Weekly Market Update 10-18-17phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/PWA10-18-17.pdf · Weekly Market Update...

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Weekly Market Update 10-18-17

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Disclaimer: The informationcontained on thisnewsletter is formarketing purposesonly.Nothingcontained in this newsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

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Lastweekwewrotethefollowing…

ThenextlegupforOilishere.Oil,likeallcommodities,willbenefitfrominflationinthecomingmonths.However,asoneofthemorevolatileassetclasses,thebestapproachtotakewithOilorOil-relatedinvestmentsisswingtrading:asystemoftradingbywhichyouenterapositionforaperiod,getoutonceit’soverbought,andthenre-enteritonceithascorrected.

SincethattimeOilhasrisenover1.5%toover$52abarrelwhereitcurrentlysits.Wemightgetabriefconsolidationherebut$54abarrelisournextstop.

Basedonthis,thereistremendousvalueintheExplorationandProduction(E&P)spaceforoil.TakealookatCrescentPointEnergy(CPG).Thecompanyhasbeengettingcrushedsince2014basedonadropinincome(remember,Oilfellfrom$105perbarrelto$30perbarreloverthesametimeperiod).However,CPGlookstobeonthevergeofprofitabilitywithitstrailingtwelvemonths’lossatjusthalfofwhatitwas

Weekly Market Update (10-18-17)

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thistimelastyear($416millionvs.$870million).ThemarketisalreadysensingthiswithCPGshareshavingbrokenoutofatwoyearfallingwedgepattern.They’vesincestagedabriefpullbackbutarenowpreparingfortheirnextlegup.

Lookingatanoverlayofthiscompany’schartvs.Oilprices,youcanseeamassivedivergence.Putsimply,CPGsharesaretradingasthoughOilwasat$30abarrelinsteadofthe$52atwhichitcurrentlytrades.

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Thisisadeepvalueplay.Today,CPGtradesatthe“bargainbasement”valuationoffivetimesEnterpriseValuetoEBITDAandjustthreetimescashflow.Atthesevaluations,CPGcouldaffordtotakeitselfprivate(itsEBITDAof$1.3billionwouldmorethancovera10%interestpayment,or$770million,onitsEnterpriseValueof$7.7billion).Timetobuy.ActiontoTake:BuyCrescentPointEnergy(CPG).AnotherplayisBaytexEnergyCorp(BTE).Hereagain,wehaveamid-levelE&Poilplaythatisonthecuspofreturningtoprofitability(trailingtwelvemonthearningsare-$378millionvs.-$485millionthistimelastyear),andtradingatabargainbasementvaluation(sixtimesEnterpriseValuetoEBITDAandlessthatthreetimescashflow).Onceagainthechartshowsacompanythatispoisedtomakeamajormovetotheupside,withabreakoutfromamulti-yearfallingwedgepattern(bluelines)andformerresistanceturningintosupport(greenline).

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Andonceagain,thereisamassivedivergencebetweenthecompany’ssharepriceandOil’sprice.

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ActiontoTake:BuyBaytexEnergyCorp(BTE).Elsewhereinthemarkets,the$USDhascaughtabidonrumorsthatPresidentTrumpisconsideringeitherKevinWarshorJohnTaylorasthenextFedChairtobeappointedinearly2018.BothWarshandTaylorareuber-hawks.WarshhasrepeatedlystatedthattheFed’scurrentloosemoneypoliciesarehorriblymisguided.Belowisaquotefromarecentop-edhewrotefortheWallStreetJournal.

Theconductofmonetarypolicyinrecentyearshasbeendeeplyflawed.U.S.economicgrowthlagspriorrecoveries,fallingshortofforecastsanddeterioratinginthemostrecentquarters.https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-federal-reserve-needs-new-thinking-1472076212

JohnTaylor,ontheotherhand,iswellknownforhavingdevelopedthe“TaylorRule,”amodelforpricingthecorrectlevelforinterestrates.Bytheway,themodelcurrentlystatesthatFedshouldhaveratesat3.75%today,insteadofjust1%.ApparentlyTaylormadequiteanimpressiononPresidentTrump.

Taylorofthe“TaylorRule”isnowfrontrunnerforFedChair.

• PresidentgushedaboutStanfordeconomistaftermeeting• FormerFedgovernorWarshremainsonshortlist,peoplesay

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/taylor-is-said-to-impress-trump-for-fed-chairman-as-warsh-slips

Ifthesetwoindividualsareinfactthefront-runnersforfutureFedChairs,thenPresidentTrumpislookingforextremelyhawkish,fiscalconservatives.The$USDseemstobetakingtheserumorsseriously:ithasralliedstronglybasedonthesedevelopments.

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Thisrallyhashurtpreciousmetals.BelowisachartoftheUSDollar(blackline)andinvertedGoldprices(bluelineriseswhenGoldfalls).Asyoucansee,themovehigherinthe$USDhaspulleddownGold.

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However,thismovelooksjustaboutdone.The$USDhasMAJORresistancerightabovecurrentlevels.Theoddsofthegreenbackbreakingthroughthatbluelineandstartinganotherbullrunaresmall.Thepotentialforfutureratehikesdon’tmatterforthiscurrencyrightnow(theFedhikedthemthreetimessinceNovember2016andthe$USDhasfallen11%overthesametimeperiod).

Whichmeans…

Thenextlegupforpreciousmetalsshouldbeginshortly.Goldhasmultiplebandsofsupportrightbelowitscurrentlevels.

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ThesamegoesforSilver.

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Bothpreciousmetals’“minerstobullion”ratiosarelookingVERYbullishaswell.

Putsimply,ourcallforhigherpreciousmetalspricesistakinganextraweekbasedonthepotentialofaFedhawkasfutureFedChairman.ButthemarketsarebiggerthantheFed.Andtheforcesthathaveunleashedinflationarenotgoingtobehaltedbythepotentialforadditionalratehikes(atleastnotuntillate2018).

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ThenextlegupforbothGoldandSilvershouldhitwithinthenext5-7days.Andmyfinalyear-endtargetsare$1420forGoldand$19forSilver.Bothofthosearewellworththewait.Solet’sbepatientwithoutPreciousMetalsportfolio.

Thisconcludesthisweek’sMarketUpdateforPrivateWealthAdvisory.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayafterthemarket’scloseinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Iguaranteeit’soneyouwon’twanttomiss.Untilthen…

GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

STOCKS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon10/18/17.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $13.50 -13% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.03

-7%

PublicStorage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 $214.67 -3%

Verizon VZ 4/26/17 $47.17 $48.65 4%

VietnamETF VNM 6/7/17 $14.64 $15.42 5% PioneerNaturalResources PXD 6/15/17 $158.02 $145.09 -8%

SouthwesternEnergy SWN 7/19/17 $6.17 $5.47 -11%

EOGResources EOG 7/19/17 $95.00 $96.66 2%

NaturalGasETF UNG 8/2/17 $6.34 $6.34 0% EnergyTransferPartners

ETP 8/2/17 $21.00 $17.76 -13%

EnterpriseProductsPartners

EPD 8/9/17 $26.08 $25.48 -2%

UraniumETF URA 8/29/17 $13.53 $12.71 -6%

Cameco CCJ 8/29/17 $9.88 $9.11 -8%

DBCommodityETF DBC 9/13/17 $15.26 $15.59 2%

FreeportMcMoRan FCX 10/4/17 $14.53 $14.83 2%

ArcelorMittal MT 10/4/17 $26.50 $29.00 9%

BHPBilliton BHP 10/4/17 $41.13 $41.50 1%

USOilFund USO 10/11/17 $10.32 $10.48 2%

HelixEnergySolutions HLX 10/11/17 $7.65 $7.90 2%

Halliburton HAL 10/11/17 $45.37 $43.77 -4%

CrescentPointEnergy CPG 10/18/17 $7.49 NEW BUY!

BaytexEnergyCorp BTE 10/18/17 $2.66 NEW BUY!

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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,282.00 14% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $17.02 5% WheatonPreciousMetalsCorp** WPM 10/5/16 $20.83 $20.00

-4%

FirstMajesticSilver*** AG 5/12/17 $7.91 $6.91 -13%

GoldMinerETF GDX 9/20/17 $23.50 $23.33 -1%

GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 9/20/17 $34.11 $33.57 -2%

KlondexMines KLDX 9/20/17 $3.61 $3.61 0%

WesdomeGoldMines WDO.TO 9/20/17 $2.21 $1.98 -10%

Iamgold IAG 9/28/17 $6.40 $5.70 -11%

SilverMiningETF SIL 10/4/17 $33.96 $33.38 -2% SilverMiningJuniorsETF SILJ 10/4/17 $12.22 $11.72 -4%

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon10/18/17.Gainsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97**Averagepriceof$19.07and$22.59***Averagepriceof$7.11and$8.70

BONDS PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

LongTreasuryETF TLT 7/27/17 $123.16 $125.09 2%

EmergingMarketBondsETF EMB 7/27/17 $115.17

$116.292%

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SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO

CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

CURRENTPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $114.05 $113.82 0%

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon10/18/17.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $31.16 -33% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $30.84 -43% Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 $149.51 -10% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $140.92 $159.76 -13% Facebook FB 5/31/17 $151.63 $176.03 -16% Alphabet GOOGL 5/31/17 $987.72 $1,012.74 -3% HomebuildersETF XHB 8/9/17 $37.94 $40.28 -6%

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POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 1/31/17 $14.59 5%CliffsNatResources(FIRSTHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/13/17 $12.10 19%

Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $5.93 21%Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8%CliffsNatResources(SECONDHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/23/17 $11.13 10%

Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 3/8/17 $81.28 -8% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 3/8/17 $27.83

9%

NaturalGasETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8%

EmergingmarketsETF EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 4/10/17 $39.20 7%

BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 4/10/17 $19.04 23%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 4/12/17 $15.90 9% Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 4/12/17 $11.48 7% CoalETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 4/12/17 $14.51 15% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 4/12/17 $11.32

10%

RoyalGold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.50 4/12/17 $74.14 4%

SilverMiners SIL 3/15/17 $35.81 4/12/17 $37.60 5%

USSteel(SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.97 4/13/17 $29.42 8% CopperMinersETF(SHORT) COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 4/18/17 $21.02 7%

FinancialsETF(SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 4/26/17 $24.06 -2%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

PeruETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 5/17/17 $34.775%

BrazilETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.53 5/17/17 $39.90 6%UtilitiesETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.35 5/17/17 $51.58 5%SolarEnergyETF TAN 4/19/17 $17.20 5/17/17 $18.00 5%RoyalGold RGLD 4/26/17 $69.92 5/17/17 $79.90 14% SouthwesternEnergy SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 5/24/17 $6.76 -17% GulfportEnergy GPOR 3/30/17 $17.17 5/24/17 $15.47 -10% USOilFund USO 4/26/17 $10.37 5/24/17 $10.60 2% ExxonMobil XOM 5/3/17 $82.70 5/24/17 $82.29 0% EnergyETF(SHORT) XLE 5/24/17 $67.56 6/5/17 $65.05 4% EmergingMktsBondETF EMB 11/21/16 $109.82 6/7/17 $115.95 8% LongUSTreasuries TLT 11/21/16 $121.05 6/15/17 $126.10 5% NuveenEnhancedFreeMuniCreditFund NVG 1/2/14

$13.126/22/17 $15.22 40%

RioTinto RIO 6/19/17 $39.48 7/10/17 $43.48 10% ClearEnergyETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 7/10/17 $4.25 10% EnterpriseProductsPartners

EPD 6/22/17 $26.00 7/17/17$27.70 7%

USoilFund USO 6/28/17 $9.20 7/17/17 $9.57 4% ChinaETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 7/24/17 $28.08 12% Uranium URA 6/15/17 $12.76 7/24/17 $14.28 12% Cameco CCJ 6/15/17 $9.14 7/24/17 $9.95 10% USSteel X 6/19/17 $20.83 7/24/17 $23.69 14% FreeportMcMoran FCX 6/19/17 $11.53 7/25/17 $14.08 22% BiotechETF IBB 4/26/17 $296.15 7/25/17 $324.86 10% Baidu BIDU 6/7/17 $187.53 7/27/17 $200.10 7% PeruETF EPU 6/22/17 $33.64 7/27/17 $35.61 6% Chevron CVX 6/22/17 $104.45 8/2/17 $110.86 6% EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 8/2/17 $114.61 5% USDollarETF UUP 8/2/17 $24.08 8/23/17 $24.18 0%

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

GoldMinersETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.45 9/5/17 $25.09 12%GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 10/5/16 $34.72 9/5/17 $36.92 11%RandgoldResources GOLD 5/12/17 $93.25 9/5/17 $104.90 12%KlondexMines KLDX 8/10/17 $2.94 9/5/17 $3.55 21%WesdomeGoldMines WDO.TO 8/10/17 $2.18 9/5/17 $2.37 9% NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 9/6/17 $4.18 11% BarrickGold ABX 4/26/17 $16.92 9/6/17 $18.23 8% SilverMiningETF SIL 4/26/17 $34.44 9/6/17 $35.75 4% SilverStandard SSRI 4/26/17 $9.94 9/6/17 $10.70 8% Transocean RIG 6/15/17 $8.56 9/26/17 $10.10 18% HelixEnergySolutions HLX 7/19/17 $6.16 9/26/17 $7.54 22% OilServicesETF OIH 8/23/17 $22.07 9/26/17 $25.75 17% Apache APA 8/23/17 $40.33 9/26/17 $44.72 11% Halliburton HAL 8/23/17 $39.06 9/26/17 $45.69 17%