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Leaders in Property Intelligence.
charterkc.com.au
ADVISORY.
RESEARCH.
VALUATIONS.
PROJECTS.
What does a future Australian City look like? How to plan for a population of 62 million by 2100
National Housing Conference
October 2015
Leaders in Property Intelligence.
Percentage of Urban Population by Countries
2015 – Australia Today
89%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f T
ota
l P
op
ula
tio
n
Country
Belgium
Netherlands
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 3
2015 – Urbanisation & Concentration
4% 5%
12%
20% 23%
27% 28%
35%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
China India USA Germany France UK Canada Australia
% of Total Population in Two Largest Cities
7%
5%
17%
12%
23%
6% 7%
11% 10%
1%
48% 29%
0% 3% 10% 5% 4% 0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
USA
AUS
Mid-size cities
Urban Population Distribution by Metropolitan Area Size (Aus v USA)
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 4
2015 - Housing Impacts of Concentration
$464,860
$526,430
$639,770
$540,020
$332,720
$819,720
$620,020
$1,014,530
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
Adelaide,SA
Brisbane,QLD
Canberra,ACT
Darwin,NT
Hobart,TAS
Melbourne,VIC
Perth,WA
Sydney, NSW
Med
ian
Pri
ce
Median House Prices – Australian Capital Cities
www.corelogic.com.au (Sept quarter 2015)
• Structural constraints to provide new housing at a reasonable cost because of its population concentration (particularly Sydney & Melbourne)
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 5
2015 – 2050 Continued Concentration
High Risk
Low Risk
High Risk
Low Risk
Weighted probability of job Loss through Computerisation & Automation in LGAs of Melbourne and Sydney
Australia’s Future Workforce; CEDA June 2015
• 40% of workforce has high probability of disappearing in the next 10-15 years • Jobs least at risk to automation are based in major capitals (Sydney & Melbourne)
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 6
2050
7.7 MILLION EACH
SYDNEY MELBOURNE
2050
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 7
Where? 62 Million @ 2100
25 M
37 M?
SYDNEY & MELB @ 12.5m EACH (40% of Total Pop)
Brisbane @12.5m?
Perth @ 7.5m?
Adelaide @ 5m?
Darwin @ 5m?
Hobart @ 2m?
Canberra @ 2m?
Regionals –@3m?
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 8
62 Million @ 2100 – Issues & Opportunities
• Increasing concentration of population in two largest cities is a high risk approach to
managing Australian cities
• Costs of agglomeration (congestion / affordability) plus changing work structure will
provide impetus to mid size cities
• Alternatives to households seeking to avoid high housing costs in the largest cities,
while still offering job opportunities
• Competitive advantages to be exploited
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 9
Australian Cities in 2100
? Development of Northern
Australia
Continued expansion of Capitals
Rise of Mid-Size /Regional
Cities
Growth in Second
Tier Cities
New Cities
Leaders in Property Intelligence. 11/4/2015 10
Role of Planning - 62 million @ 2100
WHAT? HOW?
Recognise evolving role of
Australian cities in the national
and global context
Evidence based approach to
housing policy
Regional Planning (over Neighbourhood Planning)
Minister for Cities
Reform of Federation
National Growth Agenda