10 m masts can you get from a 60 m tower? •20 m? •30 m? •What modifications are necessary?

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Challenges remain

•Late to the party •Installers want to hold towers •Installation •Shipping •Economies of scale •Gov’t funds buying used equipment? •Need cooperation from manufacturer

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Is desperate too strong?

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Sensors are consistent

Part Quantity (per kit)

#40C anemometer or similar (used Part) 1

#200p wind vane or similar (used part) 1

1.53m or similar boom (used Part) 2

25' 2C Sensor Cable (used) 1

25' 3C Sensor Cable (used) 1

Ideal SS 6X500 Clamp (new) 2

Number 5 15 100 200

Unit Cost $300 $200 $75 $70

Total $1,500 $3,000 $7,500 $14,000

Delivery ASAP ASAP End of 2013 End of 2014

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Summary

• “Optics” are fantastic

• Needs proof of concept

• Many unanswered questions

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Questions?

Chris Nuckols

Chris@regenerateconsulting.com

Phone: (712) 577-1825

Thank You

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Optimize early and often

Best times to optimize?

• Define project area

• Major milestones

• “Final” layout

• Now

Because optimization is so cheap compared to the potential value, ROI is always high.

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weaknesses

• Just a tool

• Only as good as data

• Butterfly effect

• Potential for overestimation

• Perfect can be the enemy of good

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Work in progress

• $/MWh

• Calculation vs. rule of thumb

• Early and often

• ROI

• Requires expertise

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What’s it worth?

• Improve project

• Lower Uncertainty

• Financing

• Comfort

• Is it worth it?

Don’t collect it, if you can’t maintain and analyze it!