What does a future Australian City look like? · What does a future Australian City look like? How...

Leaders in Property Intelligence.

charterkc.com.au

ADVISORY.

RESEARCH.

VALUATIONS.

PROJECTS.

What does a future Australian City look like? How to plan for a population of 62 million by 2100

National Housing Conference

October 2015

Leaders in Property Intelligence.

Percentage of Urban Population by Countries

2015 – Australia Today

89%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% o

f T

ota

l P

op

ula

tio

n

Country

Belgium

Netherlands

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 3

2015 – Urbanisation & Concentration

4% 5%

12%

20% 23%

27% 28%

35%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

China India USA Germany France UK Canada Australia

% of Total Population in Two Largest Cities

7%

5%

17%

12%

23%

6% 7%

11% 10%

1%

48% 29%

0% 3% 10% 5% 4% 0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

USA

AUS

Mid-size cities

Urban Population Distribution by Metropolitan Area Size (Aus v USA)

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 4

2015 - Housing Impacts of Concentration

$464,860

$526,430

$639,770

$540,020

$332,720

$819,720

$620,020

$1,014,530

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

Adelaide,SA

Brisbane,QLD

Canberra,ACT

Darwin,NT

Hobart,TAS

Melbourne,VIC

Perth,WA

Sydney, NSW

Med

ian

Pri

ce

Median House Prices – Australian Capital Cities

www.corelogic.com.au (Sept quarter 2015)

• Structural constraints to provide new housing at a reasonable cost because of its population concentration (particularly Sydney & Melbourne)

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 5

2015 – 2050 Continued Concentration

High Risk

Low Risk

High Risk

Low Risk

Weighted probability of job Loss through Computerisation & Automation in LGAs of Melbourne and Sydney

Australia’s Future Workforce; CEDA June 2015

• 40% of workforce has high probability of disappearing in the next 10-15 years • Jobs least at risk to automation are based in major capitals (Sydney & Melbourne)

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 6

2050

7.7 MILLION EACH

SYDNEY MELBOURNE

2050

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 7

Where? 62 Million @ 2100

25 M

37 M?

SYDNEY & MELB @ 12.5m EACH (40% of Total Pop)

Brisbane @12.5m?

Perth @ 7.5m?

Adelaide @ 5m?

Darwin @ 5m?

Hobart @ 2m?

Canberra @ 2m?

Regionals –@3m?

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 8

62 Million @ 2100 – Issues & Opportunities

• Increasing concentration of population in two largest cities is a high risk approach to

managing Australian cities

• Costs of agglomeration (congestion / affordability) plus changing work structure will

provide impetus to mid size cities

• Alternatives to households seeking to avoid high housing costs in the largest cities,

while still offering job opportunities

• Competitive advantages to be exploited

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 9

Australian Cities in 2100

? Development of Northern

Australia

Continued expansion of Capitals

Rise of Mid-Size /Regional

Cities

Growth in Second

Tier Cities

New Cities

Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 10

Role of Planning - 62 million @ 2100

WHAT? HOW?

Recognise evolving role of

Australian cities in the national

and global context

Evidence based approach to

housing policy

Regional Planning (over Neighbourhood Planning)

Minister for Cities

Reform of Federation

National Growth Agenda